“Despite a push for mid-decade redistricting, a massive reserve of cash, and an unpopular opposition party, Republicans are on track to lose their House majority this November,” Cook Political Report reports.

“Unlike in 2018, the last midterm cycle when Republicans were in power, the most competitive House races are almost entirely in districts that President Donald Trump won. But, in large part due to his handling of the economy, the president is now deeply underwater and is dragging down Republican House members and candidates across these districts.”

“Democrats currently hold 215 seats, meaning they need to gain just three seats to take back the majority. But the realm of competitive and potentially competitive districts is fairly small. The most likely outcome at this point is that Democrats pick up five to 15 seats, resulting in Democrats holding 220 to 230 seats in 2027 — a fairly slim majority in modern U.S. history. That range could shift further in Democrats’ favor over the next five weeks if Republicans are unable to effectively stem the bleeding.”

The Cook Political Report is moving 15 House races, all in the Democrats’ direction.