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Biden’s Decision Will Change Contours of Race

February 21, 2019 at 8:35 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

First Read: “With Bernie Sanders in the 2020 race, Biden’s decision to run or to pass could be the last big question remaining when it comes to the composition of the Dem field — outside of Beto O’Rourke (who looks more and more like he’s running).”

“If Biden’s in, it potentially changes the math in places like South Carolina and the South (given his standing with African-American voters), and it narrows that pragmatic lane that Amy Klobuchar has been hugging lately.”

“But if Biden’s out, it opens up both South Carolina and the South, as well as that pragmatic lane.”

Roger Stone Could Go to Jail Today

February 21, 2019 at 8:23 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Federal Judge Amy Berman Jackson is set to decide Thursday whether to stiffen — or revoke — the release bond of Republican trickster Roger Stone for posting an Instagram photo of the judge next to an apparent rifle scope’s crosshair,” CNBC reports.

“The abruptly scheduled hearing in Washington federal court, set for 2:30 p.m. ET, doesn’t bode well for Stone, a longtime friend and advisor of President Trump.”

Pompeo Rules Out Senate Bid

February 21, 2019 at 8:16 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told NBC News he would not run for U.S. Senate from Kansas.

Said Pompeo: “It’s ruled out. I’m here. I’m loving it… I’m going to be the Secretary of State as long as President Trump gives me the opportunity to serve as America’s senior diplomat.”


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The Keys to Winning the Democratic Primary

February 21, 2019 at 8:14 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Molly Ball: “The field is likely to be the largest in either party’s history, there’s no front runner in sight, and the stakes could hardly be higher. It’s not just that many Democrats argue Donald Trump is a threat to American democracy. The party’s very identity is up for grabs, as a vast and historically diverse crop of candidates brings big new ideas to a demanding, divided base.”

“As much as they would like to move away from white male dominance, some rank-and-file Democrats worry that doing so would hurt the party’s chances against Trump. They fear that a woman or nonwhite candidate would be damaged by Trump’s sexism and race-baiting. And to the party faithful, winning is everything.”

“More than anything—more than policy or charisma or age or race or gender—Democratic voters say they care about whether a candidate can beat Donald Trump.”

Mueller Is Driving the Timing of His Report

February 21, 2019 at 7:32 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Marcy Wheeler: “I’m fairly certain the concerns about Barr coming in and forcing Mueller to finish this are misplaced. I say that, in part, because Mueller seemed to be preparing for this timing. I say it, too, because Barr is too close to Mueller to do that to him.”

“That says that Mueller is choosing this timing (and choosing not to wait for the appeals to be done). Whatever reason dictates this timing, by doing it in this window, Mueller can ensure the legitimacy of what happens, both legally (because Barr will be in place) and politically (because it will be clear Rosenstein presided over it).”

“So whatever comes next week, people on both sides should accept that it is the outcome of the investigation that Mueller deemed appropriate.”

What Happens to Mueller’s Sealed Indictments?

February 21, 2019 at 7:24 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Garrett Graff: “The media and bloggers have regularly tracked the abnormally large number of sealed indictments filed over the last year in DC federal court, the jurisdiction where Mueller has been worked, including 14 added between August and November—a period where Mueller was theoretically ‘quiet’ around the midterm election—and four recent sealed indictment that seemed to parallel the Stone indictment.”

“Whether any relatee to Mueller remains to be seen, but in some ways the idea of piling up sealed indictments would have been the smartest way for Mueller to ensure that if he was fired, his case lived on.”

New Jersey Democrats Line Up Behind Booker

February 21, 2019 at 7:17 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Sen. Cory Booker’s campaign will announce a slew of endorsements Thursday from New Jersey Democrats in a show of home state support so far unmatched by rival Democratic candidates for president,” CNN reports.

“Every Democrat in New Jersey’s congressional delegation is throwing their support behind the state’s junior senator — including 11 House members, among them House Energy and Commerce Committee Chairman Frank Pallone, and Sen. Bob Menendez, who previously announced he would back Booker.”

Netanyahu Challengers Unite In Bid to Defeat Him

February 21, 2019 at 7:08 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Two of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s strongest challengers in April elections have announced a centrist alliance in a bid to defeat him,” the BBC reports.

“Ex-army chief Benny Gantz and centrist politician Yair Lapid agreed to rotate as prime minister if they win.”

“Separately, Mr Netanyahu forged an alliance with several far-right parties to try to shore up votes. His right-wing Likud party leads the polls despite an investigation into corruption allegations against him.”

Axios: “The joint list does not have a common political platform — and, on many issues, there are big differences between the factions. However, the main issue they all agree on is the need to replace Netanyahu.”

Trump Campaign Optimism Grows as Democrats Move Left

February 21, 2019 at 7:05 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Republicans toiling to re-elect President Trump are freshly optimistic, confident a Democratic Party dominated by ambitious progressives is scaring wayward factions of the conservative coalition back into the fold,” the Washington Examiner reports.

“With a midterm election rebuke and disastrous government shutdown in the rear view, Trump’s 2020 campaign team and constellation of key outside supporters are sensing a turnaround. The president hasn’t changed his controversial ways. But Trump’s top lieutenants believe that newly empowered liberal Democrats — in Washington and across the country — plus the sometimes peculiar spectacle of the Democratic primary, are causing uneasy Republicans to reconsider their opposition.”

Miami Makes Final Pitch for Democratic Convention

February 21, 2019 at 6:59 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Miami fears the fix is in. Local Democrats increasingly believe that the Democratic National Convention in 2020 will be sited in Milwaukee, a conclusion that’s led Florida politicians, donors and insiders to mount a final lobbying blitz to turn the tide,” Politico reports.

“The last-ditch effort began in earnest in recent days as speculation mounted that Democratic National Committee Chairman Tom Perez would pick Milwaukee, where he has both family ties and the pressure of the Democratic governors of Wisconsin and Illinois weighing on him to go with a Midwestern location.”

Playbook: “Democrats involved in the bids believe an announcement could come as soon as next week.”

Biden Gets Closer to a White House Bid

February 21, 2019 at 6:36 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

NBC News: “Joe Biden wants to be president. And each day, he’s closer to being ready to run for the office. But even as he weighs a campaign to unseat President Donald Trump, Biden is carefully considering a key question — what happens when the president or his top allies try to make his family an issue?”

“Conversations with aides to the former vice president and others who’ve spoken with him in recent weeks present the idea of a Biden candidacy as not if but when. Since the start of the year it’s been like a “slow boil,” as one aide put it, with Biden’s answer on whether to run moving in a steady direction toward yes, incrementally warmer with each passing day.”

Byrne Will Challenge Jones In Alabama

February 21, 2019 at 6:30 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Republicans landed a top-tier recruit Wednesday in a race critical to their hopes of holding the Senate in 2020, when GOP Rep. Bradley Byrne jumped into the campaign against the most vulnerable Democrat up for reelection, Alabama’s Doug Jones,” Politico reports.

“After his shocking special election win in 2017 in deeply conservative Alabama, defeating Jones is the GOP’s best opportunity to flip a Democratic-held seat — making the contest a vital insurance policy for the party to protect its majority, currently 53-47.”

How Robert Mueller Might ‘Wrap Up’

February 20, 2019 at 10:48 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Garrett Graff: “While the seven scenarios above capture the broad outlines of what the end of his probe might look like, the truth is that he could choose some of one and a bit of another, meaning that there are almost infinite variations of how the case could unfold from him in the days ahead.”

“Yet it’s also worth noting that the Mueller probe—however it ends—represents a shrinking percentage of Trump’s potential legal troubles, as a total of at least 18 investigations surround Trump’s world, led by at least seven different prosecutors and investigators… Even a complete and total clean exoneration by Mueller on the Russia question would represent only a tiny ray of legal sunshine for the president.”

“And yet there’s good reason to believe that Trump won’t get that total exoneration, as Mueller’s conspicuous silences in court filings on the collusion question seem to indicate he’s building toward something. Indeed, there have only been two immutable truths thus far in the Mueller probe: First, every move has surprised us, both in timing and content; second, every court filing has been more informed, detailed, and insightful than anyone imagined, and shown us that what we knew publicly was only the tip of the iceberg. There’s no reason to think that Mueller’s denouement will be anything different.”

Michael Cohen Will Testify Next Week

February 20, 2019 at 10:45 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Michael Cohen has agreed to testify in public next Wednesday before Congress about his work as President Trump’s personal lawyer and longtime fixer, but lawmakers said they would limit the scope of their questioning in deference to the special counsel,” the New York Times reports.

Pelosi Calls for Vote on Trump’s Emergency

February 20, 2019 at 9:31 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced Wednesday night that the House will vote in the coming day on a resolution disapproving President Trump’s emergency declaration to build his wall with Mexico, encouraging her members to support the effort as they try to stop construction at the border,” the Washington Post reports.

Pelosi said Trump’s declaration “undermines the separation of powers and Congress’s power of the purse, a power exclusively reserved by the text of the Constitution to the first branch of government, the Legislative branch, a branch co-equal to the Executive.”

She announced that the House would move “swiftly” to pass the resolution in the coming days.

Bernie Sanders Will Become a Democrat

February 20, 2019 at 9:05 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Sen. Bernie Sanders “plans to sign a party pledge affirming that he will run for president as a Democrat in 2020 and serve as one if elected,” CNN reports.

“The Democratic National Committee said on Tuesday that it planned to meet in the coming week with the presidential primary campaigns and distribute a form to the candidates, who under bylaws agreed on last August will be required ‘to affirm in writing’ that they ‘are a member of the Democratic Party, will accept the Democratic nomination’ and ‘will run and serve as a member of the Democratic Party.'”

Ernst Approval Hits New High

February 20, 2019 at 8:01 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Des Moines Register poll finds 57% of Iowans say they approve of the job that Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) is doing — a 10 percentage-point increase since September.

No other candidate, Republican or Democrat, has announced intentions to challenge Ernst in 2020.

Kamala Harris Shamed by Jamaican Father

February 20, 2019 at 7:57 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Donald Harris, the father of Sen. Kamala Harris, told a Jamaican website that he did not appreciate his daughter’s joke about smoking marijuana in reference to her Jamaican heritage,” Politico reports.

Said the elder Harris: “My dear departed grandmothers, as well as my deceased parents, must be turning in their grave right now to see their family’s name, reputation and proud Jamaican identity being connected, in any way, jokingly or not with the fraudulent stereotype of a pot-smoking joy seeker and in the pursuit of identity politics.”

He added: “Speaking for myself and my immediate Jamaican family, we wish to categorically dissociate ourselves from this travesty.”

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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