“Speaker Mike Johnson told Republican holdouts on the party’s crucial budget plan in a private meeting Wednesday night that they could oust him from the speakership if he doesn’t follow through with his fiscal promises,” Politico reports.
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The Retribution Is Here
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Risky Business
Jonathan Last: “The United States economy has been the center of global finance for 80 years for one simple reason: Year in and year out, we have been the safest place to do business. The ground rules remained constant and when they changed around the margins, they did so slowly and transparently.”
“Investing money is always risky—but America had the lowest level of risk on the planet. Our government, legal system, and business community worked hard to make that happen and the rewards we reaped for it were tremendous.”
“Donald Trump destroyed 80 years of that work over the last week. America is now a risky place to do business. A place where the rules change from day to day. Where no business can trust in the sturdiness of its long-term plans or count on its revenue projections even for the next quarter.”
“This abstract problem is going to create real-world economic hardship.”
What’s Next for Trump’s Agenda?
Punchbowl News: “After months of preliminary jockeying, now comes the really hard part – drafting a bill. Johnson’s challenges in juggling concerns from the center and right of his conference over spending cuts this morning underscored just how difficult it’s going to be. Then throw in the tax portion of the package and you have an enormously complex Rubik’s Cube to solve.”
“House Republicans have set a Memorial Day goal for the reconciliation bill, so they’ll want committees to move quickly to put pencil to paper and move toward markups. But they have to bridge some very serious internal political and policy gaps.”
“Just think about this: HFC members and other conservatives touted this morning that Johnson committed to them he’ll cut $1.5 trillion in federal spending and adhere to tying the House Ways and Means Committee’s $4.5 trillion in room for tax cuts to achieving $2 trillion in spending reductions. But Republicans worried about deep Medicaid cuts said Johnson reassured them during the vote. Making both groups happy may very well be impossible.”
Politico: “That process will pit fiscal hawks against moderate Republicans as GOP leaders try to square their conflicting demands to protect safety-net programs like Medicaid while cutting trillions of dollars from that slice of the federal budget.”
Michelle Obama Addresses Public Absences
The former first lady said on a podcast that people “couldn’t even fathom that I was making a choice for myself, that they had to assume that my husband and I are divorcing,” the New York Times reports.
‘The Worst Self-Inflicted Wound Ever’
Former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said President Trump’s shifting tariff policy has increased the odds the U.S. will enter into a recession, the Wall Street Journal reports.
“Yellen said the Trump administration’s tariff policies could cost the average U.S. household $4,000 a year.”
Said Yellin: “This is the worst self-inflicted wound that I have ever seen an administration impose on a well-functioning economy.”
Trump Won’t Rule Out Extending Tariff Pause
President Trump is declining to rule out the possibility of extending the 90-day pause he placed on his “reciprocal” tariffs yesterday, CNBC reports.
China Reaches Out to Others as Trump Layers on Tariffs
“China is reaching out to other nations as the U.S. layers on more tariffs in what appears to be an attempt to form a united front to compel Washington to retreat. Days into the effort, it’s meeting only partial success with many countries unwilling to ally with the main target of President Donald Trump’s trade war,” the AP reports.
A White House official confirmed to CNBC China’s tariff rate will jump to 145%.
U.S. Market Tumbles Again
“U.S. stocks tumbled about 4 percent in early afternoon trading on Thursday as investors assessed the worsening trade war with China, and President Trump clarified that he had raised tariffs on Chinese goods by a total of 145 percent since taking office,” the New York Times reports.
“There were other alarming signs on Thursday: In the government bond market, U.S. Treasuries started to sell off again, with the yield on 10-year Treasuries climbing to 4.37 percent, the highest since February.”
The Era of Frictionless Trade Is Over
“There is now sand — a lot of it — in the gears of global commerce, and it won’t be going away in the foreseeable future,” Axios reports.
“President Trump may have backed down on some of the most extreme — and hardest to justify — trade barriers he announced a week earlier. But the tariffs that remain in place still make for a more fractured global economy, albeit with slightly different fractures.”
“Instead of waging an all-out trade war with practically all U.S. trading partners, all at once, the new policy alignment amounts to an escalated trade war with China amid ongoing skirmishes with the rest of the world.”
Trump Wants Federal Oversight of Columbia University
“The Trump administration is planning to pursue a legal arrangement that would put Columbia University into a consent decree, an extraordinary step that could significantly escalate the pressure on the school as it battles for federal funding,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“A consent decree, which can last for years, would give a federal judge responsibility for ensuring Columbia changes its practices along lines laid out by the federal government. If a consent decree is in place, Columbia would have to comply with it. If a judge determines they are out of compliance, the school could be held in contempt of court—punishable by penalties including fines.”
House Adopts Budget Blueprint for Trump’s Agenda
“Speaker Mike Johnson muscled a revised budget blueprint needed to advance President Donald Trump’s agenda through the House on Thursday, beating back a conservative rebellion that had threatened to sink the measure just a day earlier,” NBC News reports.
“The razor-thin tally was 216-214, with just two Republicans — Reps. Thomas Massie, of Kentucky, and Victoria Spartz, of Indiana — joining all Democrats in opposition. Trump had endorsed the budget plan, which the Senate adopted last weekend on a narrow 51-48 vote.”
Said Johnson: “It’s a good day in the House. I told you not to doubt us. We’re really grateful to have had the big victory on the floor just now. It was a big one, a very important one.”
China Acknowledged Role in U.S. Infrastructure Hacks
“Chinese officials acknowledged in a secret December meeting that Beijing was behind a widespread series of alarming cyberattacks on U.S. infrastructure, underscoring how hostilities between the two superpowers are continuing to escalate,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“The Chinese delegation linked years of intrusions into computer networks at U.S. ports, water utilities, airports and other targets, to increasing U.S. policy support for Taiwan.
Bonus Quote of the Day
“You have been watching the greatest economic master strategy from an American president in history.”
— Trump adviser Stephen Miller, on X.
Tariff Man Folded
Eurointelligence: “What happened is that the bond markets had become dysfunctional as investors suffered heavy losses from the crash in equity markets, and needed to liquidate positions by selling bonds. The US treasury market is the world’s single most important financial market.”
“It was not the bond market vigilantes that drove up bond yields over concerns about government policy. On the contrary, bond yields had been heading downwards in strong anticipation of a tariff-induced recession… The level of 10-year yields is not, and was never the issue. It was the functioning of the market itself. The bond market vigilantes can be more dangerous when they are sick than when they are fighting.”
E.U. Pauses New Tariffs After Trump Blinks
“The European Union will pause its retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports for 90 days, the bloc announced Thursday, a day after President Trump abruptly backed down on his punishing global levies,” the New York Times reports.
“But the accelerating trade war between China and the United States showed no signs of abating, as Mr. Trump left in place his steep tariffs aimed at Beijing.”
China and U.S. Headed for ‘Monumental’ Split
“A dizzying escalation of tariffs has unraveled a trade relationship between the United States and China forged over decades, jeopardizing the fate of two superpowers and threatening to drag down the world economy,” the New York Times reports.
“The brinkmanship displayed by the two countries has already far exceeded the battles they waged during President Trump’s first term. In 2018 and 2019, Mr. Trump raised tariffs on China over 14 months. The latest escalation has played out mostly over a matter of days, with levies that are far greater and apply to broader swath of goods.”
U.S. Stocks Set to Tumble Again
“The U.S. stock market, fresh off its third-best day in modern history, is sinking back into reality: Although President Donald Trump paused most of his ‘reciprocal’ tariffs, his other massive import taxes have already inflicted significant damage, and the economy won’t easily recover from the fallout,” CNN reports.
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