Forecast: Democrats Have Almost Locked Down House

Rachel Bitecofer: “My faithful followers will know that I made quite a shock wave in June and July when I announced unambiguously there would be a large Democratic wave. Though only just getting into the general election once will see how much movement the other outlets have had towards my predictions since July 1. Astute observers will notice that many of my districts initially coded as ‘likely to flip’ to the Democrats have been reclassified as ‘will flip’ districts and some original ‘toss up’ districts are now ‘likely to flip.’ I now have 22 districts coded as will flip. Several of these have had resources pulled from them by the Republican SuperPac.”

“As you know, Democrats actually need 23 districts to win control of the House and they all virtually guaranteed to do so given my expectation of converting more races into the ‘will flip’ category over the month of October. As you can see, with just a few exceptions, my race raters are still largely on the fence on these districts but I expect that by Election Day, they too will rate these as likely pick-ups for the Democrats. Just remember, you heard it here first.”