Business Insider: “The New York Federal Reserve’s probability model, which predicts the probability of a US recession in the next 12 months, delivered a reading of 32.9% for June.”
“That’s could mean tough times ahead, considering the measure has breached the 30% threshold before every recession since 1960. It sat at a precarious 28% in May.”
Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) declined to answer a reporter’s question about an assertion by Attorney General William Barr, saying he had lied to Congress and that she would no longer address “anything more that he has to say,” the Washington Post reports.
Said Pelosi: “I don’t even want to address him. He has lied to Congress as the attorney general of the United States. He’s lied under oath. I’m not speaking to anything more that he has to say.”
The New York Times has a great review of American Carnage: On the Front Lines of the Republican Civil War and the Rise of President Trump by Tim Alberta, noting it “isn’t just another drop in the deluge of Trump books; in fact, it isn’t really a Trump book at all.”
“Instead it’s a fascinating look at a Republican Party that initially scoffed at the incursion of a philandering reality-TV star with zero political experience and now readily accommodates him.”
Former Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (D), who served as Health and Human Services secretary in the Obama administration, confirmed to Politico that she will not be jumping into the race for the Senate seat soon to be vacated by retiring Sen. Pat Roberts (R-KS).
“A federal appeals court seemed likely on Tuesday to strike down what remains of the Affordable Care Act’s individual mandate, but sent more mixed signals about its willingness to throw out the rest of the health care law along with it,” Axios reports.
“If a ruling striking down ACA comes to pass — like the one a lower court handed down last year — it would throw some 20 million people off their coverage, create ripple effects through almost every facet of the health care system and ignite an enormous political firestorm.”
Dan Bishop (R), who is running in the do-over election in North Carolina’s 9th congressional district, likened his efforts to undermine LGBTQ rights via religious exemptions to the work of Oskar Schindler, a German industrialist who saved Jews during the Holocaust, the HuffPost reports.
“I like Tom personally, but I do have to say as somebody who in this campaign has received received 2 million contributions, averaging $19 a person, I’m a bit tired of seeing billionaires trying to buy political power.”
— Sen. Bernie Sanders, quoted by The Hill, on the entry of Tom Steyer into the Democratic presidential race.
“Less than two hours after beginning a special session called in response to a mass shooting, Virginia lawmakers abruptly adjourned Tuesday without taking any action and postponed any movement on gun control until after the November election,” the AP reports.
“Gov. Ralph Northam (D) called the Republican-led Legislature to the Capitol to address gun violence in the wake of the May 31 attack that killed a dozen people in Virginia Beach. The meeting got off to a chaotic start, with the Republican Senate majority leader averting a mutiny in the GOP caucus by publicly disavowing a gun-control bill he proposed only a day earlier.”
“I find myself once again in the same position as President Obama. We both oppose reparations and we both are the descendants of slave owners.”
— Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), quoted by NBC News, when asked if he knew that two of his great-great-grandfathers were slave owners.
“Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) introduced a bill Tuesday that would prevent any federal funding for the 2026 World Cup until the U.S. Soccer Federation agrees to provide equal pay to the U.S. women’s and men’s national teams,” the HuffPost reports.
“The bill would cut off ‘any and all’ federal money that would otherwise be spent when the United States hosts the men’s World Cup in 2026.”
A new Public Policy Polling survey finds soccer star Megan Rapinoe would beat President Trump in a general election match up, 42% to 41%.
Before you scoff at the poll, an important takeaway: “Trump’s 41% standing is familiar territory. On PPP’s last public national poll we tested 8 of the actual Democratic candidates against Trump, and his standing was in the 40-42% range against all of them. His performance against Rapinoe fits with that general trend.”
CBS News: “Publishers of religious books are warning that President Trump’s latest proposed tariffs on Chinese imports could result in a Bible shortage in the U.S.”
“Tens of millions of bibles are printed in China each year, with some estimates as high as 150 million. Publishers large and small testified against the proposed tariff in hearings last month, saying it would make the Bible more expensive for consumers and Christian organizations that give away Bibles as part of their ministry.”
President Trump’s rant against Fox News over the weekend was sparked by a live report from a sports bar in France, where patrons spontaneously erupted in a “Fuck Trump” chant which was carried live on the air, the AP reports.
“The Little Engine That Could is one of my favorites. It’s about courage, strength, and getting the job done.”
— Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) in an interview with Shondaland, on what book, other than the bible, has influenced her the most.
Ohio Republicans inserted an item in the budget bill that would move the state’s presidential primary from March 10 to March 17, the Dayton Daily News reports.
But Democrats are worried about the impact on voter turnout if the primary is held on St. Patrick’s Day.
Washington Post: “As one of two dozen Democrats vying for the party nomination, Hickenlooper’s struggle to make a dent is emblematic of how difficult it is for a candidate — even a well-regarded former governor of a pivotal state — to break through in a historically large field in which being a mild-mannered 67-year-old white man hasn’t been the best selling point.”
“In 2016, the buzz around Hickenlooper was loud enough that Hillary Clinton vetted him to be her running mate. But three years later, Hickenlooper often finds himself talking to voters who have no idea who he is.”
Washington Post: “The majority of Democratic hopefuls have yet to experience a moment like the surge of interest in Mayor Pete or Beto or Elizabeth Warren, let alone the preexisting support afforded the two candidates approaching their 80th birthdays. But Gillibrand’s lack of anointing seems conspicuous. After all, on paper, she’s set herself up to succeed.”
“Maybe it’s that her recalibration on guns and immigration is often framed as pandering. Maybe it’s because her role in Al Franken’s Senate resignation has been cast as inconvenient for Democrats and convenient for her. Maybe it’s sexism.”
“Or maybe it’s all these things, with one other factor thrown in: At a time when our national cortisol level is tied to the president’s Twitter feed, and when candidates are live-streaming and clapping back and eating salads with hair equipment, it has become unforgivable to be boring… Gillibrand’s brand — motherly, responsible, pragmatic, experienced — is going to be a tough sell if what we really want, at some level, is for our politicians to entertain us.”
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.