Nate Cohn: “So here’s a simple question: Why haven’t these demographics swept Hillary Clinton to a big polling lead and a smooth glide to victory? Donald J. Trump, after all, has alienated just about every growing demographic group and every category that helped push Mr. Obama to victory.”

“The biggest reason is that demographic change was an overrated contribution to Mr. Obama’s victory, and it will help Mrs. Clinton only at the margins this year. Analysts have conflated all of the effect of higher turnout and percentage of support among nonwhite voters with demographic shifts. In truth, the turnout and support were far more powerful components.”

For members: The Obama Coalition Isn’t Coming Together — Yet

“I don’t know folks, do you think Hillary Clinton would be able to stand up here for an hour? I don’t know.”

— Donald Trump, quoted by the Daily Beast, finally breaking four days of near silence about Hillary Clinton’s health.

Josh Barro: “Obviously, it’s been a rough few weeks for Hillary Clinton, and most of the poll analysis has focused on how she has hurt herself and what she can do to improve her position.”

“But here’s the thought that’s making me nervous: What if the shift in the polls is more about Donald Trump campaigning better?”

“Specifically, what if it’s about the fact that he brought in a reasonably competent campaign manager, Kellyanne Conway, on August 17, started listening to her advice, and became somewhat less self-destructive and more on-message?”

“After a whiplash-inducing morning of mixed messages, Donald Trump on Wednesday opened a small window into some of the results from his most recent physical examination, revealing that he is overweight and takes a statin, a type of drug that lowers cholesterol,” the New York Times reports.

“Mr. Trump gave the quick synopsis on Dr. Mehmet Oz’s television show after the Republican presidential nominee’s aides had said that he would, then that he would not, broach the topic with the doctor on the show.”

“A Trump aide said that Dr. Oz, who focuses heavily on obesity, declared Mr. Trump ‘slightly overweight’ with a weight of 236 pounds (although earlier reports put his weight at 267 pounds.)”

Here are the latest state polls from the presidential race:

Ohio: Trump 48%, Clinton 43% (Bloomberg)

South Carolina: Trump 53%, Clinton 38% (Trafalgar)

Nevada: Trump 44%, Clinton 42% (Monmouth)

Florida: Trump 46%, Clinton 41%, Johnson 8%, Stein 2% (CNN/ORC)

Ohio: Trump 47%, Clinton 44%, Johnson 6%, Stein 1% (CNN/ORC)

Pennsylvania: Clinton 48%, Trump 40% (GBA Strategies)

A new Quinnipiac poll shows Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump nationally among likely voters by five points, 48% to 43%.

With third party candidates in the race, results are too close to call, with Clinton leading 41% to 39%, and Gary Johnson at 13$ and Jill Stein at 4$.

A new Economist/YouGov poll shows Clinton leading by two points, 42% to 40%.

First Read: “With less than eight until Election Day, it looks like Donald Trump will be successful in not releasing his tax returns, becoming the first presidential nominee we can remember not doing so. But it’s becoming harder and harder for him to avoid releasing them.”

“First is the news that New York’s Democratic attorney general has launched an inquiry into the Trump Foundation… Second was the Washington Post’s investigative piece noting that most of the Trump Foundation money comes from other people’s money; that Trump passes the money to other charities and takes credit for it; and that he has used that money to buy himself a gift. (“One candidate’s family foundation has saved countless lives around the world,” President Obama said on the campaign trail yesterday. “The other candidate’s foundation took money other people gave to his charity and then bought a six-foot-tall painting of himself.”) And third is a new Newsweek article detailing how Trump’s international business ties could become a significant conflict of interest if he becomes president.”

“Any conventional politician would be feeling the heat here; of course, Trump isn’t your conventional politician. But every day that goes by with Trump not releasing his taxes suggests that these is something to all of these stories.”