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Real News Was a Bigger Problem Than Fake News

December 15, 2016 at 10:08 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Matthew Yglesias: “While it’s true that fake news appears to have circulated widely in Trump-friendly corners of the internet — possibly with some assistance from the Russian government — the idea that fake news was central to the outcome of the campaign has little basis in fact. The very nature of viral fake news is that it’s mostly likely to be shared by people who are already bought into a partisan or ideological worldview, with pro-Trump fake news largely shared by Trump supporters to other Trump supporters.”

“Clinton’s campaign did have a fake news problem, but the problem was with the real news coverage — coverage that dwelled overwhelmingly on a bullshit email server scandal, devoted far fewer resources to investigating Trump’s shady foundation than Clinton’s life-saving one, largely ignored Trump’s financial conflicts of interest, and almost entirely avoided discussion of the policy stakes in the campaign.”

Lessons from the Tea Party

December 15, 2016 at 9:42 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A group of former Democratic congressional staffers share insider info on how to influence Congress to stand up to President-elect Donald Trump’s agenda.

We saw these activists take on a popular president with a mandate for change and a supermajority in Congress. We saw them organize locally and convince their own members of Congress to reject President Obama’s agenda. Their ideas were wrong, cruel, and tinged with racism – and they won…

If a small minority in the Tea Party can stop President Barack Obama, then we the majority can stop a petty tyrant named Trump.

A Cabinet Unlike Any Other

December 15, 2016 at 8:47 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

President-elect Donald Trump’s top appointments have less government experience than any in recent presidential history — by far.

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Obama Leaves Office on High Note

December 15, 2016 at 8:03 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Pew Research poll finds that 45% expect Barack Obama to be remembered as an above average or outstanding president, while 26% expect he will be viewed as average, and about as many (27%) say he’ll be seen as a below average or poor president.

“Obama fares well when compared with past presidents. Expectations for Obama’s historical record are far more positive than those of George W. Bush at the end of his term (when 57% predicted that he would be remembered as a below average or poor president), and are roughly on par with views of Bill Clinton when he left office.”

Most Don’t Think Hacking Tipped Election

December 15, 2016 at 8:01 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A Fox News poll finds that 59% of Americans said they don’t think Russian hacking made a difference in the presidential election, while 32% believe Moscow helped President-elect Donald Trump.

Democrats Open to Obamacare Replacement

December 15, 2016 at 7:42 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Politico: “Senate Democrats will never vote to repeal Obamacare. But once the deed is done, a surprising number of them say they’re open to helping Republicans replace it.”

“Interviews with more than a half-dozen Democratic senators spanning the party’s ideological spectrum suggest the Republican strategy may not be far-fetched. As harshly partisan as the entire Obamacare experience has been, replacing it could draw bipartisan backing, as long as the changes are more adjustment than overhaul.”

Putin Personally Directed Election Hacks

December 15, 2016 at 7:39 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

NBC News: “Two senior officials with direct access to the information say new intelligence shows that Putin personally directed how hacked material from Democrats was leaked and otherwise used. The intelligence came from diplomatic sources and spies working for U.S. allies… What began as a ‘vendetta’ against Hillary Clinton morphed into an effort to show corruption in American politics and to ‘split off key American allies by creating the image that [other countries] couldn’t depend on the U.S. to be a credible global leader anymore.'”

Americans Have Very Low Expectations for Trump

December 15, 2016 at 7:21 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new CBS News poll finds just 34% of Americans think President-elect Trump will be a good or very good president, and another 23% think he will be average. Thirty-six percent think he will be a poor president.

Trump ends the election year with far lower expectations than his two most recent predecessors did. In December 2008, 63% of Americans thought Barack Obama would make a good for very good president, while just 7% expected a poor performance. Less than half thought George W. Bush would make a good president in December 2000, but just 14% expected him to be a poor president.

North Carolina GOP Moves to Strip Governor of Power

December 15, 2016 at 7:11 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Republicans in the North Carolina legislature on Wednesday took the highly unusual step of moving to strip power from the incoming Democratic governor after a bitter election that extended years of fierce ideological battles in the state,” the New York Times reports.

“After calling a surprise special session, Republican lawmakers who control the General Assembly introduced measures to end the governor’s control over election boards, to require State Senate approval of the new governor’s cabinet members and to strip his power to appoint University of North Carolina trustees.”

Rick Hasen: “And here’s the kicker: any lawsuit over these alleged rules will end up before the state Supreme Court with its new Democratic majority, unless the special session itself produces a court-packing plan, and if that happens the Court itself would have to resolve a key question about its own membership.”

First Read: “It is one thing to lose a close race. It’s another thing to be bitter about it. But it’s ENTIRELY different to try to jam through changes to strip away your opponent’s powers. This is partisanship gone too far, and it’s corrosive to our democracy.”

GOP Resistance to Bolton Builds

December 15, 2016 at 7:06 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

New York Times: “The conflict has come to a head over choosing a deputy to serve under Rex W. Tillerson, the Exxon Mobil chief executive whom Mr. Trump selected this week to be secretary of state. Mr. Trump is weighing whether to choose John Bolton, a combative and strident advocate for an expansive American foreign policy who was closely aligned with Vice President Dick Cheney in the Bush administration.”

“Mr. Bolton’s nomination as deputy secretary of state would be subject to a vote in the Senate, and it is not clear whether he would survive his confirmation hearing. Senator Bob Corker, Republican of Tennessee, chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee, has said privately that he has misgivings, according to a person who has spoken with him. And Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky, another Republican on the committee, has promised to block the nomination.”

Said Paul: “There is something to be said for one of the top diplomats in the country being diplomatic.”

To Combat Trump, Democrats Ready a GOP Tactic

December 15, 2016 at 7:04 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

New York Times: “As Democrats steel themselves for the day next month when the White House door will slam on their backs, some of the country’s more liberal state attorneys general have vowed to use their power to check and balance Mr. Trump’s Washington.”

“The strategy could be as simple as mirroring the blueprint laid out by their Republican colleagues, who made something of a legal specialty of tormenting President Obama. Conservative attorneys general in states including Texas, Virginia and Florida have sued the Obama administration dozens of times, systematically battering Mr. Obama’s signature health care, environmental and immigration policies in the courts.”

Trump Picks McDaniel to Head the RNC

December 15, 2016 at 7:00 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

President-elect Donald Trump announced that Michigan GOP chairwoman Ronna Romney McDaniel is his choice to succeed incoming chief of staff Reince Priebus as chair of the Republican National Committee, Politico reports.

An Election With Many Explanations

December 14, 2016 at 3:56 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Jacob Levy: “An 80,000 vote margin in a 137 million vote election, about .05%, is susceptible of almost endless plausible explanations. The number of different factors that might well have moved that many votes is very large. So there are a lot of different true but-for explanations: but for Clinton’s failure to campaign in Wisconsin, but for the Comey letter, but for stricter voter ID laws and reductions in the numbers of polling places, but for Jill Stein, and so on, ad infinitum. A Democratic party strategist has good reason to take lots of them very seriously.”

“But anyone trying to generalize about popular beliefs or the electorate’s mood should be very wary of any of them. Grabbing a plausibly-true but-for explanation of 80,000 votes, as if it says something big and true about the whole electorate, will over-explain the outcome. An explanation that is one of the many valid ones for those 80,000 votes, and thus for the Electoral College outcome, but that implies some large shift in opinion or mood toward Trump, is a bad explanation overall.”

Arpaio Plans Briefing on Obama Birth Certificate

December 14, 2016 at 3:38 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Outgoing Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio has announced that he will hold a news conference on Thursday to present the newest revelations in his years-long investigation of President Obama’s birth certificate,” KPHO reports.

Crazy Electoral Schemes Won’t Beat Trump

December 14, 2016 at 3:29 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Jonathan Chait: “Donald Trump’s surprising (though not unforeseeable) election has provoked a wave of fear and anger among his opponents. But much of it has been misdirected into denial or despair rather than effective channels of political mobilization. The clearest symbol of this misplaced energy is the campaign to persuade members of the Electoral College to deny Donald Trump the presidency.”

“The first thing to note about this effort is that it is utterly hopeless… Second, and more important, denying Trump the presidency through an Electoral College coup is not a procedurally legitimate response… The final problem is that the campaign to prevent Trump’s election has turned the hopeless Electoral College gambit into a substitute for political organizing.”

“But there are better measures of horror at Trump and Trumpism than support for a hopeless and questionable tactic. The correct response should involve the protection and engagement of normal politics.”

Fed Begins to Raise Interest Rates

December 14, 2016 at 2:18 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The Federal Reserve said it would raise its benchmark short-term interest rate for the first time in a year and expects to lift it faster than previously projected in the coming year,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“They also indicated they see a brightening economic outlook and expect to raise short-term rates next year by another 0.75 percentage point–likely in three quarter-point moves.”

The Case for Fundamentals

December 14, 2016 at 2:00 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

A pretty good argument can be made that election forecast models that used just “fundamentals” — economic trends, incumbency, polarization of the electorate — were actually closer than those that relied on polling data. Most actually predicted a very close race and a couple gave the edge to Donald Trump.

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Romney Refused to Apologize to Trump

December 14, 2016 at 1:39 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“As President-elect Donald Trump considered Mitt Romney for secretary of state, Trump wanted one thing Romney wouldn’t give him: an apology,” CNN reports.

“Trump personally saw it in business deal terms: He would get the mea culpa he sought from Romney; Romney would get the job he covets. But Romney — who titled his own book No Apology — declined.”

“He offered forward-looking praise for Trump — starting with the President-elect’s election-night speech. But he wouldn’t go backward and retract his words from the campaign.”

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King of the Hill: The “king of the hill” is a special rule in the House of Representatives for sequencing different amendments.

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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