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Silence from the GOP Deficit Hawks

September 28, 2017 at 8:06 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

New York Times: “For years, Republican lawmakers lamented the soaring national debt, pressing for spending cuts and clinging to the mantle of fiscal responsibility. But last week, Senate Republicans hammered out a deal to allow for as much as $1.5 trillion in tax cuts, betting that supercharged growth will make up for lost revenue, a potentially dubious prospect.”

“This month, the majority of Republicans in the House and the Senate voted to raise the debt limit without doing anything to rein in spending.”

“Republican lawmakers are pushing to increase military spending by tens of billions of dollars, topping even Mr. Trump’s request for a beefed-up military… And as Congress mulls large tax cuts, the tabs for Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria keep rising.”

Associated Press: How do you pay for an estimated $5.8 trillion tax cut?

Why Trump Took on NFL Players

September 28, 2017 at 8:01 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Time: “It was a remarkable thing for a President to devote so much energy to attacking athletes for peacefully exercising their First Amendment rights. But the spat over sports was… a move straight from Trump’s political playbook.”

“He spotted a wedge issue that pits his rural, conservative white base against both wealthy black athletes and liberal elites who scold the NFL for everything from racist team logos to soft-pedaling the risks of head trauma.”

The GOP’s Nightmare Scenario

September 28, 2017 at 7:24 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Mike Allen: “Some conservative Republicans worry about a ‘nightmare scenario’ for the party: no health care repeal, no tax reform — and the party’s top two accomplishments of this Congress are a ‘bailout’ for insurance companies (fixes to the Affordable Care Act), and ‘amnesty’ (Dreamer legislation).”

“That would depress Republicans and excite Democrats — the surest formula for the GOP to blow its majorities.”


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Ryan Blames the Senate for Stalled Agenda

September 28, 2017 at 7:19 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Speaker Paul Ryan “said it was ‘extremely frustrating’ that the Republican majority in the Senate had been unable to push through pieces of the GOP agenda that have passed in the House,” Politico reports.

“Equipped with graphs highlighting the disparity between the number of bills passed by the House and the number that have stalled in the Senate, Ryan (R-WI) aired his grievances during an interview on Fox News. He cited the upper chamber’s inability to convert on the Republican Party’s major goals thus far during the Trump administration.”

GOP Faces an Insurrection

September 28, 2017 at 7:12 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

New York Times: “Republicans are confronting an insurrection on the right that is angry enough to imperil their grip on Congress, and senior party strategists have concluded that the conservative base now loathes its leaders in Washington the same way it detested President Barack Obama… Mr. Strange’s demise, senior party strategists and conservative activists said Wednesday, makes it likelier that Republican incumbents in the House and Senate will face serious primary challenges in 2018, fueled by anger at the party’s apparent ineptitude at wielding power in Washington.”

“Republicans increasingly worry that their base’s contempt for Mr. McConnell is more potent than its love for Mr. Trump. Mr. McConnell could be an anchor around incumbents in the same fashion as Representative Nancy Pelosi, the House Democratic leader, who is routinely used to undermine Democratic candidates.”

Politico: Bannon’s next move: Repeat Alabama.

Trump Skeptical of His Own Tax Plan

September 28, 2017 at 7:10 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“On Monday, there were some tense moments for Republicans at both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue, as word got out Trump wasn’t thrilled with the framework,” sources tell Jonathan Swan.

“Trump wanted to propose an even lower corporate rate. It’s The Art of the Deal: Don’t open the bidding with the number you ultimately want — 20% (the figure announced yesterday), down from 35%. Open with an extreme bid and work back. Trump wanted to propose 15%.”

“Trump was also attuned to the political risks of raising the bottom rate from 10% to 12%, while cutting the top individual rate. (That would shift the pitch to a zero rate with the doubling of the standard deduction, and leave room for a higher top rate. Yesterday’s plan could drop the top rate for individuals to 35% from 39.6%.)”

“On Monday, Republicans on the Hill were genuinely uneasy, and thought there was a chance POTUS wouldn’t sign off.”

GOP May Try to Pass Smaller Tax Cut Package

September 28, 2017 at 7:03 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Playbook: “If Congress can’t squeeze through a big tax reform package this year, there’s already talk among some about passing a smaller package of tax cuts before the end of 2017, with the promise of trying to complete a larger reform effort in 2018. This would be a way for Republicans to say they gave the tax relief they promised. With health care reform far off, tax is the ball game for Republicans as they head into the 2018 election. There is optimism — some would call it exuberance — that Republicans will be able to get a large-scale tax package through in the 36 legislative days before the year’s up.”

For members: Why Tax Reform Isn’t Going Anywhere

Twitter Was Used By Russia More Than Facebook

September 27, 2017 at 8:41 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

New York Times: “For three weeks, a harsh spotlight has been trained on Facebook over its disclosure that Russians used fake pages and ads, designed to look like the work of American activists, to spread inflammatory messages during and since the presidential campaign.”

“But there is evidence that Twitter may have been used even more extensively than Facebook in the Russian influence campaign last year. In addition to Russia-linked Twitter accounts that posed as Americans, the platform was also used for large-scale automated messaging, using ‘bot’ accounts to spread false stories and promote news articles about emails from Democratic operatives that had been obtained by Russian hackers.”

Pruitt Took Expensive Charter Flights

September 27, 2017 at 8:21 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt “has taken at least four noncommercial and military flights since mid-February, costing taxpayers more than $58,000 to fly him to various parts of the country,” the Washington Post reports.

The GOP Identity Crisis

September 27, 2017 at 7:15 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Rich Lowry: “The Republican Party can’t pass Obamacare repeal but it can nominate Roy Moore.”

“This is the state of the GOP in a nutshell. It is a party locked in mortal combat between an establishment that is ineffectual and unimaginative and a populist wing that is ineffectual and inflamed. It is rare for a governing coalition to have a bitter factional fight—usually the party out of power deploys the circular firing squads — although, on the other hand, this particular coalition isn’t doing much governing.”

“By the hard numbers, Republicans are in robust good health. They have unified control of the federal government and the most governorships and state legislative seats since the 1920s. Conservatives control the Supreme Court. Yet, Trump’s ascendance created an identity crisis in the party that hasn’t been resolved, and the hope it could be papered over with legislative accomplishments and signing ceremonies has come a cropper.”

Why Tax Reform Isn’t Going Anywhere

September 27, 2017 at 5:55 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

The reason tax reform is so difficult is that changing the tax code creates winners and losers. And the distribution of losers is rarely optimized politically for a plan to pass Congress.

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California Moves Presidential Primary to March 2020

September 27, 2017 at 5:32 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Backing an effort for California to claim a bigger share of the attention from presidential candidates, Gov. Jerry Brown has signed a bill moving the state’s primary elections to early March,” the Los Angeles Times reports.

“Brown’s decision, announced without fanfare on Wednesday, means the state will hold its presidential primary on March 3, 2020. It’s a reversal from a decision he and Democratic lawmakers made in 2011 to push the state’s primary elections back until June, after years of trying — and failing — to entice major candidates to bring their campaigns to California instead of smaller, more rural states.”

Roy Moore Only Makes Trump Stronger

September 27, 2017 at 2:55 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Frank Rich: “As the news of Moore’s victory hit last night, the Times tweeted that the results had delivered “a blow to President Trump.” Nothing could be further from the truth. Both of the GOP primary candidates were far to the right, and both were full-throated Trump supporters. Yes, Trump, acting impulsively on sloppy political intelligence, had endorsed the loser, Strange, but the Moore victory only adds to Trump’s power over the GOP.”

“Moore was a Trumpist before Trump was: a nativist, homophobic, law-disdaining, white supremacist, theocratic Dixie judge — a Bible-thumping regional variant on Joe Arpaio. He will be a vocal Trump ally in trying to drive what’s left of the GOP Establishment in Washington out of power.”

Americans Say Trump Is ‘Not Fit to Serve’

September 27, 2017 at 2:50 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Quinnipiac poll finds that American voters believe President Trump is not “fit to serve as president,” by a 56% to 42% margin. They are embarrassed to have him as president by a 51% to 27% margin.

Trump’s approval rating is a dismal, 36% to 57%.

Said pollster Tim Malloy: “A divider, responsible for the deepening chasm of racial discord. That is the inescapable characterization of President Trump from voters who see race relations deteriorating on his watch.”

Trump Says He’s Not Happy with Tom Price

September 27, 2017 at 1:20 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

President Trump refused to rule out the possibility of firing Health and Human Services Secretary Tom Price, saying he’s “not happy” with his use of a private plane, The Hill reports.

Said Trump: “I’m looking into it. I’m not happy about it.”

Extra Bonus Quote of the Day

September 27, 2017 at 12:12 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“I thought they were voting for libertarian Republicans. But after some soul-searching, I realized when they voted for Rand and Ron [Paul] and me in these primaries, they weren’t voting for libertarian ideas. They were voting for the craziest son of a bitch in the race. And Donald Trump won best in class.”

— Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY), quoted by the Washington Examiner., explaining what motivates Tea Party voters.

Kushner Registered to Vote as a Female

September 27, 2017 at 12:03 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Jared Kushner is registered as a female voter in New York,” The Hill reports.

“Registration records show that when Kushner, who is married to first daughter Ivanka Ivanka, registered to vote in 2009, he apparently checked a box classifying his gender as a female.”

“Prior to 2009, his New Jersey voter registration noted his gender as ‘unknown.'”

Trump Infuriated After Backing Loser

September 27, 2017 at 11:58 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Returning from a high-dollar fundraiser in Manhattan on Tuesday evening, an infuriated President Trump watched aboard Air Force One as Fox News called the Alabama Senate primary for Roy Moore against Trump’s favored candidate, Luther Strange,” CNN reports.

“What ensued was a barrage of angry venting at his political team and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, who had consolidated establishment GOP support behind Strange.”

“He went to bed ’embarrassed and pissed’ following the election loss, according to a person familiar with his mindset. Trump, multiple sources said, is furious with McConnell, and feels outdone by his former aide Bannon.”

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Balanced Ticket: A balanced ticket is a paring of political party candidates designed to appeal to a broad swathe of the electorate.

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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