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Trump’s High Approval Ratings May Be Misleading

February 20, 2020 at 11:31 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

The Economist: “Even after correcting for demographic biases, pollsters’ data can still be unrepresentative. They may have the right shares of Latino voters and boomers, but nevertheless have too many Republicans or Democrats. This concern is pronounced when an event causes especially good, or bad, news for a political party. At such times surveys can suddenly be swamped with partisans who are eager to voice their love, or hate, for the president.”

“In the wake of Mr Trump’s acquittal in the Senate, pollsters suspect that such a bias could be affecting polls. Courtney Kennedy, the director for survey research at the Pew Research Center, says that there is a ‘strong possibility’ that the recent uptick in Mr Trump’s ratings has a wave of optimistic Republicans as its source. She says that outlets can control this problem by adjusting their data to have the correct shares of Democratic- and Republican-leaning voters, but the idea is relatively new and few pollsters have data good enough to perform such corrections.”

“The Economist’s analysis of polls taken during Mr Trump’s impeachment proceedings affirms Ms Kennedy’s suspicion. In polls that weight their data to represent America’s partisan balance or the results of the 2016 election, the share of adults who approve of Mr Trump’s job as president has risen by half a percentage point since impeachment proceedings began in earnest last October. But in polls that do not, Mr Trump’s ratings have increased by over three percentage points.”

Bernie’s Rise Sparks Comparisons to 2016 GOP Race

February 20, 2020 at 11:00 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The Democratic primary is following a similar trajectory to what Republicans experienced four years ago, when a long-shot candidate with a devoted base gained momentum while his party’s establishment politicians squabbled over who was best suited to take him on,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

Said former Jeb Bush aide Matt Gorman: “Close your eyes: There’s a septuagenarian presidential candidate with a pretty indestructible level of support who is leading in several early states—who am I talking about? Much like Trump, the press and Beltway audiences don’t take seriously his ability to win the nomination and keep waiting breathlessly for that inevitable collapse, and neither is happening any time soon.”

Rohrabacher Says He Offered Assange a Trump Pardon

February 20, 2020 at 10:49 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Former Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R-CA) confirmed to Yahoo News that “during a three-hour meeting at the Ecuadorian Embassy in August 2017, he told Julian Assange he would get President Trump to give him a pardon if he turned over information proving the Russians had not been the source of internal Democratic National Committee emails published by WikiLeaks.”

“Rohrabacher said that not only did talk of a Trump pardon take place during his meeting, but he also followed up by calling then White House chief of staff John Kelly to discuss the proposal. He did not, however, ever speak to Trump about it.”

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Bloomberg’s Plan Backfires

February 20, 2020 at 10:26 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

Mike Bloomberg got into the presidential race because he feared there was no Democratic candidate strong enough to stop Bernie Sanders from winning the nomination.

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What 11 Criminals Granted Clemency Had in Common

February 20, 2020 at 9:47 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

New York Times: “All 11 recipients had an inside connection or were promoted on Fox News. Some were vocal supporters of Mr. Trump, donated to his campaign or in one case had a son who weekended in the Hamptons with the president’s eldest son. Even three obscure women serving time on drug or fraud charges got on Mr. Trump’s radar screen through a personal connection.”

“While 14,000 clemency petitions sit unaddressed at the Justice Department’s Office of the Pardon Attorney, Mr. Trump eagerly granted relief to a former football team owner who hosted a pre-inauguration party, a onetime contestant on “Celebrity Apprentice” and an infamous investor championed both by Rudolph W. Giuliani, the president’s personal lawyer, and by the billionaire who hosted a $10 million fund-raiser for Mr. Trump just last weekend.”

Top National Security Official Reassigned

February 20, 2020 at 9:44 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Deputy national security adviser Victoria Coates will be reassigned to become a senior adviser to Energy Secretary Dan Brouillette,” Axios reports.

“Coates has battled rumors that she is ‘Anonymous,’ the still-unknown Trump administration official that penned a New York Times op-ed and book critical of President Trump, though a senior White House administration official said that the administration ‘rejects’ those claims.”

The SMOD Debate

February 20, 2020 at 9:31 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Charlie Sykes: “Say what you will, but the Sweet Meteor of Death finally arrived last night. But, apparently, it was aimed at Mike Bloomberg.”

“Sure, he still has $60 billion to fix the mess, but five minutes into the debate, Bloomberg had been transformed from possible centrist savior to an extra in the Night of the Living Dead.”

“It was that kind of night. a six way clusterfuck with moderates attacking moderates, geriatrics talking about their stents, Pete on Amy, Amy on Pete, and Liz Warren lashing out at just everyone. That was an odd choice for Warren, who needs to win the progressive lane against Bernie Sanders, but seemed to devote most of her considerable energy to attacking the late Mayor Bloomberg, Amy Klobuchar, and Pete Buttigieg in no particular order.”

“At a moment when Democrats needed to focus on derailing the prospect of a Trump-Sanders death march they spent the night knifing one another with various degrees of relish. It was a murder-suicide worthy of an Agatha Christie novel. The one where everyone ends up dead.”

Campaigns Announce Fundraising from Last Night

February 20, 2020 at 9:01 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s presidential campaign announced they raised $2.8 million after last night’s debate.

Sen. Bernie Sanders’s campaign announced he raised $2.7 million.

Inside Roger Stone’s Relationship with Trump

February 20, 2020 at 8:45 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Politico: “Stone and Trump have a history unlike anyone else around the president. They’ve known each other since Ronald Reagan’s 1980 White House campaign and maintained a rapport that includes Stone counseling Trump during four potential presidential runs and Trump hiring Stone as a lobbyist to represent his gambling, airline and hotel businesses. In his most recent book, Stone boasted that he knew about Trump’s 2016 plans more than two years before the formal campaign announcement.”

Two Senate Races Shift

February 20, 2020 at 8:42 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball has two Senate race rating changes this week: Colorado moves from Toss-up to Leans Democratic, while Alabama moves from Leans Republican to Likely Republican.

Republicans remain favored to hold the majority.

Trump Approval Steady at 49%

February 20, 2020 at 8:35 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

President Trump’s job approval remains elevated at 49% in the latest Gallup poll, the same as in the previous poll and up five points from an early January poll conducted before Trump was acquitted by the Senate in his impeachment trial.

Trump Hints at Roger Stone Pardon

February 20, 2020 at 8:30 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

President Trump posted a clip of Tucker Carlson discussing the Roger Stone case:

Said Carlson: “Like the Russia collusion fantasy itself, Stone’s prosecution was wholly poitical. It was a shocking insult to the American tradition of equal justice. The whole thing is enough to shake your faith in our justice system. President Trump could end this travesty in an instant with a pardon, and there are indications tonight that he will do that.”

Stone is scheduled to be sentenced later this morning.

Bloomberg Nabs Three New Congressional Endorsements

February 20, 2020 at 8:05 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Mike Bloomberg picked up three new congressional endorsements on the heels of his rocky debate performance, underscoring his staying power in the Democratic primary race despite an onslaught of attacks from opponents,” the AP reports.

“Democratic Reps. Josh Gottheimer of New Jersey, Nita Lowey of New York and Pete Aguilar of California all endorsed Bloomberg Thursday, bringing his total number of congressional endorsements to 15, behind only Joe Biden, who has more than three times that amount.”

Bonus Quote of the Day

February 20, 2020 at 7:14 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“None of them accuse me of doing anything other than maybe they didn’t like a joke I told. And let me just — there’s agreements between two parties that wanted to keep it quiet. And that’s up to them. They signed those agreements and we’ll live with it.”

— Mike Bloomberg, refusing to answer Elizabeth Warren’s question on how many non-disclosure agreements he signed with women at his company.

Sanders Skates By as Rivals Fight

February 20, 2020 at 7:05 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

The Fix: “You wouldn’t have thought from watching the debate that Sanders was the one threatening to open up a potentially insurmountable delegate lead in the weeks ahead. Instead, the candidates focused mostly on Bloomberg and arguably landed tougher attacks on each other than on Sanders.”

“Sanders did have to defend himself on some sticky subjects, including his refusal to provide more medical disclosure after a heart attack he suffered last year. He was also forced to respond to the Culinary Workers Union’s criticism of him for wanting to supplant their private health insurance with Medicare-for-all. But there was pretty much nothing to suggest Sanders’s momentum in this race would change.”

New York Times: “Some rivals hit him… But there was no singular moment that would seem to upend his current positive trajectory, both in Nevada and nationally. And even if Mr. Sanders did not deliver his most forceful performance, that might be enough.”

Bloomberg’s Rough Debut

February 20, 2020 at 6:45 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Mike Allen: “The debate underscored the Bloomberg’s campaign biggest fear: It’s hard to hide to his prickly demeanor. Bloomberg had all the time, practice and forewarning money could buy — and still struggled mightily on the public stage.”

“But it’d be foolish to assume blanket ads can’t undo the damage.”

Said Elizabeth Warren after the debate: “I have no doubt that he is about to drop, tonight, another hundred million dollars on his campaign … in order to try to erase America’s memory of what happened on that debate stage.”

Politico: “He was rusty. He was testy. He was out of touch. And, for a candidate often shielded by the scripted one-liners of killer campaign advisers, he was on his own — unable to hide his peevish demeanor and unable to portray himself, as his campaign has tried to do, as the clear choice to stop Bernie Sanders and beat Donald Trump.”

Warren Goes for Broke

February 20, 2020 at 6:43 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Axios: “The biggest beneficiary of Bloomberg’s presence was Warren, who found the foil she desperately needed after disappointing finishes in Iowa and New Hampshire. She faced questions after the New Hampshire debate about why she didn’t get more speaking time, and it was clear she wasn’t going to let that happen again.”

“With little to lose, Warren targeted nearly every candidate on health care, calling Buttigieg’s plan ‘a slogan that was thought out by his consultants,’ Klobuchar’s plan ‘a Post-it Note — insert plan here,’ and jabbing Sanders for ‘relentlessly attacking everyone’ who questions his version of Medicare for All.”

“A Warren aide tweeted toward the end of the debate that the campaign raised $425,000 in 30 minutes. If this debate doesn’t boost her polling numbers, it’s unlikely any debate will.”

New York Times: “It was the kind of aggressive performance that allies and even some of her campaign advisers had been hoping for, even if it marked a sharp shift from her recent strategy of appearing as an above-the-fray candidate who could unite Democrats.”

Loathing In Las Vegas

February 20, 2020 at 6:41 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Politico: “Amy Klobuchar made sure there would be no post-debate handshake with Pete Buttigieg. After a series of cutting exchanges during Wednesday’s presidential debate, Klobuchar cut around Buttigieg without a glance in his direction as they stepped away from their neighboring podiums following Wednesday’s Democratic showdown.”

“The hostility building between the two Midwestern Democrats burst dramatically into the open in Nevada, as they clashed repeatedly on the debate stage and tried to slash the momentum out of each other’s campaigns. Klobuchar and Buttigieg have fought before over their experience and their political records in past debates — but the feud took a deeply personal turn.”

New York Times: “Forgive us for wondering on Wednesday night if Ms. Klobuchar and Mr. Buttigieg wanted to physically harm each other onstage at times.”

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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