Amanda Carpenter, a former communications director for Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), has had enough of the Trump White House:
White House Gives Phones to Senior Staff for Politics
“The White House will allow as many as a dozen senior advisers to receive additional cell phones so that they can contact the RNC regarding the fall midterm elections,” The Hill reports.
“A White House official, who was granted anonymity to describe the plan, said the arrangement was made in order to allow certain senior advisers to ‘conduct political activity during core working hours,’ when personal devices are not permitted inside working areas of the White House.”
Suddenly Deficits Don’t Matter Again
Jonathan Chait: “During the Obama era, Democrats frequently believed, but only rarely uttered aloud in official forums, that the Republican Party was engaged in economic sabotage. Not a coldly conscious plot, exactly. But it seemed just a little too convenient that the party had reversed its fiscal ideology at precisely the time when doing so would damage Democrats and thereby smooth the GOP’s return to power.”
“Now that Republicans have reversed their position once again, also in a way that happens to redound to their political benefit, the answer seems a little more clear. Republicans have used their control of government to virtually double the budget deficit, which had been hovering around half a trillion dollars per year, and will now likely run well over $1 trillion — during the peak of an economic expansion. There is no economic rationale for this behavior. Their policy is simply to support fiscal contraction under Democratic presidents and fiscal expansion under Republican ones. Cynicism is the only basis to explain their behavior.”
Question of the Day
“Can you comment on why you often seem a little bit out of the loop on some of this major news?”
— Washington Post reporter Ashley Parker, on C-SPAN, asking Vice President Mike Pence about the resignation of White House staff secretary Rob Porter.
Kelly Feels the Heat In the White House
“A day after White House Staff Secretary Rob Porter resigned amid allegations he physically abused his ex-wives, the Trump administration is still struggling to contain the fallout. The question of who knew what, and when, is being hotly debated in the West Wing. Chief of Staff John Kelly, whose relationship with Trump has been strained in recent weeks, is taking the lion’s share of the blame,” according to Vanity Fair.
“On Wednesday night, Donald Trump vented to advisers that Kelly had not fully briefed him on Porter’s issues with women until recently… Trump was also not aware of the severity of the alleged abuse until yesterday, when Ivanka walked into the Oval Office and showed her father a photo published in the Daily Mail of Porter’s ex-wife with a black eye.”
Said one Republican: “He was fucking pissed.”
“The crisis also raises questions about Hope Hicks’s decision-making, and whether her romantic relationship with Porter clouded her judgment…. In recent weeks, Trump has been angry at Hicks for her role in approving interviews with Michael Wolff, a Republican close to the White House told me.”
Stock Market Plunges Again
The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged more than 1,000 points during trading Thursday, the latest major swing in a volatile week for the market.
New York Times: “One likely catalyst for Thursday’s fall were comments from the Bank of England that it might raise interest rates sooner and higher than expected as it looks to fend off possible inflation. That was the latest signal that an epic run of easy money, which buoyed markets worldwide, is coming to an end.”
All Eyes on Democrats as Budget Vote Nears
Politico: “The Senate will go first and is expected to pass the bill with relative ease. One wrinkle emerged Thursday afternoon with Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) blocking speedy consideration of the measure until he gets a vote on an amendment to keep Congress under strict budget caps. Still, Senate GOP leaders believe they can work things out with Paul.”
“But the plan could unravel in the House, where conservative opposition is forcing Republican leaders to lean on Democrats for votes as House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi digs in with immigration demands.”
Washington Post: “Ryan suggested in a radio interview Thursday that he would be able to deliver a majority of Republicans — about 120 votes — meaning about half of the 193 Democrats might be necessary to pass the deal. That could be a tough sell among House Democrats, who are livid that their demands for protections for ‘dreamers’ — immigrants brought to the United States as children now living in the country illegally — were not made part of the deal.”
USA Today: “With the clock ticking toward a midnight funding deadline, Senate leaders said they could not provide any update about the timing for a vote.”
Trump’s Fed Nomination In Trouble
Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) “said he will vote against Marvin Goodfriend’s bid to become a member of the Federal Reserve board, a move that could sink the nomination on the Senate floor,” Politico reports.
“Goodfriend, nominated by President Trump, was approved by the Senate Banking Committee in a 13-12 party-line vote, indicating that he is unlikely to receive any Democratic support. With Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) out for health reasons, any Republican ‘no’ vote could defeat his nomination.”
Bonus Quote of the Day
“I was haunted by tweets every single day. Like, what is he going to tweet next?”
— Omarosa Manigault, on Celebrity Big Brother, about life in the Trump White House.
Is This the End of the House Freedom Caucus?
Stan Collender: “The House Freedom Caucus, the ultra-conservative group of 30-40 Republicans that pushed former Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) to resign and has often been the bane of current Speaker Paul Ryan’s existence because of its take-no-prisoners attitude, may be completely neutered by the budget deal announced in the Senate yesterday.”
“Indeed, all of HFC’s major reasons for existing at all could be eliminated if the deal is approved.”
Democrats Expand Battleground to 101 GOP Seats
House Democrats are stepping on the gas, with plans to target 101 Republican-held congressional districts in the midterm elections, NBC News reports.
“The DCCC’s own polling of key districts has been more promising than national trends, showing President Donald Trump underwater not just in the 23 GOP-held districts Clinton won, but also in the more than 60 districts Trump won, and the 11 where retirements have left the seat open.”
“Democrats are now fielding candidates in all but 12 of the 238 districts held by Republicans… The idea is to expand the map as much as possible and hope to ride the potential wave.”
House Intel Republicans Plan to Wall Off Their Aides
“In a sign of increasing partisan hostilities, Republicans on the House Intelligence Committee plan to construct a wall – a physical partition – separating Republican and Democratic staff members in the committee’s secure spaces,” CBS News reports.
“For now, some Republican committee members deny knowing anything about it, while strongly suggesting the division is the brainchild of the committee’s chairman, Devin Nunes (R-CA).”
Ratings for 21 House Seats Shift Towards Democrats
Though Republicans have closed the gap in the generic congressional ballot, the Cook Political Report notes that “most new district-by-district fundraising and polling numbers are downright terrible for Republicans, even in seats previously thought to be safe.”
“This week, we’re shifting our ratings in 21 races towards Democrats. If anything, that still understates Democrats’ potential in individual races. If Democrats win the national House vote by six points (as today’s polls indicate), House control would be a coin flip. But according to our new ratings, if each party were to win an even number of Toss Up races, Democrats would only win 13 or 14 seats — ten shy of the 24 they need.”
GOP Still Favored to Keep Control of Senate
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “Republicans have better than 50-50 odds to hold control of the U.S. Senate even in the event of a Democratic wave in November.”
“The reason is the map: Including the two independents who caucus with them, the Democrats are defending 26 of the 34 seats being contested this fall, which is the most lopsided Senate map any party has faced in a midterm since 1938. Five of the Democratic seats are in states that Donald Trump won in landslides, and another five are in states he won.”
“Because the map is so good for Republicans, it is possible they will add to their majority even if the electoral environment otherwise breaks against them in other elections, such as those for the U.S. House of Representatives. That said, the Democrats do have a path to a Senate majority, albeit slim.”
Trump Is Setting a Patriotism Trap
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Democrats In Close Race for California Governor
A new Public Policy Institute of California poll in California finds Gavin Newsom (D) and Antonio Villaraigosa (D) in a close race among likely voters in the gubernatorial primary, 23% to 21%, with 24% undecided. Fewer would vote for Democrat John Chiang (9%), Republican Travis Allen (8%), Republican John Cox (7%), Democrat Delaine Eastin (4%), or Republican Doug Ose (3%).
Meanwhile, Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) continues to lead Kevin de León (D) in a U.S. Senate primary, 46% to 17%.
Republicans Completely Reverse Themselves on Deficit
Washington Post: “Republican lawmakers in 2011 brought the U.S. government to the brink of default, refused to raise the debt ceiling, demanded huge spending cuts, and insisted on a constitutional amendment to balance the budget.”
“On Wednesday, they formally broke free from those fiscal principles and announced a plan that would add $500 billion in new spending over two years and suspend the debt ceiling until 2019. This came several months after Republicans passed a tax law that would add more than $1 trillion to the debt over a decade.”
“With all these changes, the annual gap between spending and revenue in 2019 is projected to eclipse $1.1 trillion, up from $439 billion in 2015. And they are expanding the deficit at an unusual time, when the economy is growing and unemployment is low, a dynamic that often leads to shrinking budget gaps.”
Trump’s Allies Use TV to Warn Him Off Mueller Interview
“As Donald Trump’s lawyers continue to negotiate terms of an interview with Special Counsel Robert Mueller, the president’s allies are increasingly trying to warn him against it, using one of the few methods they have — television,” Bloomberg reports.
“Trump’s longtime friends and advisers have grown increasingly concerned that a face-to-face interview with Mueller could derail his presidency and are hoping to catch the president’s ear during his hours of channel-surfing, said one such adviser. In recent weeks, Trump’s outside advisers have gone on Fox News, CNN, and ABC’s “Good Morning America” with almost identical talking points about the risks of a Mueller interview.”
