Political Wire

Texas PAC Pours Even More Cash Into the Lone Star State

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Punchbowl News: “The Senate Republican leadership-backed super PAC boosting Ken Paxton in Texas could spend as much as $200 million between now and Nov. 3, according to sources familiar with their efforts.”

“Texas PAC, which is run and partially funded by Senate Leadership Fund, has already booked $117 million in ads in the Lone Star State to try to help Paxton compete with Democratic state Rep. James Talarico. Much will depend on how much SLF can raise for Texas PAC.”

“Paxton hasn’t led Talarico in a single public poll since mid-August. And here’s the scary part for Republicans: private GOP polling mirrors the public surveys.”

The Hot U.S. Economy Can’t Be Cooled

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“The U.S. economy keeps powering through inflation, tariffs and higher borrowing costs, defying a run-up in Treasury yields and a Fed rate increase. That has the bond market spooked,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“The usual economic brakes aren’t slowing growth, hiring or an AI investment boom that looks to be unstoppable. To some, AI’s potential returns seem so bright that even steep interest rates won’t slow down tech companies’ investments.”

Trump Eyes an October Campaign Rally — In Alabama

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“President Donald Trump is tentatively set to visit Alabama for a political rally next week, a curious move in a deep-red state as his party fights for control of Congress in several battlegrounds,” Politico reports.

“The event is penciled in for Oct. 2 in Mobile, but the plans have not yet been finalized and are subject to change.”

“An October rally in Alabama would be a somewhat confounding decision for the president. The GOP has found itself having to play defense in their own territory recently, with Democratic candidates are seriously competing for Senate seats in normally red states like Alaska and Texas. But Alabama has not been considered a state where Democrats have any real shot at winning any statewide office.”

There Is No ‘Blue Wave,’ But There Is a ‘Red Undertow’

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Charlie Cook: “Unless you’re politically tone-deaf, you’re by now aware that there are ugly storm clouds ahead for Republicans in this midterm election, now just 43 days away. But how big the storm is and where the destruction will take place is still unknowable. While many have long predicted that Democrats will enjoy a ‘blue wave’ election, I think of it more as a ‘red undertow,’ which will pull many Republicans under and significantly trim the margins for many others.”

“A blue wave implies an endorsement or affirmation of Democrats and their policies. But Democrats’ brand is still in tatters from 2021-2025, particularly 2021 and 2022, when they not only had President Biden in the White House but also majorities in the Senate and House. Fortunately for Democrats, this election will in most cases not be about them.”

Quote of the Day

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“It’s going to take a Herculean effort to hold the seat. The Monday morning quarterbacking is going to be biblical. The hand-wringing and the blaming. Paxton will blame Cornyn. Trump will blame Paxton. Trump should blame himself.”

— A veteran Texas GOP operative, quoted by Politico, on the Texas Senate race.

Fighting Engulfs Yemen

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“After months largely on the sidelines in the U.S.-led war against Iran, the Houthi rebels mounted a stunning offensive earlier this month along Yemen’s Red Sea coast that sent global oil markets reeling,” the Washington Post reports.

Why Does Markwayne Mullin Live with Jason Smith?

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“Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin has reportedly shared a Washington, D.C. home with Rep. Jason Smith for three years, renewing speculation about the two men,” the Advocate reports.

“Mullin, a former professional fighter, met Smith, the Missouri Republican who chairs the House Ways and Means Committee, while leading bipartisan congressional workouts, The New York Times reported in 2014. The workouts also included former Rep. Aaron Schock, an Illinois Republican who came out as gay after leaving Congress.”

Why the Gulf Wants Trump to Hold the Line On Iran

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“Efforts to rekindle talks to end the war between the U.S. and Iran are running into resistance from major Persian Gulf oil producers that have swung against any accommodation of Tehran,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“Gulf countries generally agree that Trump shouldn’t escalate militarily against Iran. But oil kingpin Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are lobbying the Trump administration to keep up the economic pressure on Iran and not agree to concessions that would ease sanctions or the U.S. Navy blockade.”

Trump Continues Voter Data Push Despite Setbacks

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“President Donald Trump is pressing forward with an unprecedented push for his administration to obtain sensitive voter data ahead of the U.S. midterm elections, despite repeated losses in court, in a hunt for noncitizens illegally registered to vote, though there has been no evidence of widespread fraud of this kind,” Reuters reports.

It’s Too Late for Republicans to Distance Themselves

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Jonathan Tamari: “After nearly two years of clinging to the president, it’s a tough sell to tell people less than six weeks before Election Day that, hey, actually, we don’t support this war that’s been going on for seven months.”

“It’s even harder when some turn down a chance to put their words into action, as several did Thursday by again voting against a resolution to end the conflict, despite calling for it to wrap up or complaining that gas prices are too high.”

“The Iran vote might help them again avoid blowback from Trump, but it keeps at-risk senators on record supporting one of his most unpopular decisions.”

A Snapshot of Three Governor’s Races

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A new Siena Research Institute poll in Maine finds Hannah Pingree (D) leading Bobby Charles (R) in the governor’s race, 47% to 34%, with Rick Bennett (I) at 8%.

Maine Governor’s Race
Hannah Pingree (D) 47%
 
Bobby Charles (R) 34%
 
Siena Research Institute poll · likely voters
Michigan Governor’s Race
Jocelyn Benson (D) 48%
 
John James (R) 43%
 
Siena Research Institute poll · likely voters
New Hampshire Governor’s Race
Kelly Ayotte (R) 52%
 
Cinde Warmington (D) 41%
 
Siena Research Institute poll · likely voters

Cracks Emerge in GOP’s Florida Firewall

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“President Donald Trump is not making it easy for Republicans in Florida to keep their firewall,” Politico reports.

“The same forces undercutting the GOP in other states — including Trump’s war in Iran and ensuing high gas prices, Hispanic voters turned off by his immigration surges and stubborn concerns over affordability — are hitting Floridians.”

“Now, some polling has shown statewide races inside the margin of error, including for governor and U.S. Senate. Democratic congressional seats seen as flippable after mid-decade redistricting are a question mark while some Republicans have distanced themselves from an increasingly unpopular president.”

Xi Jinping Didn’t Bring a CEO Entourage

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“When China’s leader, Xi Jinping, traveled to the United States in 2015 for his first state visit, he brought a delegation of Chinese chief executives to meet their American counterparts,” the New York Times reports.

“Disputes over human rights, cyberattacks and trade were straining relations. But Washington and Beijing still shared an undeniable common interest: making money in each other’s markets.”

“A decade later, the contrast with this week’s summit between President Trump and Mr. Xi could not be more stark. No prominent Chinese chief executives attended Thursday night’s state dinner at the White House.”

U.S. Military Lays Groundwork for Action Around Cuba

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“The U.S. Army Reserve is examining whether it can provide the military’s Southern Command with police forces, medical personnel and other support units within the next four months,” CBS News reports.

“Though the message makes no reference to Cuba, the request is for continued military planning aimed at Cuba.”

Trump’s Odd Midterm Strategy

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Stephen Collinson: “The country craves economic relief. People think groceries and the roofs over their heads are too expensive. The vise tightened Thursday when mortgage rates rose above 7%.”

“With their wages disappearing more quickly, Americans are even more angry about one of the top causes — the Iran war. Even GOP voters are increasing losing confidence in the conflict amid soaring gasoline and diesel prices.”

“And citizens are increasingly fearful about advances in artificial intelligence. That’s no wonder after recent warnings from tech chiefs that their brainchild could threaten humanity.”

“Yet on this trio of issues, and many others, Trump is offering a program that is exactly opposite of what most Americans want.”

Democrats Weigh How to Handle Data Center Vote

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“Senate Democrats will soon have to decide whether to do one of their most vulnerable Republican colleagues a big political favor just weeks before the midterm elections,” Politico reports.

”Republican leaders are expected to set up a vote next week on the Ratepayer Protection Act, legislation that aims to curb energy prices associated with the data centers. It easily passed the House last week with 206 Democratic votes, but it faces a tougher path to passage across the Capitol — thanks to campaign-season politics.”

Trump’s Diesel Export Limits Would Face Huge Problems

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“The diesel export ban that President Donald Trump is mulling in a bid to bring down record-high prices would backfire in two ways — further dividing Hill Republicans while risking even pricier gasoline,” Semafor reports.

“It’s not clear that the Trump administration will impose diesel export limits, which the president said this week that he’d explore as average national prices push past $6.50 per gallon. If Trump does push ahead, his main cheerleaders will be GOP candidates in tight races this fall who are eager to market more ideas to lower costs before the midterms.”

“But most congressional Republicans want nothing to do with the idea, no matter how close they are with the administration.”

New York Times: Why a U.S. diesel export ban may not lower prices.

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.

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