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2020 Polls Won’t Mean Much Until Biden Decides

March 28, 2019 at 3:16 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Vox: “The next time a new national 2020 poll comes out, you can probably fill in the blanks yourself: Biden at 30 percent or so, Sanders trailing 5-10 points behind him, O’Rourke and Harris both hanging around at 10 percent, Warren sitting at 5 percent-ish, and then a crowd of Booker, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Castro, and Kirsten Gillibrand with a few percentage points each.”

“The story has barely changed all year. The big unknown is how durable Biden’s stubbornly consistent lead really is — and we won’t know the answer to that until he decides whether or not to run. And even then, things may not really change until the first round of debates, when the public finally turns its full attention to the presidential campaign.”

Maddow Slides In Ratings, Hannity Soars

March 28, 2019 at 2:48 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Associated Press: “Maddow’s audience has dipped on her two days back on the air since Attorney General William Barr reported that special counsel Robert Mueller had found no collusion between Trump and Russia’s efforts. Her audience of 2.5 million on Monday was 19 percent below her average this year, and it went down further to 2.3 million on Tuesday.”

“Meanwhile, her head-to-head competitor on Fox News Channel, Sean Hannity, saw his audience soar on Monday to 4 million viewers, a 32 percent increase from his average. It slipped to 3.57 million on Tuesday. One of Trump’s most prominent media fans, Hannity was to interview the president on Wednesday’s show.”

O’Rourke, Klobuchar Step Up Spending on Facebook Ads

March 28, 2019 at 2:47 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

NBC News: “Trump’s spending in early 2019 was more than the Democratic campaigns combined, but he has been outspent by some candidates in recent weeks. Beto O’Rourke outspent Trump two weeks ago, dropping $157,000 on Facebook compared to Trump’s $109,000. Last week, Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), spent $198,000 to the president’s $150,000.”


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Pelosi Takes Charge of Her Party

March 28, 2019 at 2:45 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Ever since she reclaimed the gavel in January, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has been her party’s unquestioned leader,” the Washington Post reports.

“That perch has been bolstered this week as she has asserted herself as Democrats’ seasoned and pragmatic strategist following the conclusion of special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation.”

“From reassuring and reining in Democrats galled by Attorney General William Barr for issuing only a summary of the special counsel’s findings, to rallying her colleagues to fight the Trump administration’s efforts to gut President Barack Obama’s health-care law, Pelosi has taken charge.”

Trump Has Done ‘Too Little’ to Distance from Racists

March 28, 2019 at 2:43 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Pew Research poll finds a 56% majority says President Trump has done too little to distance himself from white nationalist groups, while 29% say he has done about the right amount to distance himself from such groups and 7% say he has done too much.

These views are virtually unchanged since December 2016, shortly before Trump took office.

First Democratic Debate Scheduled

March 28, 2019 at 1:32 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

The first Democratic debate of the 2020 presidential primary will take place on June 26 and 27 in Miami, Florida, NBC News announced.

Economy Grew Less Than Trump Claims

March 28, 2019 at 1:04 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Washington Post: “The U.S. economy grew 2.2 percent in the final quarter of last year, the Commerce Department said Thursday, less than the 2.6 percent the government initially estimated and another sign the economy is slowing.”

“President Trump, however, has focused on how fast the economy grew all of last year. Trump has been touting 3.1 percent growth in 2018. Officially, the Commerce Department said Thursday the economy grew 2.9 percent last year, slightly below Trump’s claim.”

New York Times: “Trump’s re-election could hinge on whether he is right about the economy, and nearly every other forecaster is wrong… But if he is wrong and the economy cools, Mr. Trump will have no one to credibly blame — and few places to turn for another jolt of stimulus if the United States slides into an economic contraction or recession.”

Pelosi Rips Barr for Summarizing Mueller Report

March 28, 2019 at 12:57 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

At a news conference, Speaker Nancy Pelosi criticized Attorney General William Barr for releasing a 4-page summary of the Mueller investigation rather than the special counsel’s entire report, calling it “condescending” and “arrogant,” Axios reports.

Said Pelosi: “No thank you Mr. Attorney General. We do not need your interpretation. Show us the report and we can draw our own conclusions. We don’t need you interpreting for us. It was condescending, it was arrogant and wasn’t the right thing to do. The sooner they can give us the information, the sooner we can make a judgment about it.”

How Trump Inflated His Net Worth

March 28, 2019 at 12:54 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“When Donald Trump wanted to make a good impression — on a lender, a business partner, or a journalist — he sometimes sent them official-looking documents called ‘Statements of Financial Condition,'” the Washington Post reports.

“These documents sometimes ran up to 20 pages. They were full of numbers, laying out Trump’s properties, debts and multibillion-dollar net worth.”

“But, for someone trying to get a true picture of Trump’s net worth, the documents were deeply flawed. Some simply omitted properties that carried big debts. Some assets were overvalued. And some key numbers were wrong.”

Tensions Escalate Between Trump and Puerto Rico

March 28, 2019 at 12:44 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Tensions are escalating between President Trump and Puerto Rico’s governor over disaster relief efforts that have been slow in coming for the still-battered island after Hurricane Maria,” CNN reports.

Gov. Ricardo Rosselló said he would not sit back and be bullied by the White House.

Said Rosselló: “If the bully gets close, I’ll punch the bully in the mouth. It would be a mistake to confuse courtesy with courage.”

Bennet Seems Likely to Run

March 28, 2019 at 11:46 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO) told Morning Joe, “I’m very inclined” to run for president in 2020.

On whether his decision is based on Joe Biden potentially running: ”It has absolutely nothing to do with the Vice President’s decision.”

Trump Pressures GOP to Pass Health Care Bill

March 28, 2019 at 10:59 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The White House has no proposal in the works, according to administration officials, but Trump wants Republicans to pass a bill before his reelection effort that would do what Obamacare does — provide coverage to millions of Americans,” the Washington Post reports.

“If Republicans refuse, Trump is ready to force them by trying to create a ‘crisis moment’ in the courts, according to one lawmaker in close contact with the White House who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe the strategy.”

“House Republicans privately worry it will cripple their attempts to reclaim the chamber and could even cost them additional seats in 2020.”

Mueller Report Is More Than 300 Pages

March 28, 2019 at 10:30 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The still-secret report on Russian interference in the 2016 election submitted by the special counsel, Robert Mueller, last week was more than 300 pages long, a length that raises new questions about Attorney General William Barr’s four-page summary,” the New York Times reports.

“The total of 300-plus pages suggests that Mr. Mueller went well beyond the kind of bare-bones summary required by the Justice Department regulation governing his appointment and detailed his conclusions at length. And it raises questions about what Mr. Barr might have left out of the four dense pages he sent Congress.”

“Democrats, who like all other lawmakers have not seen the report, have all but accused Mr. Barr of covering up damaging information it contains.”

GOP Ramps Up Calls for Schiff to Resign

March 28, 2019 at 10:29 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The House Intelligence Committee devolved into bitter infighting Thursday at a public hearing after all nine Republicans on the panel called on Chairman Adam Schiff to resign from his post, while the California Democrat responded with a blistering account of what he termed ‘evidence of collusion’ between President Donald Trump’s campaign and Russian interests,” Politico reports.

Trump Underwater In New Hampshire

March 28, 2019 at 10:27 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new American Research Group poll finds just 34% of adults in New Hampshire say they approve of the way President Trump is handling his job, while 58% disapprove, and 8% are undecided.

Cohen Testified Trump Committed Insurance Fraud

March 28, 2019 at 9:59 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Trump’s longtime fixer and personal attorney told lawmakers earlier this month that Trump submitted a false insurance claim regarding a fresco on the ceiling of Melania Trump’s bathroom,” the Washington Post reports.

“Lawmakers are looking into Cohen’s claim, which would be the first example of insurance fraud that has surfaced following his public testimony that Trump often exaggerated his personal wealth in financial documents provided to banks and insurers.”

How Barr Controls the Fate of the Mueller Report

March 28, 2019 at 9:57 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Time: “More than politics is at stake in how Barr handles the close of the Mueller probe. The reputation of the Department of Justice, attacked on the one hand for two years by the President who leads it and on the other by Democrats with oversight authority on Capitol Hill, hangs on the Attorney General. So too does the balance of power between the White House and Congress…. What’s clear is that Barr is making history. He alone will decide, on the basis of his experience, beliefs and personality, how this consequential chapter of the Trump presidency plays out.”

“In normal circumstances, Attorney General is one of the most difficult jobs in government… And these are not normal circumstances. Barr inherited an agency battered by the President, beset by scandals and facing challenges ranging from the Mueller report to criminal-justice reform and immigration enforcement… The Attorney General, who had to be talked into taking the job, will have a big role in shaping the presidency of the man who hired him.”

Trump’s Approval Is Remarkably Stable

March 28, 2019 at 9:36 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Geoffrey Skelley: “If there’s one thing that’s been consistent about President Trump’s time in office, it’s his approval rating. Sure, it has moved around a bit — his average approval has hovered between 36 percent and 45 percent, a fluctuation of 9 points, over practically the entire course of his presidency.”

“But that’s a really narrow band, especially compared to previous presidents, and it has meant that his median approval rating is low — only President Harry Truman had a lower median rating. Trump’s approval rating has the least variation of any post-World War II president. Granted, Trump hasn’t yet served a full term, but changes in his approval rating have been remarkably small.”

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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