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The Black Swan President

November 12, 2016 at 8:26 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“On Tuesday, when Donald Trump defied the polls, the Clinton machine and much of his own party establishment to become president-elect of the United States, he also became the closest thing to a black swan event we’ve ever seen in American politics: Statistically unlikely, rationalized only in hindsight—and carrying an impact that could be off the known charts,” Politico reports.

“On one hand, Trump is a pragmatic businessman with a very flexible ideology and a desire to be seen in a positive light; on the other, he’s a ruthless and often improvisational dealmaker with no allegiance to the norms and institutions that set the boundaries for traditional political power. And in 10 weeks he’ll be commander-in-chief.”

Bernie’s Revolution Strikes Back

November 12, 2016 at 8:24 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Supporters of Bernie Sanders’ failed presidential bid are seizing on Democratic disarray at the national level to launch a wave of challenges to Democratic Party leaders in the states,” Politico reports.

“The goal is to replace party officials in states where Sanders defeated Hillary Clinton during the acrimonious Democratic primary with more progressive leadership. But the challenges also represent a reckoning for state party leaders who, in many cases, tacitly supported Clinton’s bid.”

“The movement outside Washington to install new leadership — especially new leaders whose progressive credentials include support for Sanders’ presidential bid — mirrors the battle in the nation’s capital for the Democratic National Committee chairmanship in the wake of the devastating Clinton defeat and congressional elections where Democrats failed to win back either the House or the Senate. Sanders has endorsed Rep. Keith Ellison, leading House progressive and a prominent backer of his presidential campaign, to be the next permanent DNC chairman.”

Wall Street Journal: “The emerging leadership fight is being fueled by soul searching and recriminations about what went wrong in the 2016 elections and how the party should fix it.”

Infighting Hits Trump Transition

November 12, 2016 at 8:20 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The bitter infighting that plagued Donald Trump’s campaign during the Republican presidential primary is starting to spill over into his team’s efforts to establish an administration and political operation,” Politico reports.

“The tensions played a role in a Friday shakeup in which the president-elect replaced his transition team chief Chris Christie with his running mate Mike Pence. Sources familiar with the move say it was precipitated partly by clashes between Christie’s allies and rival factions on the transition team, as well as Trump’s influential son-in-law Jared Kushner.”


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Extra Bonus Quote of the Day

November 11, 2016 at 9:25 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“I’m a rich white guy, and I’m sick to my stomach thinking about it. I can’t imagine being a Muslim right now, or a woman, or an African American, a Hispanic, a handicapped person. How disenfranchised they might feel. And for anyone in those groups that voted for him, it’s just beyond my comprehension how they ignore all of that. My final conclusion is, my big fear is—we are Rome.”

— San Antonio Spurs coach Gregg Popovich, quoted by Deadspin, on the election of Donald Trump.

Democratic Turnout Was Very Weak

November 11, 2016 at 7:54 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

David Plouffe: “In Detroit, Mrs. Clinton received roughly 70,000 votes fewer than Mr. Obama did in 2012; she lost Michigan by just 12,000 votes. In Milwaukee County in Wisconsin, she received roughly 40,000 votes fewer than Mr. Obama did, and she lost the state by just 27,000. In Cuyahoga County, Ohio, turnout in majority African-American precincts was down 11 percent from four years ago.”

“It’s a reminder that presidential campaigns are driven in large part by personality, not party. Ronald Reagan, President Obama and now Mr. Trump all were able to create electoral coalitions unique to them.”

The Democrats Have Collapsed Under Obama

November 11, 2016 at 7:42 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

The Democratic party has not exactly thrived during the Barack Obama years.

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Welcome to Trumpworld

November 11, 2016 at 7:41 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Financial Times: “Donald Trump’s victory is no ordinary shock. For once the word seismic is merited. On the domestic front, it was a rejection of the US establishment personified by Hillary Clinton — in much the same way Mr Trump’s capture of the Republican nomination closed the book on the Bush era.”

“For a country seething with resentment at Washington’s oligarchic ways, there could be no more tempting piñatas than America’s leading dynasties. The Clintons and the Bushes are now over. Mr Trump’s victory also marks a sharp break from more than 70 years of American global leadership, a role he has railed against for decades. Having launched a hostile takeover of the Republican party, Mr Trump has now pulled off the same with the US federal government. Democracy’s capacity to surprise apart, Mr Trump’s win signals a disruption of almost everything the world has taken for granted about America.”

Trump Children on Transition Despite Conflicts

November 11, 2016 at 7:30 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Washington Post: “Trump, in a broad transition shake-up announced Friday, also gave his son-in-law and three eldest children official roles as transition advisers. The involvement of Trump’s adult children raises the specter of conflicts of interest, since they are poised to manage Trump’s business over the next four years.”

“Asked how the Trump children could do both, a spokesperson for the Trump Organization provided The Daily Beast with few answers.”

Trump In Bind Over Whether to ‘Lock Her Up’

November 11, 2016 at 5:37 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Los Angeles Times: “After having pledged to appoint a special prosecutor to investigate Clinton, Trump faces a dilemma: He can either drop the matter and risk angering his supporters, or charge ahead with a criminal inquiry targeting his vanquished political foe, something never before done in U.S. history.”

Bloomberg Aide Mulls NYC Mayoral Bid

November 11, 2016 at 5:35 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Kevin Sheekey, a top political adviser to former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, has told allies he is considering running against Mayor Bill de Blasio next year, the Wall Street Journal reports.

Lewandowski Quits CNN Job

November 11, 2016 at 5:31 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Corey Lewandowski, the controversial Donald Trump campaign manager turned CNN commentator, resigned from CNN on Friday afternoon.

“Lewandowski has stayed in close touch with Trump and some top Trump aides since being fired from the campaign in June. This week there has been media discussion about Lewandowski possibly taking a role in the Trump administration.”

Michael Moore on Why Trump Won

November 11, 2016 at 4:04 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Filmmaker Michael Moore was on Morning Joe for an epic discussion on the election of Donald Trump and what it means for the country.

The hosts waved off five commercial breaks to keep the conversation going.

Obama Gives Up on Pacific Trade Deal

November 11, 2016 at 3:47 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The Obama administration has given up all hope of enacting its sweeping Pacific trade agreement, a pact designed to preserve U.S. economic influence in fast-growing Asia that was buried by a wave of antitrade political sentiment that culminated with Tuesday’s presidential election,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“The failure to pass what is by far the biggest trade agreement in more than a decade is a bitter defeat for Mr. Obama, whose belated but fervent support for freer trade divided his party and complicated the campaign of Mrs. Clinton.”

Bonus Quote of the Day

November 11, 2016 at 3:44 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Four years is a long time from now. We’ll take one thing at a time, but I’m not ruling out anything.”

— Sen. Bernie Sanders, quoted by the Associated Press, on running for president in 2020 at the age of 78.

From McDonalds to Veganism to Defeat

November 11, 2016 at 3:40 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

David Maraniss: “Few Americans knew the voters who rejected Hillary Clinton better than her husband. He lived among them growing up, and then studied them with a fanatical intensity during his political rise.”

“But now, with any notion of a dynasty dead and gone, one explanation for the stunning political demise of the Clintons might be the extent to which they moved away from a middle-American sensibility into the realm of the coastal elite, from McDonald’s to veganism to put it in symbolic terms, making it harder for Hillary to bridge the nation’s yawning social divide. This rendered her vulnerable even to the most unlikely opponent, a wealthy Manhattan real estate developer who had nothing in common with many of his voters except his uncanny ability to speak their language of discontent.”

Trump Open to Keeping Parts of Obamacare

November 11, 2016 at 3:34 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

President-elect Donald Trump told the Wall Street Journal “that, after conferring with President Barack Obama, he would consider leaving in place certain parts of the Affordable Care Act, an indication of possible compromise after a campaign in which he pledged repeatedly to repeal the 2010 health law.”

Graham Suggests Cruz for the Supreme Court

November 11, 2016 at 2:08 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Sen. Lindsey Graham told WYFF that President-elect Donald Trump should nominate Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) to the Supreme Court.

Said Graham: “I’m here to tell my Democratic colleagues that I voted for Obama’s nominees. I expect them to give Trump’s nominees a fair shake. He won this election. He will pick a conservative. I would put Ted Cruz on that list… There are some really strong people in there. And there is no stronger constitutional conservative than Ted Cruz.”

Clinton Campaign Blames Comey Letters for Loss

November 11, 2016 at 2:02 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Navin Nayak, the head of Clinton’s opinion research division, sent an email to senior campaign staff last night sharing initial takeaways from the bruising election loss.

Wrote Nayak: “We believe that we lost this election in the last week. Comey’s letter in the last 11 days of the election both helped depress our turnout and also drove away some of our critical support among college-educated white voters — particularly in the suburbs.”

She added: “We also think Comey’s 2nd letter, which was intended to absolve Sec. Clinton, actually helped to bolster Trump’s turnout.”

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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