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Obamacare Repeal Would Give Big Tax Cut to Wealthy

December 4, 2016 at 9:12 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“More than 20 million Americans could lose health insurance from the repeal of Obamacare. But not everybody would suffer. And among those who stand to gain are the richest people in America,” the Huffington Post reports.

“That’s because Obamacare didn’t just change insurance arrangements. It also raised taxes on corporations and individuals. Repealing the law would mean repealing those taxes, with significant benefits going to millionaires and multimillionaires. President-elect Donald Trump might even be one of them.”

Huntsman In Late Running for Secretary of State

December 4, 2016 at 9:08 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Associated Press: “According to two people close to the transition, Trump is moving away from two of the front-runners for the job, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney, the 2012 GOP nominee. Giuliani’s international business ties and public campaigning for the job are said to have rankled Trump. And while Trump has met twice with Romney, he’s said to be aware of the risks of angering his supporters by tapping a Republican who was among his fiercest critics.”

“Former CIA director David Petraeus is still in the mix, though both people close to the transition said Trump’s prolonged decision-making process has left the door open to other options.”

“One of the sources said Trump was open to expanding his short list of secretary of State prospects. Among the possibilities: Jon Huntsman, a former Republican Utah governor who also served as the ambassador to China and speaks Mandarin.”

SNL Mocks Trump’s Twitter Habit

December 4, 2016 at 9:00 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Of course Trump was watching and tweeted: “Just tried watching Saturday Night Live – unwatchable! Totally biased, not funny and the Baldwin impersonation just can’t get any worse. Sad!”

The Hill: Alec Baldwin promises to stop Trump impersonation if he releases his tax returns.


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Trump May Not Propose Budget This Year

December 4, 2016 at 8:57 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Stan Collender: “The Trump administration is seriously thinking about not submitting a budget to Congress next year.”

“Although the Congressional Budget Act requires the president to submit the fiscal 2018 budget to Congress between January 2 and February 6, Trump could easily say that it was the responsibility of the outgoing Obama administration to comply with the law before the new president was sworn in on January 20.”

“But while the new president not sending a budget to Congress might not be illegal, it would clearly be unprecedented.”

Recount Dropped In Pennsylvania

December 4, 2016 at 8:45 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

The Green Party has dropped its bid for a statewide recount of votes cast in Pennsylvania during the presidential election, according to court documents.

Wall Street Journal: “Recounts will still proceed in a handful of Pennsylvania precincts, but it is far from the statewide recount that Ms. Stein initially was hoping for. She is also pushing recounts in Wisconsin and Michigan after a prominent computer scientist laid out a case that the election results may have been hacked. Legal challenges have also been filed in state and federal court to halt those recount efforts as well.”

Branstad May Be Tapped as China Ambassador

December 3, 2016 at 1:10 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad (R), a longtime friend of Chinese President Xi Jinping, is the frontrunner for the crucial post of U.S. ambassador to China, Bloomberg reports.

“A decision may follow meetings between Branstad and members of President-elect Donald Trump’s transition team in New York this week.”

Keith Ellison Offers to Quit Congress to Lead DNC

December 3, 2016 at 12:13 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

New York Times: “As the gathering began, Howard Dean, a former committee chairman who had been Mr. Ellison’s most prominent rival, announced that he was withdrawing his bid. But before making that announcement via video recording, Mr. Dean argued that the committee must be “rebuilt from the ground up” and that only a full-time chairman could accomplish that task.”

“More than two hours later, as the forum came to a close, Mr. Ellison offered an unexpected response. He revealed that he was considering resigning his seat in Congress, in answer to those on the committee who want the next chairman to focus exclusively on remaking a party shut out of power in Washington and many state capitals.”

Ivanka May Play Big Role in the White House

December 3, 2016 at 12:11 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

New York Times: “When Nancy Pelosi, the minority leader of the House of Representatives, called Donald Trump shortly after the Nov. 8 election, they talked about domestic policy and infrastructure. But when Ms. Pelosi raised the specific subject of women’s issues, the president-elect did something unexpected: He handed the phone over to another person in the room — his 35-year-old daughter, Ivanka.”

Petraeus Gets a Tryout

December 3, 2016 at 12:01 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“David Petraeus’s performance on a Sunday talk show is shaping up as a high-stakes test of how he’d handle mounting concerns about his prospective nomination to be secretary of state,” Politico reports.

“Trump’s team will closely review Petraeus’s appearance on ABC’s ‘This Week with George Stephanopoulos’ to see how he handles questions about his past that are bogging down his prospects for nomination and could prevent his confirmation, said the people with knowledge of the process.”

What Is Bob Gates Doing at Trump Tower?

December 3, 2016 at 11:58 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Playbook: “Bob Gates didn’t think much of Donald Trump during the campaign. He penned an op-ed blasting the candidate as unfit for office. But for the last two days, Trump’s inner circle has met with and consulted Gates, one of the few true bipartisan wise men still around. On Friday, Trump himself spoke to Gates. We don’t expect Gates will take a job in the administration. But crazier things have happened. Gates’ book is called Duty, and service is his kryptonite. Whatever happens, Gates has been in Trump Tower for two days in a row, and the next president’s inner circle is clearly relying on him for critical advice — and that itself is noteworthy.”

Why Did Trump Win?

December 3, 2016 at 9:40 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

The following post for members is from professors Andy Tanenbaum and Christopher Bates who write at the excellent Electoral-Vote.com.

It Was the Millennials

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Trump Cabinet Picks Could Avoid Big Tax Bill

December 2, 2016 at 10:35 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“President-elect Donald Trump’s ultra-wealthy Cabinet nominees will be able to avoid paying millions of dollars in taxes in the coming weeks when they sell some of their holdings to avoid conflicts of interest in their new positions,” the Washington Post reports.

“The tax advantage will allow Trump officials, forced by ethics laws to sell certain assets, to skip the weighty tax bills they would otherwise owe on the profits from selling stock and other holdings. The benefit is one of the more subtle ways that the millionaires and billionaires of Trump’s White House, which already will be the wealthiest administration in modern American history, could benefit financially from their transition into the nation’s halls of power.”

Trump Moves to Stop Recounts In 3 States

December 2, 2016 at 10:29 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

President-elect Donald Trump and his allies “have filed separate legal challenges in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in a suddenly robust effort to stop the presidential election recount efforts there,” the New York Times reports.

“None of the challenges immediately derailed the recounts in those states, but they promised to complicate them with more legal wrangling by Mr. Trump, groups supportive of him, state officials and Jill Stein, the Green Party presidential candidate.”

Wall Street Journal: “The legal maneuvering may mean the future of the recounts will be decided in state and federal courts in the coming days. All three states are facing a Dec. 13 federal deadline to resolve any lingering disputes about the outcome before the vote of the Electoral College on Dec. 19.”

GOP Plans ‘Repeal and Delay’ for Health Law

December 2, 2016 at 10:27 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Republicans in Congress plan to move almost immediately next month to repeal the Affordable Care Act, as President-elect Donald Trump promised. But they also are likely to delay the effective date so that they have several years to phase out President Obama’s signature achievement,” the New York Times reports.

“This emerging ‘repeal and delay’ strategy, which Speaker Paul D. Ryan discussed this week with Vice President-elect Mike Pence, underscores a growing recognition that replacing the health care law will be technically complicated and could be politically explosive.”

Palin Blasts Trump Over Deal to Save Indiana Jobs

December 2, 2016 at 5:21 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Sarah Palin called Donald Trump’s deal to save roughly 1,000 jobs at a Carrier plant in Indiana “crony capitalism.”

Wrote Palin: “When government steps in arbitrarily with individual subsidies, favoring one business over others, it sets inconsistent, unfair, illogical precedent.”

She added: “Republicans oppose this, remember? Instead, we support competition on a level playing field, remember? Because we know special interest crony capitalism is one big fail.”

Trump Risks China Rift After Call with Taiwan’s President

December 2, 2016 at 4:56 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Donald Trump risks opening up a major diplomatic dispute with China before he has even been inaugurated after speaking on the phone on Friday with Tsai Ying-wen, the president of Taiwan,” the Financial Times reports.

“The telephone call, confirmed by three people, is believed to be the first between a US president or president-elect and a leader of Taiwan since diplomatic relations between the two were cut in 1979.”

“Although it is not clear if the Trump transition team intended the conversation to signal a broader change in US policy towards Taiwan, the call is likely to infuriate Beijing which regards the island as a renegade province.”

New York Times: “The White House was not told about Mr. Trump’s call until after it happened…  But the potential fallout from the conversation was significant.”

If the Polls Are Off, the Forecasts Will Be Off

December 2, 2016 at 4:41 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

Drew Linzer plotted the polling error in state polls for each candidate in the presidential race. As the two charts below clearly show, the state polls dramatically underestimated Donald Trump’s vote share.

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Sometimes Stuff Just Happens

December 2, 2016 at 4:40 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Jonathan Chait: “Consider how the world looked eight years ago. The Republicans lost power amid having let Osama bin Laden and his followers escape in Afghanistan, launched a failed war on the basis of misleading intelligence, managed a scandal-ridden administration stuffed with hacks, handed off an economy plunging into the worst crisis since the Great Depression, and had its outgoing president’s approval ratings bottoming out in the 20s. Barack Obama leaves office with a growing economy throwing off wage gains up and down the income ladder, and with a president whose approval rating has risen into the upper 50s. Some conservative intellectuals tried to grapple with their party’s governing failure in the Bush years, but their mental exertions wound up having no bearing at all on the circumstances that brought their party back to power. Sometimes there is no moral, just a bunch of stuff that happens.”

“The party that needs to search its soul about whether it has the capacity to govern competently is not the one out of power. And what should concern Democrats is not whether they’ll get back in power but what will be left of the country when they do.”

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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