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Banner Year for Women Doesn’t Extend to Republicans

November 15, 2018 at 10:49 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“It is the year of the woman, all right. But only for Democrats,” the New York Times reports.

“The number of Republican women in Congress next year will actually drop, even as the ranks of Democratic women swell to record heights. With a few races still undecided, the new Congress will have at least 105 Democratic women and 19 Republican women.”

“But that is not all: From Congress to governor to state legislatures, far more Democratic women ran in this cycle than Republican women. And that means fewer Republican women on the bench, gathering experience and credentials to move up to the next level.”

Beto O’Rourke May Have Sidelined Julián Castro

November 15, 2018 at 10:36 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Texas Monthly: “The allure of San Antonio’s Castro brothers has been building for years and their status as the crown princes of a new era of Texas Hispanic politics is now well established. As one longtime Democratic consultant said, they have successfully established themselves as the next generation of leadership in Texas, with an Ivy League pedigree and reputation for strategic thinking. But something happened this election cycle: Beto O’Rourke.”

Said the Democratic consultant: “Julián and his brother are like Bing Crosby and Perry Como—who just saw Elvis.”

“Before Beto, there has been a well-choreographed buildup to the will-he-or-won’t-he moment when former San Antonio mayor and former Obama cabinet member Julián Castro announces his decision about a presidential run in 2020.”

1965 Political Thriller Re-Issued

November 15, 2018 at 9:29 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

The 1965 bestselling novel Night of Camp David by Fletcher Knebel has been re-released by the publisher as What Would Happen if the President of the United States Went Stark-Raving Mad?

Senator Jim MacVeagh is proud to serve his country—and his president, Mark Hollenbach, who has a near-spotless reputation as the vibrant, charismatic leader of MacVeagh’s party and the nation. When Hollenbach begins taking MacVeagh into his confidence, the young senator knows that his star is on the rise.

But then Hollenbach starts summoning MacVeagh in the middle of the night to Camp David. There, the president sits in the dark and rants about his enemies, unfurling insane theories about all the people he says are conspiring against him.

I’d never heard of this book but it’s a must-read over the holidays.


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The College Divide

November 15, 2018 at 9:20 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

First Read: “Before Election Day 2018, Republicans held 13 of the 40 congressional districts with the highest share of adults over 25 with a college degree.”

“After the midterms, however, that’s now down to just four. And if Rep. Mimi Walters in California ultimately loses her still-uncalled reelection race, as expected, it’ll be just three Republicans remaining.”

“That surge of Democratic enthusiasm from college-educated voters was captured in the exit polls, too. Overall, college graduates broke for Democrats in the midterms by 20 percentage points, while those with no college degree were equally split. Among only white college graduates, Democrats had an advantage of 8 percentage points. And among just female while college graduates, it was 20 points.”

Summit Will Go On Despite Lack of Cooperation

November 15, 2018 at 9:05 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The U.S. will not require North Korea to provide a complete list of its nuclear weapons and missile sites before President Donald Trump and the North’s leader Kim Jong Un meet for a second time,” Vice President Mike Pence told NBC News.

“Since an initial agreement for denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula was reached between Trump and Kim in June, the United States has pressed the North Koreans to provide information on the entirety of its nuclear operations. The Kim regime has refused to provide the details of the country’s operations and postponed scheduled meetings with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in New York City last week.”

Trump Insists White House Is ‘Running Very Smoothly’

November 15, 2018 at 8:25 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

President Trump pushed back on media reports about infighting at the White House.

Said Trump:”The White House is running very smoothly and the results for our Nation are obviously very good. We are the envy of the world. But anytime I even think about making changes, the FAKE NEWS MEDIA goes crazy, always seeking to make us look as bad as possible! Very dishonest!”

Odds Are Against Bill Nelson In Florida Recount

November 15, 2018 at 8:19 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

CNN: “Scott holds a little more than a 12,000 vote lead over Nelson. That amounts to an advantage of about 0.15 percentage points, which is well within the 0.25 point margin needed for a manual recount required by Florida law. This margin may seem small, but for recount purposes, it is actually quite large.”

“According to a FairVote database of statewide recounts from 2000 to 2015, the average recount moves the margin by 0.02 points. Nelson needs the margin to move by nearly eight times as much.”

Trump Resumes Attacks on Robert Mueller

November 15, 2018 at 8:11 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

President Trump resumed his Twitter attacks on special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation, calling its “a total mess.”

Said Trump: “The inner workings of the Mueller investigation are a total mess. They have found no collusion and have gone absolutely nuts. They are screaming and shouting at people, horribly threatening them to come up with the answers they want.”

In another tweet: “They won’t even look at all of the bad acts and crimes on the other side.”

Judge Gives Florida Voters Time to Fix Ballots

November 15, 2018 at 8:08 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Florida’s historic recount was thrown once more into uncertainty Thursday when a federal judge ruled that at least 4,000 voters whose mail-in and provisional ballots were rejected because of issues with their signatures may be given two days to resolve the problem and have their votes counted,” the Washington Post reports.

“The decision by Judge Mark Walker of the U.S. District Court in Tallahassee came hours ahead of the Thursday afternoon deadline for elections officials to complete a machine recount… It was not clear how the judge’s decision would affect the timing of recount, which was expected to move to a manual canvass Friday in the too-close-to-call Senate race, in which Gov. Rick Scott (R) leads Sen. Bill Nelson (D) by fewer than 13,000 votes.”

The Threat to Trump’s Economy

November 15, 2018 at 7:34 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

President Trump, “already in a grumpy post-midterm mood, faces a growing list of economic problems that could irritate him even more next year. Chief among them is a withdrawal from the economy’s sugar high,” Politico reports.

“Fiscal stimulus from the GOP tax cuts is likely to start running out. The Federal Reserve is expected to keep bumping up interest rates. And few analysts expect a divided Congress — facing soaring deficits and with its eyes on 2020 — to join hands and pass a big infrastructure package or sweeping middle-class tax cuts to keep the fiscal juice flowing.”

Mattis Spins Border Mission as ‘Good Training’

November 15, 2018 at 7:21 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Defense Secretary Jim Mattis defended the use of active duty troops on the U.S.-Mexican border, saying that in some ways it provides good training for war,” the AP reports.

“He argued that it’s analogous to a 1916 deployment to counter the Mexican revolutionary Gen. Francisco ‘Pancho’ Villa.”

Trump Faces a Two-Front War In 2020

November 15, 2018 at 7:15 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“To win re-election, President Trump must wage a two-front war: Not only does he have to defend Democratic-leaning Midwest states that sealed his victory in 2016, but he now needs to defend against clear Republican erosion in the South and Southwest,” Mike Allen reports.

Said former White House aide Doug Sosnik: “Changing demographics and Trump have blown up the electoral map that has dominated American politics since 1992.”

“Sosnik projects that there could be more tossup states in the South and Southwest than in the Midwest — with almost twice the number of electoral votes at stake.”

New Trump Target in 2020 Is Minnesota

November 15, 2018 at 7:13 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“President Trump could be eyeing Minnesota as a way to expand his Midwest footprint in 2020, if the activities of his designated super PAC in the midterm elections are any indication,” the Washington Examiner reports.

“Minnesota was among the limited 2018 battlegrounds to see a major investment by America First Action, which gathered data that might inform Trump’s strategy and boost his re-election bid over the next two years. America First Action tailored its activities to states and subregions considered crucial to Trump’s next campaign: Michigan; Minnesota; North Carolina; Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Maine’s 2nd Congressional District.”

McCarthy Blames Loss of House on ‘Historical Trends’

November 15, 2018 at 7:07 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“House Republicans immediately resumed a wartime posture Wednesday after electing its new leadership — vowing to aggressively resist Democrats’ agenda and work to recapture the House majority after being routed in last week’s elections,” Politico reports.

“In his first press conference after Republicans chose him to be House minority leader next year, Rep. Kevin McCarthy largely attributed the GOP wipeout to historical trends while also repeatedly blaming spending by former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg as the cause of several Republican defeats in close contests.”

Theresa May Faces New Resignations

November 15, 2018 at 7:00 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Theresa May’s battle to win wider backing for her Brexit deal was dealt a severe blow on Thursday morning by the resignation of Dominic Raab, the minister responsible for negotiating Britain’s exit from the EU,” the Financial Times reports.

“Mr. Raab, who was only appointed this summer after the resignation of David Davis, said in his resignation letter that he could not support an ‘indefinite backstop arrangement.”

“His departure is likely to embolden other Eurosceptic ministers to quit the government and makes it less likely that Mrs. May can get her plan through parliament.”

One U.K. government minister told the Daily Beast that the government was “fucked, in every hole” and admitted this could be the endgame for May, saying there were three possible routes: May resigns as prime minister, she fights a leadership challenge in her party, or she calls an election.

Judge Orders More Georgia Ballots Counted

November 14, 2018 at 11:32 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“A federal judge has ruled that Georgia counties must count absentee ballots even if the voter’s date of birth is incorrect or missing, and he is preventing the state from finalizing election results until that happens,” the Atlanta Journal Constitution reports.

“Although U.S. District Judge Steve Jones agreed with the Georgia Democratic Party and Stacey Abrams’ campaign on this issue, he ruled against them on two others. He will not require counties to accept absentee ballots with incorrect residence addresses or to accept provisional ballots cast by people who attempted to vote in a different county than where they are registered to vote.”

Retailer Markets ‘Build the Wall’ Toy

November 14, 2018 at 11:09 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Conservative gift retailer Keep and Bear will soon begin shipping a ‘Build the Wall‘ toy which resembles a LEGO product and extols the virtues of President Trump’s proposed border wall along the United States’ southern border with Mexico,” USA Today reports.

From the product’s description: “A mob of 10,000 Central American migrants is marching through Mexico and heading toward El Paso, Texas. Mexican border agents attempted to stop them at the Mexican border, but to no avail.”

“The wall will keep America safe and strong. Only then will we be able to help those in need.”

Sloppy Signatures May Disqualify Thousands of Florida Votes

November 14, 2018 at 10:59 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

New York Times: “At least 5,000 ballots from all voters — and perhaps twice that many — were left uncounted across Florida as a result of signature mismatches, according to various estimates from the Florida secretary of state and analysts examining the latest data.”

“The signature battle touches on constitutional questions of equal protection and free speech. But it is rooted in larger societal trends that are rapidly rendering an individual’s handwriting an unreliable electoral hallmark.”

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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