President Trump tweeted — in all capital letters — that the only reason to vote for a Democrat is “if you’re tired of winning.”

He then left the White House for a campaign event in Philadelphia.

A new Quinnipiac poll finds Democrats leading Republicans in the generic congressional ballot by seven points, 49% to 42% — a drop from the 12 point lead they had last month.

Also interesting: American voters say by a 50% to 43% margin that they want Democrats to control the U.S. Senate.

Said pollster Tim Malloy: “The numbers suggest the big blue wave may have lost some of its momentum as House races tighten. President Trump’s approval remains deeply in the red. But five weeks out, voters prefer Democrats to take control of the Senate, putting the more elusive prize for Democrats within reach.”

Exclusive to Political Wire: A new survey by Professors Peter Enns and Jonathon Schuldt at Cornell University asked likely voters which political party they trusted more to handle election security, tax reform, and the federal budget deficit.

Considering the upcoming midterm elections, the results do not bode well for Republicans. Likely voters favored Democrats on all three issues; a particularly noteworthy pattern because historically, Republicans have “owned” the issues of domestic security, taxes, and the deficit.

About the survey: Data from Enns and Schuldt 2018 Midterm Election Study (Wave 2). The nationally representative survey of 1,046 likely voters was conducted by NORC at the University of Chicago between August 27 and September 6. This is the second wave of a panel survey funded by Cornell’s Center for the Study of Inequality.

Rachel Bitecofer: “My faithful followers will know that I made quite a shock wave in June and July when I announced unambiguously there would be a large Democratic wave. Though only just getting into the general election once will see how much movement the other outlets have had towards my predictions since July 1. Astute observers will notice that many of my districts initially coded as ‘likely to flip’ to the Democrats have been reclassified as ‘will flip’ districts and some original ‘toss up’ districts are now ‘likely to flip.’ I now have 22 districts coded as will flip. Several of these have had resources pulled from them by the Republican SuperPac.”

“As you know, Democrats actually need 23 districts to win control of the House and they all virtually guaranteed to do so given my expectation of converting more races into the ‘will flip’ category over the month of October. As you can see, with just a few exceptions, my race raters are still largely on the fence on these districts but I expect that by Election Day, they too will rate these as likely pick-ups for the Democrats. Just remember, you heard it here first.”