John Cassidy: “Even if the Republican conferees can reach an agreement on these provisions, there are two explosive non-tax issues that need to be resolved: the fate of the individual mandate to purchase health insurance, and the legal protections afforded to people who were brought to this country as undocumented immigrants when they were children—the “Dreamers.” Senate Republican leaders, in their drive to get to fifty-one votes, made pledges regarding these issues to two key senators: Susan Collins, of Maine, who helped defeat the G.O.P. effort to repeal Obamacare; and Jeff Flake, of Arizona, who is a fierce critic of President Trump.”

“At this stage, it is by no means clear that the G.O.P. leaders will be able to deliver on the pledges they made to Collins and Flake, which are already coming under fire from some ultra-conservatives in the House… Getting the members of the Freedom Caucus and the likes of Collins and Flake to agree on anything won’t be easy, and, for procedural reasons, the members of the conference committee won’t have much freedom to maneuver.”

Important: Speaker Paul Ryan’s (R-WI) office said that Ryan “is not part of a deal to get Obamacare fixes passed before the end of the year,” according to The Hill.

A new Quinnipiac poll finds American voters disapprove of the Republican tax plan 53% to 29%. By a 61% to 34% margin, voters say the plan benefits the wealthy at the expense of the middle class.

Meanwhile, President Trump’s approval rate is 35% to 58% and voters think he’s unfit to be president by a 56% to 40% margin.

Said pollster Tim Malloy: “Deeply unpopular and manifestly unfit for the job. That’s the harsh assessment of President Trump, whose tax plan is considered built for the rich at the expense of the rest.”

Bloomberg: “Some of the biggest losers under the Republican tax overhaul include upper-middle class families in high-tax areas like New York City, graduate students, government workers and public school teachers.”

“The one thing they have in common? They’re mostly Democrats.”

Playbook: “The government shuts down on Friday. Meadows — the leader of a bloc of more than 30 conservatives — says he does not like the GOP leadership plan. Democrats have no intent to help Republican leaders pass a stop gap measure. And the first serious talks between principals — Democratic and Republican leaders and President Donald Trump — is Thursday, the day before the funding deadline.”

“House conservatives threatened to derail a key tax vote on Monday in an attempt to win more influence over the GOP’s spending strategy, just four days before the deadline to fund the government. In a dramatic political stunt, more than a dozen members of the House Freedom Caucus withheld their support for a crucial procedural vote on the GOP’s tax bill, threatening an embarrassing blow to GOP leadership,” Politico reports.

“The conservatives eventually relented, approving what had been thought to be a formality — a motion to appoint negotiators to hammer out a final tax bill with the Senate. But the frenzy on the House floor underscored the divisions within the GOP over a spending strategy this month, and that the Republicans’ march toward overhauling the tax code — which has proceeded with relatively little drama so far — could get caught up in the process.”

Playbook: “This is a good reminder: The Freedom Caucus, when it’s unified, can control the outcome on the House floor.”