All Donald Trump had to do was declare victory on the economy. Step into a recovery that was already well underway, slap his name on it, and convince just enough voters that the prosperity they were feeling came from him.
That’s the playbook he followed during his first term and Democrats feared he’d do it again.
But instead of embracing a feel-good message, he leaned into retribution. Instead of selling optimism, he tested the boundaries of his power.
And in doing so, he may end up undermining his historic power grab.
As political scientists Steven Levitsky and Lucan Way remind us:
Authoritarian leaders do the most damage when they enjoy broad public support: Bukele, Chávez, Fujimori, and Russia’s Vladimir Putin all boasted approval ratings above 80 percent when they launched authoritarian power grabs.
Such overwhelming public support helps leaders secure the legislative supermajorities or landslide plebiscite victories needed to impose reforms that entrench autocratic rule. It also helps deter challenges from intraparty rivals, judges, and even much of the opposition.
That’s the danger: when populist strongmen ride a wave of popularity, they can bend institutions, rewrite rules, and consolidate power with frightening ease.
But Trump’s popularity is already waning quickly. If the country is pushed into recession, it will only get worse.
And as Trump’s approval numbers slip, so does his leverage. His allies will start hedging. His enemies will stop fearing. The aura of his invincibility will fade.
Trump’s flexing of power by unilaterally starting a global trade war, paradoxically, may also be what saves us from a full authoritarian takeover.

