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Trump’s Inconsistent Messages on China Heighten Risks

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Associated Press: “The communications on China from Trump and his administration since late last week — erratic, sometimes contradictory — are complicating their high-stakes talks with Beijing and elevating the risks to the fragile global economy.”

“The messaging has been confusing not just for Chinese officials as they formulate a response to whatever stance the administration is taking. It’s also a problem for American businesses.”

“The shifting positions and threats could eventually weaken the U.S. and world economies by leaving businesses paralyzed by uncertainty over whether and where to situate factories, buy supplies and sell products.”

Trump Claimed First Lady Met North Korea’s Leader

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President Trump claimed that first lady Melania Trump has “gotten to know” North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, the Washington Post reports.

Said Trump: “I also say that, by the way, with respect to North Korea, Kim Jong Un — who I’ve gotten to know extremely well; the first lady had gotten to know Kim Jong Un, and I think she’d agree with me — he is a man with a country that has tremendous potential.”

White House press secretary Stephanie Grisham issued a statement soon after noting that the first lady has never met Kim.

Macron Blasts Brazil’s President Over Remarks

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French President Emanuel Macron “vehemently denounced Jair Bolsonaro after the Brazilian president apparently mocked the appearance of France’s first lady on Facebook,” The Hill reports.

“Macron delivered the remarks just days after a supporter of Bolsonaro posted a meme on the president’s Facebook page comparing the appearance of Macron’s wife, Brigitte Macron, unfavorably to that of Bolsonaro’s wife, Michelle Bolsonaro, and suggesting Macron was jealous.”


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A Three-Way Race for the Democratic Nomination

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A new Monmouth poll finds a virtual three-way tie in the Democratic presidential race with Elizabeth Warren at 20%, Bernie Sanders at 20% and Joe Biden at 19%.

Compared to Monmouth’s June poll, these results represent an increase in support for both Sanders (up from 14%) and Warren (up from 15%), and a significant drop for Biden (down from 32%).

The frontrunners are followed by Kamala Harris at 8%, Cory Booker at 4%, Pete Buttigieg at 4%, Andrew Yang at 3%, Julián Castro at 2%, Beto O’Rourke at 2% and Marianne Williamson at 2%.

Said pollster Patrick Murray: “The main takeaway from this poll is that the Democratic race has become volatile. Liberal voters are starting to cast about for a candidate they can identify with. Moderate voters, who have been paying less attention, seem to be expressing doubts about Biden.”

Meeting Donald Trump In Jeffrey Epstein’s Office

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From a New York Times story about two sisters who tried to expose convicted pedophile Jeffrey Epstein:

“There, at the age of 25, she was introduced to Mr. Epstein’s odd life, with girls and young women coming through for what she recalled Ms. Maxwell describing as modeling auditions for the lingerie retailer Victoria’s Secret. The house at times bustled in anticipation of potential visits from Bill Clinton, although she never actually saw him there.”

“She said she met Donald Trump one day in Mr. Epstein’s office, recalling Mr. Trump eyeing her before Mr. Epstein informed him that ‘she’s not for you.’ Ms. Farmer’s mother, Janice Swain, recalled her daughter detailing the interaction with Mr. Trump around the time it occurred.”

Bonus Quote of the Day

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“I’m an environmentalist. A lot of people don’t understand that. I think I know more about the environment than most people.”

— President Trump, quoted by The Hill, after skipping a G7 summit meeting focused on climate, oceans and biodiversity.

Cotton Defends Idea of Buying Greenland

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Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR), writing in the New York Times:

“After news leaked last week that President Trump had expressed interest in acquiring Greenland from Denmark, his critics predictably derided him as crazy. But once again, the president is crazy like a fox. The acquisition of Greenland would secure vital strategic interests for the United States, economically benefit both us and Greenlanders, and would be in keeping with American — and Danish — diplomatic traditions.”

“Strategically positioned in the Arctic Circle, Greenland has long attracted the attention of American policymakers. As far back as 1867, Secretary of State William Seward explored the acquisition of Greenland around the time that he negotiated the purchase of Alaska from the Russians. I myself raised the prospect of acquiring Greenland with the Danish ambassador just last year.”

The Next Recession Will Destroy Millennials

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Annie Lowrey: “Recessions are never good for anyone. A sputtering economy means miserable financial, emotional, and physical-health consequences for everyone from infants to retirees. But the next one—if it happens, when it starts happening—stands to hit this much-maligned generation particularly hard. For adults between the ages of 22 and 38, after all, the last recession never really ended.”

“Millennials got bodied in the downturn, have struggled in the recovery, and are now left more vulnerable than other, older age cohorts. As they pitch toward middle age, they are failing to make it to the middle class, and are likely to be the first generation in modern economic history to end up worse off than their parents. The next downturn might make sure of it, stalling their careers and sucking away their wages right as the Millennials enter their prime earning years.”

What Warren Is Quietly Telling Democratic Insiders

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The New York Times has an interesting piece on how Sen. Elizabeth Warren is telling Democratic insiders she’s not a threat.

Said Warren at a recent fundraiser: “Last year, I was running for re-election, but I didn’t hold back. In fact, I raised or gave more than $11 million helping get Democrats elected up and down the ballot around the country” and “sent contributions to all 50 state parties, the national committees and the redistricting fight.”

“Her point was easy to grasp: While her liberal agenda may be further left than some in the Democratic establishment would prefer, she is a team player who is seeking to lead the party — not stage a hostile takeover of it.”

“As Ms. Warren steadily rises in the polls she is working diligently to protect her left flank… Yet publicly, and even more in private, she is signaling to party leaders that, far from wanting to stage a ‘political revolution’ in the fashion of Mr. Sanders, she wants to revive the beleaguered Democratic National Committee and help recapture the Senate while retaining the House in 2020.”

History Suggests the 2020 Election Won’t Be Close

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Dan McLaughlin: “Will Donald Trump’s reelection campaign be a nail-biter? No Republican president has ever been reelected with less than 50 percent of the vote. Historically, when a president runs for reelection, it usually isn’t close. Of the 31 times in U.S. history that a sitting president ran for reelection, 19 of those were blowouts: 15 easy wins, 4 lopsided losses. Among the other 12, nearly half offered very little real suspense at the end.”

Appeals Court Opens Door to Electoral College Chaos

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Noah Feldman: “A federal appeals court has held that members of the Electoral College have a constitutional right to vote for a different presidential candidate than the one they swore to support — and whom the voting public in their states actually chose.”

“It’s a terrible holding.”

“Inventing a right to be a faithless elector invites chaos, elevates formalism over democracy, and shows how indefensible originalism is when applied to evolving norms of democracy.”

“The issue will probably have to go to the U.S. Supreme Court. We can only hope the justices apply common sense and take into account that the point of modern presidential elections is to elect the people’s preferred candidate.”

About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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