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State Poll Roundup: Friday

November 4, 2016 at 1:21 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Here are the latest state polls from the presidential race:

New Hampshire: Clinton 44%, Trump 44%, Johnson 5% (UMass Lowell)

Iowa: Trump 44%, Clinton 41%, Johnson 5% (RABA Research)

Virginia: Clinton 45%, Trump 38%, Johnson 5% (Roanoke College)

Georgia: Trump 48%, Clinton 46%, Johnson 4% (Landmark)

Missouri: Trump 52%, Clinton 41% (PPP)

New Hampshire: Clinton 48%, Trump 43% (PPP)

Nevada: Clinton 48%, Trump 45% (PPP)

Wisconsin: Clinton 48%, Trump 41% (PPP)

Pennsylvania: Clinton 48%, Trump 44% (PPP)

North Carolina: Clinton 49%, Trump 47% (PPP)

Wisconsin: Clinton 44%, Trump 38%, Johnson 7% (Loras College)

Iowa: Trump 44%, Clinton 41%, Johnson 4% (Emerson)

Michigan: Clinton 42%, Trump 38% (EPIC-MRA)

New Mexico: Clinton 46%, Trump 43%, Johnson 7% (Zia Poll)

Pennsylvania: Clinton 46%, Trump 46%, Johnson 2% (Harper)

Arizona: Trump 47%, Clinton 39%, Johnson 4% (Data Orbital)

Georgia: Trump 49%, Clinton 45%, Johnson 6% (Opinion Savvy)

Michigan: Clinton 44%, Trump 44%, Johnson 4% (Strategic National)

Colorado: Clinton 45%, Trump 44%, Johnson 5% (Trafalgar)

Virginia: Clinton 48%, Trump 43%, Johnson 1% (PPP)

Michigan: Clinton 46%, Trump 41%, Johnson 5% (PPP)

Colorado: Clinton 48%, Trump 43%, Johnson 4% (PPP)

Bayh Now Trails In Indiana

November 4, 2016 at 12:08 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new WTHR/HPI Indiana Poll finds Todd Young (R) inched ahead of Evan Bayh (D) in the hotly contested U.S. Senate race by 5-points, 46% to 41%.

Guilty Verdicts Reached In Bridgegate Trial

November 4, 2016 at 11:37 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Bridget Kelly and Bill Baroni were found guilty over a bizarre scheme to close lanes to the George Washington Bridge as punishment against a mayor who declined to endorse Gov. Chris Christie’s (R) re-election, the Newark Star Ledger reports.


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Megyn Kelly Accused Roger Ailes of Sexual Assault

November 4, 2016 at 10:43 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Fox News anchor Megyn Kelly alleges in her new memoir that Roger Ailes tried to sexually assault her in his office and hinted that she would be fired when she “pushed him away.”

Radar Online: “Kelly claims he started to harass her in the summer of 2005, a few months after she was hired as a legal correspondent in Fox’s Washington bureau. She writes that she was informed by her managing editor that she’d ‘captured the attention of Mr. Ailes’ and she was summoned to the first of a series of meetings in his Manhattan office. ‘Roger began pushing the limits,’ she alleges. ‘There was a pattern to his behavior. I would be called into Roger’s office, he would shut the door, and over the next hour or two, he would engage in a kind of cat-and-mouse game with me.'”

Why Trumpism Will Continue After the Election

November 4, 2016 at 10:32 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

New Republic: “There’s been much dispute about whether Trumpism is a passing fad or will have staying power. Trump himself is a senior citizen and has, at best, one more presidential run in him. It’s not clear whether any of his children have the political charisma needed to take over the movement, or whether other politicians (Tom Cotton? Ted Cruz?) would be prepared to remake themselves in Trump’s image.”

“But there is ample reason to think that Trumpism will continue to be a powerful force in the Republican Party simply because Stephen Bannon will be around to promote it. Over the last two years, Bannon has proven himself to be a formidable figure on the right, with both the means and the ambition to alter the political landscape.”

The Final Surprise May Be a Boring Election Night

November 4, 2016 at 8:49 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Playbook: “Here’s one theory bouncing around the reporter and political campaign consultant world: Despite the recent tightening of the race, election night could be super boring. If Nevada political guru Jon Ralston is right — and he usually is — Hillary Clinton has all but won that state. If she takes Nevada, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Virginia — all states where she seems to have a lead, or is building one through early voting — Donald Trump can win Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado and New Hampshire and still lose.”

What Did Giuliani Know?

November 4, 2016 at 8:43 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

The Daily Beast notes that two days before FBI Director James Comey’s announcement last week about new Clinton emails found, Rudy Giuliani hinted at “big surprises” on Fox News:

“I think he’s got a surprise or two that you’re going to hear about in the next few days. I mean, I’m talking about some pretty big surprises. We’ve got a couple of things up our sleeve that should turn this thing around.”

Here’s the video:

FBI Fear of Leaks Drove Decision

November 4, 2016 at 8:37 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Reuters: “FBI Director James Comey was driven in part by a fear of leaks from within his agency when he decided to tell Congress the FBI was investigating newly discovered emails related to Hillary Clinton, law enforcement sources said on Thursday…”

“Two law enforcement sources familiar with the FBI’s New York Field Office, which initially discovered the emails, said a faction of investigators based in the office is known to be hostile to Hillary Clinton. A spokeswoman for the FBI’s New York office said she had no knowledge about this.”

Clinton’s Email Problems In Perspective

November 4, 2016 at 8:28 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

While Hillary Clinton’s use of a private email server has dominated political news coverage for months, the YouGov tracking poll on the issue has been rather consistent — and quite boring! — since early last year.

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Trump Has Been Silent In His Ads

November 4, 2016 at 8:25 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Donald Trump has shown more than 586 hours of television ads in the general election, and until now something has been missing: his voice,” the AP reports.

“There is no footage of him speaking, no archival recordings to build out his life story and no direct-to-camera appeals to voters. He doesn’t utter a word other than the legally required recording, ‘I’m Donald Trump, and I approve this message,’ at the end of his commercials.”

“That’s about to change. In one of the final ads of the race, the Republican presidential nominee will take his case to the voters, his campaign says.”

Clinton Campaign Sees Victory in 3 Key States

November 4, 2016 at 7:45 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

New York Times: “Mrs. Clinton’s campaign manager, Robby Mook, told donors on a conference call Thursday that the campaign expected to win Florida and North Carolina in large part because of Hispanic turnout. In Nevada, a third diverse battleground state, Mr. Mook said he no longer saw a path for Mr. Trump to win there.”

Feeling Anxious About the Election?

November 4, 2016 at 7:40 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Los Angeles Times: “Election stress disorder may not be well known, but it’s definitely real, and its impact should not be dismissed… Symptoms of this once-every-four-years disorder include heart palpitations, shortness of breath, sweaty palms, loss of appetite, trouble sleeping and a sinking or doomed feeling.”

“The cause? Intense concern about the outcome of the presidential election.”

Quote of the Day

November 4, 2016 at 7:23 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Trump may be a car wreck, but at least his car is pointed in right direction.  Hillary is a drunk-driver going the wrong way on the freeway.”

— Former Gov. Mike Huckabee, on Twitter.

Most Americans Disgusted Over Campaign

November 4, 2016 at 7:19 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“An overwhelming majority of voters are disgusted by the state of American politics, and many harbor doubts that either major-party nominee can unite the country after a historically ugly presidential campaign,” according to the final pre-election New York Times/CBS News Poll.

“With more than eight in 10 voters saying the campaign has left them repulsed rather than excited, the rising toxicity threatens the ultimate victor. Mrs. Clinton, the Democratic candidate, and Mr. Trump, the Republican nominee, are seen as dishonest and viewed unfavorably by a majority of voters.”

Trump Disclosures Dramatically Overstate Income

November 4, 2016 at 7:16 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

New York Times: “The records demonstrate that large portions of those numbers represent cash coming into his businesses before covering costs like mortgage payments, payroll and maintenance. After expenses, some of his businesses make a small fraction of what he reported on his disclosure forms, or actually lose money. In fact, it is virtually impossible to determine from the forms just how much he is earning in any year.”

“Mr. Trump appears to have used a provision in federal ethics laws that allows business owners to list gross revenue, as opposed to net income after expenses, on their disclosure forms. But he does not seem to have completely acknowledged that choice. Rather, he has suggested that the figures on the form represent money in his pocket.”

Clinton Inches Ahead In Tracking Poll

November 4, 2016 at 7:06 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

The ABC News-Washington Post tracking poll shows Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by  three points, 47% to 44%.

Key findings: “There’s room for change, not least because Trump continues to enjoy a 6-point advantage in strong enthusiasm among his supporters. Just 47 percent of Clinton’s supporters are strongly enthusiastic about her, compared with 53 percent of Trump’s – and, for comparison, a peak of 69 percent of Barack Obama’s by the end of the 2012 race.”

Will There Be Another Surprise?

November 4, 2016 at 7:02 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The last day of the workweek has often proved meddlesome for both Mr. Trump and Mrs. Clinton,” the New York Times reports.

“Key moments in the F.B.I.’s email investigation landed on Fridays; and a 2005 audio recording of Mr. Trump bragging about sexual assault was also revealed on a Friday.”

“The week could end quietly, or it could close with yet another in a series of wave-making afternoons.”

Russian Meddling Likely to Continue

November 4, 2016 at 6:01 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“U.S. intelligence agencies do not see Russia as capable of using cyberespionage to alter the outcome of Tuesday’s presidential election, but they have warned that Moscow may continue meddling after the voting has ended to sow doubts about the legitimacy of the result,” the Washington Post reports.

“The assessment reflects widespread concern among U.S. spy agencies that a months-long campaign by Russia to rattle the mechanisms of American democracy will probably continue after polls close on one of the most polarizing races in recent history, extending and amplifying the political turbulence.”

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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