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Trump’s State of the Union Comes at Time of Political Peril

February 3, 2019 at 11:50 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Facing clear political peril, President Trump will deliver his second State of the Union address at a moment when his bully pulpit is uncertain and his negotiating skills in question after a monthlong government shutdown that exposed fractures in his party and sent his poll numbers tumbling,” the AP reports.

“Trump hopes to use his Tuesday speech to reset his agenda and begin to gear up for his 2020 re-election campaign. But even as the president promises a theme of unity, his performance is likely to draw cheers from one side of the deeply divided Congress and stony silence from the other.”

Trump Blames Gillespie for Not Finding Photo

February 3, 2019 at 8:13 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

President Trump accused Ed Gillespie (R) of political “malpractice” and “dereliction of duty” for not uncovering the racist yearbook photo of Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam (D) during their gubernatorial campaign in 2017.

Said Trump: “If they find that terrible picture before the election, he wins by 20 points!”

White House Says Trump’s Tan Is Just ‘Good Genes’

February 3, 2019 at 8:04 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

New York Times: “The official line from the White House, as with other matters surrounding the president’s physical health and appearance, is that Mr. Trump’s glow is the result of ‘good genes.’ And, O.K., a little powder — a translucent one, not a bronzer — which the president applies himself before television appearances, the official said.”

“But mysteries abound. One persistent question: Does Mr. Trump use a tanning bed, as a talkative makeup artist said in 2016 and Omarosa Manigault Newman, a former aide, claimed in a tell-all book?”

“Mr. Trump’s former boarding school classmates have described him as a fan of ultraviolet rays, someone who would pop a tanning bulb into a light socket to go ‘to the beach.’ … But according to three people who have spent time in the White House residence, no such bed or spray-tan booth exists in a hidden nook of the residence, a cranny of the East Wing or a closet on Air Force One. Two senior White House officials insisted that no such apparatus exists.”

Trump Faces Mounting Threats from All Sides

February 3, 2019 at 8:02 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Washington Post: “Trump dealt himself a political defeat with the 35-day government shutdown. He has secured no funding to construct a border wall and is preparing to declare a national emergency to fulfill his campaign promise. He is newly at odds with the nation’s intelligence chiefs and some senators in his own party. The Russia investigation, which has ensnared several of the president’s allies, appears to be nearing its conclusion. New congressional oversight investigations will start soon. And the race to defeat him at the ballot box has kicked off in earnest.”

“The challenges mount at a moment when Trump is as unencumbered and isolated as ever. Inside the White House, aides describe a chaotic, freewheeling atmosphere reminiscent of the early weeks of Trump’s presidency.”

“Power has consolidated around presidential son-in-law Jared Kushner, a senior adviser who is functioning as a de facto White House chief of staff. With counterweights like ousted chief of staff John F. Kelly now gone, some advisers say the West Wing has the feel of the 26th floor of Trump Tower, where an unrestrained Trump had absolute control over his family business and was free to follow his impulses.”

Trump Appoints Ronny Jackson Chief Medical Adviser

February 2, 2019 at 9:15 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

President Trump on Saturday named Rear Adm. Ronny Jackson as chief medical adviser and assistant to the president, Politico reports.

He was also nominated on Friday for a promotion to a two-star admiral in the Navy.

The dual announcements came ahead of Trump’s annual physical, which is scheduled for Friday, Feb. 8, at Walter Reed.

Quote of the Day

February 2, 2019 at 7:16 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“I am who I am. I’m good with it. You might need to figure it out, but I’m fine with it.”

— Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA), telling the Washington Post that she doesn’t define herself by race or ethnicity, just as “an American.”

Northam Joins Annals of Bizarre Press Conferences

February 2, 2019 at 5:41 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Politico: “It was no easy feat. But on Saturday, Ralph Northam staked a claim in the annals of most surreal political press conferences, presiding over a 40-minute extravaganza that would do Mark Sanford and Jim McGreevey proud. Or something like that.”

“In a bid to salvage his job, the Democratic governor of Virginia denied he was one of the men dressed up as a Klansman and in blackface in a picture on his medical school yearbook page — after admitting the night before he was, in fact, in the photo.”

“But that was just the start.“

Aaron Blake: “Northam may not know it yet, but in all likelihood he is done.”

Warren Gears Up for Campaign Kickoff

February 2, 2019 at 5:06 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) “is preparing a robust, official launch to her presidential campaign in her home state of Massachusetts next week, followed by a six-state, cross country tour that will take her to four early presidential states, key southern states and to delegate-rich California, where an early primary is becoming an increasingly critical calculation to 2020 Democratic aspirants,” Politico reports.

“Warren’s live launch announcement will take place in Lawrence, Massachusetts from the steps of Everett Mills, the site of the 1912 ‘Bread and Roses Strike’ where thousands of women walked off their factory jobs protesting working conditions and low wages.”

The Odds Are Against Trump In 2020

February 2, 2019 at 3:39 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

David Axelrod tells the New Yorker that it will be very hard for President Trump to win re-election.

Said Axelrod: “He drew an inside straight in the last election and squeaked through in the upper Midwest, which showed real resistance to him in the midterm elections. If he were to lose Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, all of which had strong Democratic showings in 2018, he would lose the Presidency, and there’s not one state I can think of that Trump could add.”

He added: “That said, he should not be underestimated. He has a kind of feral genius for manipulating the media environment. We know there’s nothing that he wouldn’t do to win, so he will be working day and night to destroy whoever the nominee is, and he’s got a great talent for that. Trump did speak to a fundamental sense of jaundice out there about Washington politics as usual. And, to the degree that the nominee can be depicted as a representation of that, his chances improve. All that said, if you were betting today, you would not bet on Donald Trump.”

Northam Insists He Was Not In Racist Photo

February 2, 2019 at 3:12 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam (D) “said he is neither of the people in the racist photo that surfaced Friday from a 1984 yearbook from Eastern Virginia Medical School,” the Richmond Times Dispatch reports.

“Northam said he saw the photo, now more than 30 years old, for the first time Friday. After admitting it was him in the photo and apologizing Friday night, Northam said after reflection with his family and talking to former classmates, he now says it was not him in the photo.”

Northam won’t resign, according to the Washington Post, but said “if he felt he wasn’t able to function efficiently as governor, he would re-visit the matter.”

New York Times: “But he may have made his effort to remain in office more difficult by revealing that he had darkened his face with shoe polish in the 1980s at a Michael Jackson-inspired dance party in Texas when he was a young Army officer.”

Three Governor’s Races This Year

February 2, 2019 at 2:35 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

In case you missed it, Political Wire members now have access to the Inside Elections newsletter, which comes out twice a month.

This issue is the first gubernatorial overview of the cycle, including initial ratings and previews of the three states electing a governor this year (Louisiana, Mississippi, and Kentucky) and the eleven states holding a gubernatorial contest next year. This edition also includes a look at how predictive early senate ratings can be, as well as brief updates on more than a dozen other races across the country.

The next issue will be a House Overview, with initial House ratings and early analysis on all the competitive races.

If you’re not yet a member, sign up for an annual or monthly membership for instant access.

Inside Trump’s Troubled Intelligence Briefings

February 2, 2019 at 2:29 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“In the wake of President Trump’s renewed attacks on the U.S. intelligence community this week, senior intelligence briefers are breaking two years of silence to warn that the President is endangering American security with what they say is a stubborn disregard for their assessments,” Time reports.

“Citing multiple in-person episodes, these intelligence officials say Trump displays what one called ‘willful ignorance’ when presented with analyses generated by America’s $81 billion-a-year intelligence services. The officials, who include analysts who prepare Trump’s briefs and the briefers themselves, describe futile attempts to keep his attention by using visual aids, confining some briefing points to two or three sentences, and repeating his name and title as frequently as possible.”

“What is most troubling, say these officials and others in government and on Capitol Hill who have been briefed on the episodes, are Trump’s angry reactions when he is given information that contradicts positions he has taken or beliefs he holds. Two intelligence officers even reported that they have been warned to avoid giving the President intelligence assessments that contradict stances he has taken in public.”

Russia Pulls Out of Nuclear Treaty

February 2, 2019 at 2:04 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Russian President Vladimir Putin, in a decision that was widely expected, suspended his country’s observance of a key nuclear arms control pact on Saturday in response to a similar move by the United States a day before,” the New York Times reports.

“But adding to a sense that the broader architecture of nuclear disarmament has started to unravel, Mr. Putin also said that Russia would build weapons previously banned under the treaty and would no longer initiate talks with the United States on any matters related to nuclear arms control.”

Bernie Sanders Set to Announce 2020 Bid

February 2, 2019 at 12:40 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Two sources with direct knowledge of his plans told Yahoo News that Sanders, an independent and self-described ‘democratic socialist,’ plans to announce his presidential bid imminently. While Sanders has been considering a bid for months, one of the sources said he was emboldened by early polls of the race that have consistently showed him as one of the top candidates in a crowded Democratic primary field.”

“In particular, the source said Sanders was heartened to see numbers indicating he is one of the leading candidates among African American and Latino voters, two groups he was perceived as struggling with in 2016.”

“The source also alluded to a spate of recent polls that show Sanders as the most popular politician in the country. They attributed Sanders’ strength in the polls to the base and name recognition he built with the prior presidential bid.”

Moderate Democrats Rethink Plans to Run

February 2, 2019 at 12:00 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The rising Democratic enthusiasm for big government liberalism is forcing a trio of leading 2020 contenders to rethink jumping in,” several sources tell Axios.

“Michael Bloomberg and former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe, each of whom were virtual locks to run, are having serious second thoughts after watching Democrats embrace ‘Medicare for All,’ big tax increases and the Green New Deal. Joe Biden, who still wants to run, is being advised to delay any plans to see how this lurch to the left plays out. If Biden runs, look for Bloomberg and McAuliffe to bow out, the sources tell us.”

Key takeaway: “Iowa polling by a prominent 2020 hopeful found that the Democratic electorate has moved sharply left. For instance, the polling found that ‘socialism’ had a net positive rating, while ‘capitalism’ had a net negative rating.”

Northam Refuses to Resign

February 2, 2019 at 11:44 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam (D) is refusing to resign despite overwhelming pressure from within his own party and has told at least one lawmaker that he now does not think that a racist photo in his 1984 yearbook includes him,” the Washington Post reports.

The Richmond Times Dispatch notes Northam is changing his story from last night.

The New York Times says Northam “has been calling former classmates at Eastern Virginia Medical School in an effort to determine more information about the picture.”

“With the governor and his top advisers gathered in the executive residence next to the State Capitol in Richmond, the Democrat familiar with Mr. Northam’s calls said the governor was determined to prove it was not him in the photograph and was even considering using facial recognition software.”

Deutsche Bank Refused Trump Loan Request In 2016

February 2, 2019 at 11:33 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

New York Times: “Mr. Trump’s loan request, which has not been previously reported, set off a fight that reached the top of the German bank, according to three people familiar with the request. In the end, Deutsche Bank did something unexpected. It said no.”

“Senior officials at the bank, including its future chief executive, believed that Mr. Trump’s divisive candidacy made such a loan too risky, the people said. Among their concerns was that if Mr. Trump won the election and then defaulted, Deutsche Bank would have to choose between not collecting on the debt or seizing the assets of the president of the United States.”

Democrats Eye Milwaukee for Convention

February 2, 2019 at 10:25 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Playbook: “Our sources tell us Milwaukee is the odds-on favorite for the 2020 Democratic National Convention. (John Bresnahan’s sources tell him this too.) Houston and Miami are also still in the hunt, and all three cities have been asked to move forward with a master contract. Officials are pushing ahead to secure convention hotel rates, and representatives from all three cities were in D.C. last week delivering their final pitches.”

“Democrats need to win Wisconsin in 2020. The city has a new arena that has a lot of open space around it that could add some flexibility for planning and events.”