Rachel Bitecofer: “Party-loyalty voting in 2018 was typical, with 94 percent of all House votes cast by Republicans going to Republican candidates and 95 percent of Democrats voting for Democratic candidates, following the pattern of the past two decades. Senate party loyalty is only a little weaker — averaging 92 percent in 2018 and displaying little variation from the cycles before Trump.”

“The real change was who showed up to the polls — more women, young people (who increasingly live in suburbs), Latinos, Asian Americans and African Americans — not loyal voters who flipped. That meant electorates favorable for Republicans in 2014 became electorates favorable for Democrats in 2018. The real “swing” is the decision to vote at all, a choice driven largely by the backlash to Trump.”

A new Yahoo News/YouGov poll suggests that Bernie Sanders could be a riskier nominee than his supporters are willing to admit. In a national trial heat with President Trump, Sanders led 48% to 42% among registered voters. Yet when the playing field was narrowed to the 10 states that were closest in the 2016 presidential election and that will likely decide 2020 — Michigan, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida, Minnesota, Nevada, Maine, North Carolina and Arizona — Sanders’s lead over Trump was slashed in half (48% to 45%). That 3-point gap was within the margin of error.

In contrast, Joe Biden led Trump by 9 points nationally (50% to 41%) and by 7 points (50% to 43%) in the battleground states.

Both Elizabeth Warren (47% to 45%) and Pete Buttigieg (46% to 44%) performed about as well as Sanders in the battleground states. The weakest performer was Michael Bloomberg (43% to 43%).

“The Trump campaign has shelled out more than $2 million in two years to a law firm known for suing media companies, a signal President Trump’s reelection strategy will be about going to war with the media as well as taking on his eventual Democratic rival,” CNN reports.

“Decency and honor. The fact that I’m not screaming like Bernie and waving my arms like Elizabeth is not a lack of fire.”

— Joe Biden, quoted by Politico, when asked by a voter, “What is your fire?”

Former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe (D) has told associates that he may endorse Joe Biden on Sunday if the former vice president turns in a strong first-place finish in Saturday’s South Carolina primary, the Washington Post reports.

“A political advocacy group founded by Bernie Sanders entered into a nondisclosure agreement with an African American political consultant that bars her from discussing a lawsuit alleging racial discrimination at the organization and the Vermont senator’s 2016 presidential campaign,” the AP reports.

Jonathan Chait: “The more it looks like no one will win a majority, the more the also-rans have an incentive to stay in and win enough delegates to hope to have some clout at the convention. Take, for example, Amy Klobuchar. After disappointing in Nevada, Klobuchar no longer appears to have any realistic chance at winning the nomination. She’s polling in single digits nationally and in South Carolina; her plausible path involved Biden’s collapse, which was certainly possible but hasn’t happened. Still, Silver’s model projects her to win about 65 delegates if she sticks around. That’s not much, but if her delegates would vote for the candidate of her choice in a contested convention, it might be worth the costs of staying in.”

“The same is probably true at this point for Elizabeth Warren and Pete Buttigieg, although at least they are close enough to second place in the South Carolina polls that they might hope to surprise there and get a bounce in the Super Tuesday contests. As for Michael Bloomberg, who isn’t on the ballot on Saturday but will finally compete on Tuesday, it’s been true from the start and continues to be true that the most likely effect of his campaign is to split the mainstream liberal vote and make Sanders the nominee.”