Sen. Pat Toomey (R-PA) “again refused to say whether he would vote for Donald Trump, making him the only vulnerable Republican senator to keep his constituents in the dark on where he stands on the issue,” NBC News reports.
Said Toomey: “I don’t think my constituents care that much how one person is going to vote.”
Associated Press: “Premiums will go up sharply next year under President Barack Obama’s health care law, and many consumers will be down to just one insurer, the administration confirmed Monday. That’s sure to stoke another ‘Obamacare’ controversy days before a presidential election. Before taxpayer-provided subsidies, premiums for a midlevel benchmark plan will increase an average of 25 percent across the 39 states served by the federally run online market, according to a report from the Department of Health and Human Services. Some states will see much bigger jumps, others less.”
However, the Huffington Post reports the law’s financial assistance “will protect millions of lower-income families from these premium increases, and others can find relief by switching to different plans next year to save money.”
David Frum: “Gestural politics are just ways of evading responsibility. ‘Don’t blame me, I voted for McMullin.’ But choices are judged by their consequences, and the consequences here are stark: If not Hillary, then Trump. If not Trump, then Hillary. Since it can’t be Trump, it must be Hillary. You understand why people might evade that unwelcome reality. But you didn’t get where you are by evading realities. You face them, you meet them, you make the best of them. You’ll hope for the best, but at least you’ll know you did all you could to prevent the worst.”
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Cook Political Report: “History shows that races in the Toss Up column never split down the middle; one party tends to win the lion’s share of them. Since 1998, no party has won less than 67 percent of the seats in Toss Up. While the 2016 election has broken every political science rule and trend, we’d be surprised if this becomes one of them.”
“As such, we are increasing the range of expected Democratic pick ups to five to seven seats. This means that we feel that the prospect that Democrats will have at least 51 seats is greater than the odds of a tied Senate, or of Republicans somehow holding their majority.”
Stuart Rothenberg: “Nathan Gonzales of the Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report and David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report continue to show Republicans near or over the 218 seats they need to retain House control when they each count safe or solid GOP seats and those likely to be won.”
“Two weeks can be a lifetime in politics, but it remains unlikely that Democrats will win back the House. There simply are too few takeover opportunities for them. On the other hand, the size of the Republican majority is sure to be cut, making for an obvious headache for House leaders next year. GOP losses of 12 to 20 seats would not be surprising.”
For members: A Wave May Be Forming
New York Times: “Democrats in the state call it a long shot, but some say they believe she has a chance; Republicans say it will be close but are confident that Mr. Trump will triumph. Political consultants who have both Republican and Democratic clients, and people who study Texas politics, say regardless of Mr. Trump’s narrow lead, he will take the state.”
The HuffPost Pollster average shows Trump leading in Texas by five points, 47% to 42%.
“From polling to early voting trends to TV ad spending to ground game, Donald Trump’s Florida fortunes are beginning to look so bleak that some Republicans are steeling themselves for what could be the equivalent of a ‘landslide’ loss in the nation’s biggest battleground state,” Politico reports.
“Trump has trailed Hillary Clinton in 10 of the 11 public polls conducted in October — according to Politico’s Battleground States polling average, Clinton has a 3.4 point lead. Even private surveys conducted by Republican-leaning groups show Trump’s in trouble in Florida, where a loss would end his White House hopes.”
McClatchy: “Donald Trump’s prospects in Florida are starting to slip away.”
“The Michigan Republican Party isn’t throwing a party for activists and elected officials on election night this year, while Michigan Democrats are planning a big bash at the MGM Grand casino in Detroit,” the Detroit News reports.
“The two major political parties usually host competing events to serve as the base camp for the news media, political pundits and activists to watch election results roll in on projector screens inside a convention center and give their candidates a platform for victory and concession speeches.”
“But the state Republican Party is taking this year off, citing the cost and the fact there isn’t a statewide race at the top of ticket or special connection to GOP presidential candidate Donald Trump or his running mate, Indiana Gov. Mike Pence.”
A new NBC News-Survey Monkey poll finds Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by five points, 46% to 41%, with Gary Johnson at 7% and Jill Stein at 3%.
Key findings: 57% of Republican voters see a lasting fracture in the Republican Party and 63% of Republicans trust Trump more than Speaker Paul Ryan to lead their party.
The ABC News tracking poll shows Clinton leading by 12-points, 50% to 38%.
“Hillary Clinton and her allies have an animating aim in the final 14 days of the 2016 contest – drive up the score so dramatically that claims by Donald Trump of Democratic vote-rigging will be rendered inconsequential thanks to the margin of victory,” Politico reports.
“And if their final bombardment of campaign activity drags down-ballot Democrats across the finish line and sweeps proponents of Trump’s alt-right ideology off the political table, all the better.”
Wired: “Tonight, the Trump campaign is kicking off a show that will air on the candidate’s Facebook page every night at 6:30pm ET via Facebook Live from the campaign war room at Trump Tower. The show will be hosted by Boris Epshteyn, a senior adviser to the campaign, Tomi Lahren, a conservative commentator for Glen Beck’s TheBlaze, and Cliff Sims, another Trump adviser. In tonight’s inaugural episode they will interview Trump campaign manager KellyAnne Conway and adviser Jason Miller.”
“The series, which will stream Trump’s rallies directly each night and feature pre-and post-event commentary, comes on the heels of the campaign’s debate night Facebook Live last week, which brought in more than 9 million views.”
According to Business Insider, Lahren accused Bill and Hillary Clinton of murder in an interview today.
Here are the latest state polls from the presidential race:
North Carolina: Clinton 47%, Trump 46%, Johnson 4% (Monmouth)
North Carolina: Clinton 47%, Trump 44%, Johnson 4% (PPP)
North Carolina: Clinton 42%, Trump 41%, Johnson 8% (Lucid)
Florida: Clinton 45%, Trump 39%, Johnson 6% (Lucid)
Virginia: Clinton 43%, Trump 38%, Johnson 9% (Lucid)
Georgia: Clinton 44%, Trump 40%, Johnson 8% (Lucid)
Nevada: Clinton 48%, Trump 41%, Johnson 8% (Bendixen& Amandi)
Nevada: Clinton 46%, Trump 42%, Johnson 5% (Rasmussen)
“Donald Trump’s presidential campaign is facing a fundraising scandal after a Telegraph investigation exposed how key supporters were prepared to accept illicit donations from foreign backers.”
“Senior figures involved with the Great America PAC, one of the leading ‘independent’ groups organizing television advertisements and grassroots support for the Republican nominee, sought to channel $2 million from a Chinese donor into the campaign to elect the billionaire despite laws prohibiting donations from foreigners.”
“In return, undercover reporters purporting to represent the fictitious donor were assured that he would obtain ‘influence’ if Mr Trump made it to the White House.”
“Nasty women are tough. Nasty women are smart. And nasty women vote. We nasty women are going to march our nasty feet to cast our nasty votes to get you out of our lives forever.”
— Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), quoted by the New York Times, in a devastating take down of Donald Trump.
Former Pennsylvania Attorney General Kathleen Kane (D) “was sentenced to 10 to 23 months in jail for orchestrating an illegal news leak to damage a political enemy, capping a spectacular downfall for a woman who three years ago was seen as one of the state’s fastest-rising stars,” the Philadelphia Inquirer reports.
“Her downfall began when she leaked confidential grand jury material two years ago to a newspaper in a bid to embarrass a political enemy, and then lied about her actions under oath. After a trial in August, a jury found her guilty of perjury, obstruction and other charges.”
A new CNN/ORC poll finds Hillary Clinton tops Donald Trump nationally by five points, 49% to 44%, with just 3% backing Gary Johnson and 2% behind Jill Stein.
Key finding: “Clinton now stands at 53% among voters under age 45, compared with 47% in the previous CNN/ORC poll. In fact, the only age group where Clinton currently trails Trump is among those age 50-64, who back Trump by 4 points in this poll.”
Donald Trump addressed the latest accusations of inappropriate sexual contact made against him by an adult film performer, CNN reports.
Sen. Mike Crapo (R-ID) says he’s voting for Donald Trump after earlier this month rescinding his endorsement, the AP reports.
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.
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