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Gerrymandering Is Only Half the Problem for Democrats

March 26, 2018 at 1:36 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

A new Brennan Center report says “extreme gerrymandering” could cost Democrats control of the House unless they ride a massive blue wave.

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Stormy Daniels’ Legal Strategy Suggests She Has Photos

March 26, 2018 at 1:04 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Daily Beast: “First, it’s chiefly concerned with ‘certain still images and/or text messages.’ Yes, later in the agreement, the ‘confidential information’ at issue is expansively defined, to include absolutely anything, tangible or intangible, that Daniels might know about Trump, including, of course, whether she spanked him with a magazine or not.”

“But far more ink is spilled discussing what Daniels is supposed to do with those texts and images: give copies to Cohen and destroy the originals.”

“Now the strategy starts to make sense. This dispute isn’t about the affair: it’s about those pictures or texts. As viewers of Daniels’ 60 Minutes interview surely noticed, the only question Daniels refused to answer was about whether she’s got more evidence of the affair. Avenatti suggested the answer is yes: he tweeted a photo of a DVD inside a safe.”

Kim Jung Un Makes Surprise Trip to China

March 26, 2018 at 12:50 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Kim Jong Un made a surprise visit to Beijing on his first known trip outside North Korea since taking power in 2011,” Bloomberg reports.

“The unannounced visit is the latest in series of diplomatic power plays in Asia as U.S. President Donald Trump’s battle to lower the U.S.’s trade deficit becomes entangled with his effort to get Kim to give up his nuclear weapons.”


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2018 House Ratings Shift Towards Democrats

March 26, 2018 at 12:46 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

With the Cook Political Report shifting Pennsylvania’s 6th congressional district from Toss-Up to Likely Democrat, there are now 8 current Republican-held seats rated Lean-Likely Democrat and another 21 Republican-held seats rate Toss-Ups.

Trump’s Russia Paradox

March 26, 2018 at 11:07 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Jonathan Swan: “Trump’s red line on Russia is Vladimir Putin. The president is loathe to criticize him by name or call him out in one-on-one conversations. But he has taken some tough steps against Russia that his predecessor didn’t. An example: sending lethal arms to Ukraine.”

“It’s part of the Trump paradox. He still believes the U.S. and Russia have plenty of shared interests and wants to mend the relationship. He also thinks the only way to do this is by building a warm personal relationship with Putin. But this dual-track strategy — be nice personally and tough administratively — becomes more fantastical every time Trump authorizes a harsh action against the Kremlin.”

“Today’s actions — expelling the Russian diplomats – make sense when you bear this in mind.”

Trump Met with Cohen Before Stormy Daniels Interview

March 26, 2018 at 10:49 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

The night before 60 Minutes aired its interview with Stormy Daniels, President Trump had dinner with Michael Cohen, his longtime personal attorney, CBS News reports.

Scott Looks Ready to Announce Senate Bid

March 26, 2018 at 10:30 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Florida Gov. Rick Scott (R) is set to make a “major announcement” on April 9 amid long-running rumors he will run for U.S. Senate, Politico reports.

An Insider’s Look at Jimmy Carter

March 26, 2018 at 10:13 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Out next month: President Carter: The White House Years by Stuart E. Eizenstat.

“Famous for the legal pads he took to every meeting, Eizenstat now draws on more than 7500 pages of notes and 350 interviews of all the major figures of the time.”

Democrats Would Need Huge Wave to Win House

March 26, 2018 at 10:01 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Brennan Center report finds that to win a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives, Democrats “would need a tremendous electoral wave not seen in more than 40 years to overcome Republican advantages from gerrymandered districts in key states.”

“The report projects that a 10 percentage point national margin would gain 21 seats for Democrats — still shy of the 23 or 24 needed to claim a House majority. An 11-point margin is projected to gain 28 seats for Democrats, but they haven’t achieved such a large midterm victory since a nearly 14 point margin gained them 49 seats in 1974.”

Related on the podcast: Will a Blue Wave Turn Into a Tsunami?

Stormy Daniels Gets Best ’60 Minutes’ Ratings In a Decade

March 26, 2018 at 9:57 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Stormy Daniels’ 60 Minutes interview with Anderson Cooper looks to be the newsmagazine’s best since Steve Kroft’s interview with Barack and Michelle Obama in November of 2008, shortly after he was elected president, according to the Hollywood Reporter.

Bonus Quote of the Day

March 26, 2018 at 9:55 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Most of us should be in jail for the things we do. We just haven’t been caught. No one’s gone after us.”

— West Virginia GOP county chairwoman Becky Deitch, quoted by Politico, explaining why she supports Don Blankenship’s (R) U.S. Senate bid even though he went to prison for the deaths of 29 coal miners.

Hawaii Democrats Look Ready to Oust Ige as Governor

March 26, 2018 at 9:38 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Honolulu Star-Advertiser poll finds Rep. Colleen Hanabusa (D-HI) leading Gov. David Ige (D) in a Democratic gubernatorial primary by 20 points, 47% to 27% with Clayton Hee (D) at 11%.

How Gun Control Marches Are Like Vietnam War Protests

March 26, 2018 at 9:22 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

James Hohmann: “A key reason the protests against the war in Vietnam were so much more potent than against the war in Iraq is that there was a draft back then.”

“Millions of young people lived in fear that they — or someone they loved — would have their number called, and they’d be shipped off against their will to the rice paddies and jungles of a faraway land for a cause they felt was unjust and futile. From 1964 to 1973, the U.S. military conscripted 2.2 million men — boys, really — out of an eligible pool of 27 million. This helped fuel the mass movement against the war.”

“Young people today aren’t worried about being drafted to fight Kim Jong Un in North Korea. But many are palpably concerned that they or someone they know could get shot at school. High-profile incidents, culminating with last month’s shooting in Parkland, Fla., have shaken many middle-class kids, who would not otherwise be inclined to activism, out of their suburban comfort zones.”

“The March for Our Lives was so big on Saturday because the fears are so personal.”

Trump Expels 60 Russians for Poisoning of Ex-Spy

March 26, 2018 at 9:05 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“President Trump ordered the expulsion of 60 Russians from the United States on Monday, including 12 people identified as Russian intelligence officers who have been stationed at the United Nations in New York, in response to Russia’s alleged poisoning of a former Russian spy in Britain,” the New York Times reports.

“The expulsion order, announced by administration officials, also closes the Russian consulate in Seattle. The Russians and their families have seven days to leave the United States.”

“The expulsions are the toughest action taken against the Kremlin by President Trump, who has been criticized for not being firm enough with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia.”

Brown Holds Double-Digit Lead In Ohio

March 26, 2018 at 8:12 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new SurveyUSA poll in Ohio finds Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) leading possible challenger Jim Renacci (R) by 14 points, 52% to 38%.

In the gubernatorial race, Richard Cordray (D) and Dennis Kucinich (D) are tied in the primary battle to oppose presumptive GOP nominee Mike DeWine (R). In general election match ups, DeWine leads Cordray, 47% to 39%, and tops Kucinich 51% to 38%.

Stormy Daniels Gets a ‘Cease and Desist’ Letter

March 26, 2018 at 7:53 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The lawyer for Michael Cohen, President Trump’s personal attorney, sent adult film star Stormy Daniels a cease and desist letter late Sunday following her interview with 60 Minutes where she spoke about her alleged affair with Trump and claimed she faced threats to her safety,” Fox News reports.

Why Evangelicals Are Sticking with Trump

March 26, 2018 at 7:45 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Monkey Cage: “Why are white Christians sticking so closely to Trump, despite these claims of sexual indiscretions? And why are religious individuals and groups that previously decried sexual impropriety among political leaders suddenly willing to give Trump a ‘mulligan’ on his infidelity?”

“Our new study points to a different answer than others have offered. Voters’ religious tenets aren’t actually what’s behind Trump support; rather, it’s Christian nationalism — their view of the United States as a fundamentally Christian nation.”

GOP Senators Fuel Justice Kennedy Retirement Talk

March 26, 2018 at 7:29 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Senate Republicans are privately saying they hope Justice Kennedy announces his retirement in the coming months, before the fall midterm elections, arguing the move would give Republicans something to rally their base as they work to maintain control of the Senate,” The Hill reports.

“While Kennedy, 81, has not directly signaled his plans for retirement, at least one senator has predicted it could come over the summer. Others maintain that confirming a conservative successor to Kennedy, who was nominated by Ronald Reagan in 1988, would be easier while Republicans control the Senate.”

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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