The FiveThirtyEight forecast shows Joe Biden’s win probability down to 70%, after some mediocre polls for him this morning. He had been hovering around 73% for much of the last week.
Nate Silver: “First, Biden does not appear to be getting much of a convention bounce. He’s at +8.8 in our national poll average (still quite good) but that’s only up from +8.4 before the conventions.”
“Second, Biden has gotten some not-so-spectacular swing state polls lately. His lead in Florida is down to +5.4 and in Pennsylvania to +5.8, which remain the most likely tipping-point states. Not bad, but the Electoral College – popular vote gap would appear to be widening a bit.”
A big caveat: “This is not based on the world’s most spectacular set of polling, especially at the state level. And almost all of it is online panels, with a robopoll thrown in here and there; basically no live caller polls since the pre-convention round from ~10-14 days ago.”
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