A new Washington Post-ABC News poll finds Democratic candidates for the House lead Republicans by 11 percentage points among registered voters, 53% to 42%.

“That holds among likely voters across a range of turnout scenarios, with 12- to 14-point Democratic leads. It’s difficult for Democrats to hold their vote share in the shift from registered to likely voters, especially in midterms – a testament to Democratic motivation this year.”

Washington Post: “Enthusiasm is up across almost all demographic groups, but the increases are greater among younger adults, nonwhite voters and those who say they favor Democrats for the House.”

The latest CNN Senate forecast: Republicans will hold 52 seats (and maintain control of the Senate) next Congress while Democrats will hold just 48. Anything between Republicans holding 47 seats and 57 seats is within the margin of error.

Harry Enten: “Republican hopes of holding the Senate look as bright as ever. Thanks to clear Republican advantages in North Dakota, Tennessee and Texas in our forecast, the Democratic path to a Senate majority is currently blocked. All of those races are within the margin of error, but they aren’t razor tight.”

“For 2020 presidential implications, however, the forecast has good news for Democrats. President Donald Trump was able to win in 2016 because he broke the Democratic stranglehold on the Midwest. Specifically, he took Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin… All of these states except Iowa have a Senate race in 2018, and Democrats lead in all of them.”

“In a worrisome sign for two endangered Orange County lawmakers, a major Republican Party funding group has passed over the pair in its opening round of broadcast television advertising across Southern California,” the Los Angeles Times reports.

“The omission of Reps. Dana Rohrabacher and Mimi Walters by the Congressional Leadership Fund, a political action committee closely aligned with House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI), comes at a crucial inflection point in the midterm election when the two parties begin assessing their likely winners and losers.”

New York Times: “As an edgy, divided nation heads into a crucial election, much of the attention is focused on the anti-Trump animus of suburban women, which seems to have gained a few degrees in intensity over the Supreme Court confirmation of Brett M. Kavanaugh.”

“Much less examined are their male counterparts. While recent polls show that white women with a college degree favor Democratic House candidates by a large margin, 20 points or more, white college-educated men — who focus more singularly on economic issues, according to surveys — are a potential bulwark for the president and his party. It is especially true in suburban battleground districts that are likely to help decide the next House majority.”