Out next week: The Doomsday Machine: Confessions of a Nuclear War Planner by Daniel Ellsberg.
‘Donald Trump Is a Madman’
A New York Daily News editorial:
After his latest spasm of deranged tweets, only those completely under his spell can deny what growing numbers of Americans have long suspected: The President of the United States is profoundly unstable. He is mad. He is, by any honest layman’s definition, mentally unwell and viciously lashing out.
Some might say we are just suffering through the umpteenth canny, calculated presidential eruption designed to distract the nation from special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation, or perhaps from unpopular legislation working its way through Congress.
Quite possible. But Occam’s razor, and the sheer strangeness of Trump’s behavior, leads us to conclude that we are witnessing signs of mania.
Brooks Says Moore Accuser Is a Liar
Rep. Mo Brooks (R-AL) said that a woman who accused Roy Moore (R) of sexually assaulting her when she was 16 is “clearly a liar,” CNN reports.
Said Brooks: “What you have is the mainstream leftwing socialist Democrat news media trying to distort the evidence to cause people to reach the conclusion that Roy Moore engaged in unlawful conduct with a minor and my analysis of the evidence is that is not the case.”
How the GOP Tax Bill Might Still Be Derailed
This piece is only available to Political Wire members.
Republicans got a big win when the Senate Budget Committee approved their tax plan on a party-line vote. But the fragile deal brokered to win the vote of Sen. Bob Corker (R-TN) already shows signs of backfiring.
Corker was offered the idea of a “fiscal trigger” which would automatically raise taxes in case the rosy revenue projections never happened and federal deficit ballooned beyond current forecasts. Sen. James Lankford (R-OK) also interested expressed interest in the idea.
No details were released but it’s already causing grumbling among other Republican senators:
- Sen. Dean Heller (R-NV) told NBC News that he doesn’t support the concept.
- Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) told Bloomberg it was “well-intentioned” but unnecessary and bad for economic growth.
- Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) told the Wall Street Journal, “I don’t think it would look very good to have a bill to cut taxes that also signals to the world that we’re just automatically going to increase taxes.”
- Sen. John Kennnedy (R-LA) told the New York Times, “I’m not too keen on automatic tax increases. I’m just not too excited about this idea of automatically tying our hands.”
- Business groups such as the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the Koch brothers-backed Americans for Prosperity and Grover Norquist’s Americans for Tax Reform also rejected the concept.
The worry over a trigger is that the promised job creation and economic growth would never occur if businesses felt there was a chance taxes could be automatically hiked in the future.
Perhaps even more important, the Wall Street Journal suggests the trigger concept could bust the budget reconciliation vehicle that would allow the Senate to pass a bill with just 50 votes.
One potential problem: whether that creates a new snag that runs afoul of Senate procedures that allow for Republicans to pass tax legislation on a simple majority vote. At issue is whether the odds of triggering automatic tax increases are identical to the odds of triggering automatic tax cuts. If so, that could amount to a policy that would neither add nor subtract from tax revenue, a violation of the Senate’s arcane budget rules.
That alone would kill the idea of a fiscal trigger.
It’s hard to predict what will happen since we still don’t have details of the deal promised Corker. It’s also still not clear whether concerned senators would actually vote against the bill if it includes the trigger concept.
But unless this is ironed out quickly, it’s hard to see the bill coming to a vote on the Senate floor this week.
GOP Tax Cuts Less Popular Than Past Tax Hikes
A FiveThirtyEight review of polling finds that the Republican tax plan is actually less popular than the Clinton tax hike in 1993.
“Basically, none of these major tax cuts were net unpopular, as the current GOP bill is. Instead, the current Republican plan’s polling numbers look more similar to those of past tax hikes.”
Trump Son Will Meet Investigators In Closed Door Session
“Donald Trump Jr. has agreed to meet with the House Intelligence Committee as soon as next week, giving lawmakers their first opportunity to question President Trump’s eldest son over his contacts with Russians during the campaign season,” CNN reports.
It Could All Come Down to John McCain
New York Times: “After sinking his party’s hopes of repealing the Affordable Care Act this year with a dramatic thumbs-down, the fate of a tax overhaul may now sit in the hands of the Republican from Arizona. In recent days, Mr. McCain has been fairly tight-lipped about his views on the tax proposal speeding through the Senate, saying he sees some problems with the existing bill but is waiting for a final plan before making a decision. Asked about what concerned him about the Senate tax bill this week, Mr. McCain replied tersely: ‘A lot of things.’”
“Even those who know Mr. McCain best are unsure how he will vote, but if history is any guide, Republicans have reason to worry. Mr. McCain has voted against big tax cuts before, including two that passed under another Republican president: George W. Bush.”
Trump’s Tweet Blew Up the GOP’s Strategy
Playbook: “Republicans had a game plan. Then the president tweeted about Schumer and Pelosi, they pulled out of the meeting and their strategy was blown up. This is the second fiscal negotiation in which Republicans’ well-laid plans were blown up.”
“What the congressional leadership tells us: Chances for a government shutdown are skyrocketing at the moment.”
Blankenship Declares Senate Bid In West Virginia
Former Massey Energy chief executive officer Don Blankenship (R) plans to run for U.S. Senate seat held by Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV), WCHS reports.
Blankenship served a one-year sentence in prison for “conspiring to willfully violate mine safety standards.”
Republicans Own the Government Shutdown Brand
This piece is only available to Political Wire members.
The empty chairs flanking President Trump during yesterday’s Roosevelt Room photo op marked the beginning of his public relations effort to blame a likely government shutdown on Democrats.
Trump made his point clear: “If that happens, I would absolutely blame the Democrats.”
Aside from the fact that Trump would never sit Democratic lawmakers directly at his side, the staged event only made the president look as isolated as he should be feeling. His stunt won’t work.
If there’s a government shutdown, Republicans will be blamed for three reasons:
- Trump has a historically low approval rate and is very weak politically.
- After 8 years of blocking President Obama at every turn, Republicans have earned a reputation for never compromising.
- Democrats are withholding their support for a funding bill in return for two very popular things: protecting the Dreamers and reauthorizing a health care program for children.
It makes no sense politically for Republicans to let the government shut down next week. But if it does, they’ll get most of the blame.
General Dies After Drinking Poison in Courtroom
“The wartime commander of Bosnian Croat forces, Slobodan Praljak, died after he drank poison seconds after United Nations judges turned down his appeal against a 20-year sentence for war crimes against Bosnian Muslims,” Reuters reports.
Quote of the Day
“What you did to me when I was 14-years old should be revolting to every person of good morals. But now you are attacking my honesty and integrity. Where does your immorality end?”
— Leigh Corfmann, in an open letter to Alabama U.S. Senate candidate Roy Moore (R), published by the Birminghan News.
A Very Fragile Deal Allowed Tax Bill to Advance
“A key concession that helped clear Republican tax legislation for a Senate vote as early as Thursday is drawing sharp opposition from conservative groups and some lawmakers, signaling that GOP leaders still face challenges in achieving a major legislative victory before year’s end,” Bloomberg reports.
“The Senate Budget Committee approved the bill on a party-line vote of 12-11 Tuesday, but only after Sen. Bob Corker (R-TN) said he bargained for adding a controversial provision: a so-called revenue trigger that would impose tax increases if the tax bill’s cuts raise the federal deficit. The amendment has sparked condemnation from other Republicans, despite a lack of detail about how the provision would work.”
James Hohmann: “The challenge for Senate GOP leaders, who have such a small margin for error, is that two of their holdouts want to make the tax giveaway more generous, but another half dozen or so Republicans are uneasy with how much it already adds to the debt. These contradictory demands complicate negotiations and will force McConnell to decide who he needs to placate most.”
Ron Johnson Feels No Loyalty to GOP Leaders
Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) “watched angrily last fall as his fellow Republicans gave up on his reelection campaign, convinced he was doomed and that their dollars and hours would be better spent elsewhere. A year later, Johnson is still in the Senate but also a key holdout vote in the Republican effort to overhaul the tax code — and those political calculations, along with the ill will they bred, are coming back to haunt Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and his fellow heads of the GOP,” the Washington Post reports.
“Johnson surprised party leaders this month when he said he would vote against the Senate version of the GOP tax plan, saying it favors corporations over other businesses. To vote for the bill, he is asking for a large-scale restructuring that could add more than $100 billion in benefits for certain businesses.”
“Republican leaders, who probably can afford to lose a maximum of only two GOP votes if they hope to move their measure through the Senate, are working to win over Johnson with a mixture of cajoling and concessions. But as the leaders negotiate, they’re working with a senator who feels little obligation to repay any party favors.”
Trump Shares Inflammatory Anti-Muslim Videos
“President Trump shared videos supposedly portraying Muslims committing acts of violence on Twitter early Wednesday morning, images that are likely to fuel anti-Islam sentiments popular among the president’s political base in the United States,” the New York Times reports.
“Mr. Trump retweeted the video posts from an ultranationalist British party leader, Jayda Fransen, who has previously been charged in the United Kingdom with ‘religious aggravated harassment,’ according to news reports.”
The videos were titled: “Muslim migrant beats up Dutch boy on crutches!” “Muslim Destroys a Statue of Virgin Mary!” and “Islamist mob pushes teenage boy off roof and beats him to death!”
Moore Regains Lead In Alabama
A new JMC Analytics poll in Alabama finds Roy Moore (R) leading Doug Jones (D) in the U.S. Senate race, 49% to 44%, with write-in candidates getting another 5%.
Key takeaway: “Allegations of sexual misconduct against Roy Moore have not materially impacted the race.”
Big Majority of Millennials Want a Third Party
A new NBC News/GenForward poll finds a strong majority of millennials — 71% — say the Republican and Democratic parties do such a poor job of representing the American people that a third major party is needed.
“Sixty-three percent of millennials disapprove of the way President Trump is handling his job as president. But millennials also hold a variety of political institutions in poor regard, and 65% think the country is on the wrong track overall.”
Democrats Missed Their Opportunity
Amy Walter: “We are reportedly at a ‘watershed’ moment on the issue of sexual harassment. Women, emboldened by the Harvey Weinstein revelations, have come out of the shadows of shame and stigma to tell their own stories of harassment and assault. It’s also been a time of ‘reckoning’ for Democrats who once excused or defended President Bill Clinton over accusations of abuse and harassment. From an electoral standpoint, this new focus on empowering and energizing women voters should be an opportunity for Democrats.”
“In Alabama, Democrats have a chance to steal away a bright-red Senate seat thanks to assault accusations against Republican Roy Moore. It’s also an opportunity for them to prove to voters that the party demands the highest standards of conduct from its representatives in Congress. An opportunity to show that Democrats won’t put party over doing the right thing. Yet, I have been struck by the lack of ‘watershed-level’ response to Democrats’ handling of allegations against Sen. Al Franken and Rep. John Conyers, two members of their own party. Instead of meeting the moment, Democrats have missed it.”
