Derek Thompson: “If there’s anything worse than an economic plan that attempts to revive the 19th-century protectionist U.S. economy, it’s the fact that the people responsible for explaining and implementing it don’t seem to have any idea what they’re doing, or why.”
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Canada’s Liberals on Track to Victory
The Economist finds that Canada’s Liberal Party has an 83% chance to retain power after the upcoming elections — entirely thanks to Donald Trump’s belligerence towards the country, which has unleashed a wave of patriotism.
Ocasio-Cortez Would Crush Schumer in a Primary
A new Data for Progress poll finds Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) leading Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) in a 2028 Democratic Senate primary, 55% to 36%, with 9% undecided.
Trump’s Ego Melts the Global Economy
Susan Glasser: “Amid the chaos of eviscerated retirement savings, blown-up supply chains, and pissed-off allies, perhaps it’s a mistake to linger on just how wrong America’s business establishment continues to be about Trump. But, wow, has this been a case of near-catastrophic wishful thinking. And I think it speaks to much of what we are still not understanding about the ways in which Trump’s second term is off to a darker, more dangerous start than his first…”
“But, of course, the real mistake has little to do with global trade policy, and much to do with a failed theory of the case about Trump. There is no rational analysis that would lead one to the conclusion that a President would single-handedly decide to blow up a century’s worth of globalization on a chilly Wednesday afternoon in April.”
Jeff Stein: “What’s striking to me is not just that Wall Street so badly underestimated downside risk—it’s that they piled all-in on post-election euphoria that assumed, contrary to all reporting, the tariffs wouldn’t happen.”
‘The Biggest Policy Mistake in 95 Years’
Jeremy Siegel, professor at University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School, told CNBC that President Trump’s sweeping tariffs could be worse for the U.S. than the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930.
Said Siegel: “I think this is the biggest policy mistake in 95 years. I don’t know why Trump didn’t learn the lesson of the Smoot–Hawley Tariff Act, because I know the Fed learned the lesson of its mistakes in 1930, ’31 and ’32. That’s one reason why the great financial crisis did not turn into a Great Depression. We flooded the banks with liquidity, which we did not do 95 years ago.”
He added: “This is a self-inflicted wound. It’s an unforced error – did not have to happen.”
House GOP Bashes Senate’s Trump Agenda Blueprint
“The Senate GOP budget plan designed to usher President Trump’s sweeping domestic priorities into law is getting an ice-cold reception from Republicans in the House, where conservatives are balking at the low levels of mandated spending cuts and the heightened deficits that could result,” The Hill reports.
China Retaliates
“China lashed back at President Trump’s tariffs, applying 34% levies on all imported goods from the U.S. Beijing said the levies would come into effect next Thursday, the day after a big part of Trump’s promised tariffs go live,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
New York Times: “Separately, China’s Ministry of Commerce said it was adding 11 American companies to its list of ‘unreliable entities,’ essentially barring them from doing business in China or with Chinese companies…”
“The commerce ministry also announced it was beginning two trade investigations into American exports of medical imaging equipment — one of the few manufacturing categories in which the United States remains internationally competitive.”
Trump’s Approval Keeps Falling
President Trump’s approval rating dropped to 43% — its lowest level since his return to office, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll.
Extra Bonus Quote of the Day
“I think there are members of the Republican caucus who are growing increasingly uncomfortable with what’s going on.”
— Sen. Angus King (I-ME), quoted by the Washington Post.
Economists Say Trump’s Math Makes No Sense
“Economists say the crude formula the White House used to calculate what it’s calling ‘reciprocal tariffs’ is too simplistic to achieve its goal of wiping out U.S. trade deficits — and, for that matter, they say that goal doesn’t make sense, either,” the Washington Post reports.
Trump Fires 6 After Meeting With Laura Loomer
“President Trump fired six National Security Council officials after an extraordinary meeting in the Oval Office with the far-right activist Laura Loomer, who laid out a list of people she believed were disloyal to the president,” the New York Times reports.
“The decision came after Ms. Loomer vilified the staff members by name during a meeting on Wednesday, when she walked into the White House with a sheaf of papers attacking the character and loyalty of numerous NSC officials.”
“Michael Waltz, the national security adviser, joined later in the meeting and briefly defended some of his staff, though it was clear he had little if any power to protect their jobs.”
Obama Speaks Out Against Trump’s Actions
Former President Barack Obama hammered President Trump’s moves against law firms and universities during remarks at Hamilton College, CNN reports.
Said Obama: “It’s unimaginable that the same parties that are silent now would have tolerated behavior like that from me or a whole bunch of my predecessors.”
He added: “Let me just close this portion of my remarks by saying – it is up to all of us to fix this. It’s not going to be – its not going to be because somebody comes to save you. The most important office in this democracy is the citizen.”
Will Trump Talk to Putin?
A new phone call between President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin could happen “potentially as soon as today,” Politico reports.
“One plugged-in official said they believe a new call may happen either directly before or soon after the weekend.”
But NBC News reports that Trump’s inner circle says no call has been scheduled, and that Trump aides are advising the president not to hold a call until Putin agrees to a ceasefire in Ukraine.
JPMorgan Raises Recession Risk to 60%
“A global recession is more likely to happen than not this year, thanks to Wednesday’s tariff broadside from the U.S.,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“That’s the opinion of JPMorgan analysts who raised their forecast to 60% Thursday. That’s up from 40% before President Trump’s Wednesday afternoon announcements sent markets tumbling.”
Kirkland & Ellis in Talks With White House
“Kirkland & Ellis, the largest U.S. law firm by revenue, is in talks with the White House to avoid an executive order similar to those levied against several of its rivals,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
Bonus Quote of the Day
“Here’s the main thing you’ve got to understand. Republicans are independently minded. Democrats are monolithic sheep that follow the Fuhrer Schumer’s orders.”
— Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-OH), quoted by Reuters.
Trade War
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Trump Backs Proxy Voting in the House
“President Trump threw his support behind a measure that would allow members of the House of Representatives to vote remotely after the birth of a child, a bipartisan rule change that Speaker Mike Johnson tried and failed to kill earlier this week, resulting in the House being paralyzed and members abruptly being sent home for the week,” the New York Times reports.
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