Playbook: “Congress will need another stopgap spending bill on Feb. 8, because there is no chance the House will have an immigration deal by then, even if the Senate does. Then Congress would pass another stopgap until March — just before the ultimate expiration of DACA.”
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Even White Women Are Abandoning Trump
CNN: “While 2020 polling in 2018 is of relatively limited value, a deeper dive into potential Trump head-to-head matchups with Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, former Vice President Joe Biden and talk show host Oprah Winfrey reveals a major problem for Trump as he seeks to build a winning coalition in 2020: Women — across virtually every age, education and racial range — have moved against him in major numbers.”
“Biden holds an eye-popping 36-point edge over Trump among women, while Sanders leads Trump by 30 and Oprah bests him by 29. That’s a very different result than in the 2016 election, when Hillary Clinton beat Trump by 13 points among women, according to exit polling. Orders of magnitude different.”
Trump Finally Makes It to Davos
New York Times: “By any measure, he made a lot of money, the kid from Queens, maybe not as much as he boasted, but a fortune. And yet never accepted, never respected, he remained on the outside pressing his nose against the window of the club of elites he both revered and resented.”
“So when President Trump arrives in this snowy, mountaintop resort where financial titans mingle with heads of state in an annual saturnalia of capitalism, it may feel like a moment of vindication. Never invited when he was merely a businessman, Mr. Trump will arrive on Thursday as leader of the world’s last superpower, commanding attention if not admiration. Whatever else, he cannot be ignored now.”
Cruz Holds Single-Digit Lead In Texas
A new Public Policy Polling survey finds that Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) is leading challenger Beto O’Rourke by 8 points, 45% to 37%. Eighteen percent of voters remain undecided.
Chart of the Day
When it comes to potential government shutdowns, the public views Republicans as more responsible.
Source: Data from ABC News/Washington Post surveys, obtained from searches of the iPOLL databank provided by the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research at Cornell University.
Thanks to Peter K. Enns, Executive Director of the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research and Associate Professor of Government, Cornell University.
Justice Dept. Seeks to Influence Census Questions
“A request by the Justice Department to add a citizenship question to the 2020 Census could shift the nation’s balance of political power from cities to more rural communities over the next decade and give Republicans a new advantage drawing electoral boundaries,” the Washington Post reports.
“Population numbers produced by the census are used in many ways, notably to draw political districts and distribute government funds across the country. Adding questions to the decennial survey is usually a controversial and difficult process because of the potential to affect both of those functions — either by suppressing census participation or by creating new ways to define populations.”
“All of it has prompted advocates for Hispanic communities to accuse the Justice Department of wanting to produce a less accurate count in 2020.”
Most Think Trump Should Testify Under Oath
A new CNN poll finds that 78% of Americans think President Trump should testify under oath if asked to by special counsel Robert Mueller. That includes a 59% majority of Republicans, and 75% of independents.
No One Wants Kasich’s Endorsement In Ohio
“In the Republican primary for Ohio governor, no one apparently wants Gov. John Kasich’s (R) endorsement — including the candidate who has it,” the Cincinnati Enquirer reports.
“Lt. Gov. Mary Taylor (R) told a large group of Clermont County Republicans during her interview for their endorsement last Wednesday that Kasich had endorsed Ohio Attorney General Mike DeWine and his running mate, Ohio Secretary of State Jon Husted… But Kasich had endorsed Taylor, his running mate in 2006 and 2010.”
“Taylor was responding to a question about how she separated herself from the governor in a conservative county where that separation could make a difference.”
Quote of the Day
“I believe Donald Trump is a good man. He did everything wrong as a candidate and he won, and I don’t understand it. Other than I think God put him there.”
— Evangelical leader Franklin Graham, in an interview with CNN.
Is There Something Wrong with Democracy?
After 200 years of expansion, democracy’s growth has stalled. A handful of once-safe democracies like Venezuela and Hungary are backsliding into authoritarianism. And even established Western democracies are looking shaky as voters lose faith in democratic institutions and norms.
The New York Times explains the trend in an excellent new video.
‘Hastert Rule’ Is Real Obstacle to Dreamers
Walter Shapiro: “When it comes to protecting the Dreamers, Schumer was in a situation akin to a drunk who lost his watch in a dark alley but was searching for it on the main street because ‘the light is better here.’ The Democrats had leverage in the Senate because of the filibuster, but the House has always been the problem on immigration.”
“Actually, the House would not be such an obstacle if a compromise immigration bill could ever get to the floor for a vote. But the Republicans are slavish devotees to the Hastert Rule — a disgraceful tradition named after a disgraced former House speaker, Denny Hastert.”
“As long as Ryan will not bring any legislation to the floor that does not have majority support in the GOP caucus, the Dreamers could be held hostage by outrageous demands of House Republicans.”
Ignore the Post-Shutdown Chatter
Stu Rothenberg: “Why? Because the shutdown was never a big deal politically. As long as it didn’t drag on for weeks and months, the shutdown was always more of an opportunity for feigned outrage, finger-pointing and media hype than political realignment.”
“So, while you should keep your eye on immigration as a potentially big midterm issue, don’t get too caught up in dissecting the brief government shutdown. It was a skirmish, not a major war.”
Tillerson Hangs On – For Now
Politico: “Diplomatic insiders say Tillerson’s staying power may due be to his stubborn personality — along with the sense of pride that comes from being a former corporate CEO. That he hasn’t been fired could also reflect the political reality for Trump that losing his secretary of state so quickly would be an embarrassment — and that replacing Tillerson would be an unwanted headache.”
“Anything is possible in a Trump administration that has seen numerous high-level departures, of course. And critics warn that a shadow hangs over Tillerson that deepens confusion overseas about U.S. foreign policy. Foreign diplomats see Tillerson as a weak figure because his views are often out of sync with Trump’s. He’s also alienated many of the diplomats who work for him and are worried about his ambitious plan to downsize and restructure the State Department.”
Zinke Says Florida’s ‘Coastal Currents’ Are Different
Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke defended his surprise decision to exempt Florida waters from the Trump administration’s push for new offshore drilling, telling CNN that the state’s coastline is unique.
Said Zinke: “The coastal currents are different, the layout of where the geology is.”
“Critics have called his decision to exempt Florida’s waters from the Trump administration’s plan for new US offshore oil drilling political favoritism to benefit Republican Gov. Rick Scott. It came just days after the proposal for new drilling off most of the US coastline was announced.”
Trump Gives Schumer Ultimatum
President Trump issued an ultimatum, telling Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) he risks failing to secure a legislative fix for the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program if he reneges on his offer to fund Trump’s proposed border wall, the Washington Examiner reports.
Said Trump: “Cryin’ Chuck Schumer fully understands, especially after his humiliating defeat, that if there is no Wall, there is no DACA.”
Alabama Moves to End Special Elections for Senate
The Alabama House voted 67-31 to end special elections for U.S. Senate appointments, the Montgomery Advertiser reports.
Flynn Kept FBI Interview Concealed from White House
“A year ago today, Donald Trump’s newly sworn–in national security adviser, Michael Flynn, met privately in his West Wing office with FBI investigators interested in his communications with Russia’s ambassador, without a lawyer or the knowledge of the president and other top White House officials,” NBC News reports.
“Flynn’s FBI interview on Jan. 24, 2017, set in motion an extraordinary sequence of events unparalleled for the first year of a U.S. presidency. A national security adviser was fired after 24 days on the job, an acting attorney general was fired ten days after the president took office, an FBI director was allegedly pressured by the president to let go an investigation into the ousted national security adviser, and then eventually fired.”
Immigration Talks Quickly Hit a Wall
“Senators crashing on a two-week deadline to come up with an immigration plan are already sparring over funding for President Donald Trump’s border wall, what qualifies as border security — even what the scope of the negotiations are,” Politico reports.
“It was an inauspicious start Tuesday to the bipartisan effort to break the months-long impasse over Dreamers and the budget that crescendoed with last weekend’s government shutdown. That crisis ended quickly, but Congress could be back in almost the same spot in two weeks absent a deal that can get 60 votes. The path to 60, though, looks rocky indeed.”
“An initial gang of six senators has casually doubled, but some members aren’t deeply versed in immigration policy. The group’s leaders say their plan is by far the most developed proposal that can attract Democrats and Republicans, but conservatives with Trump’s ear say the administration has no interest negotiating off their bill.”
