“Apologies to LBJ: difference between endorsing Trump and voting for Trump is difference between chicken shit and chicken shit on salad.”
— GOP strategist John Weaver, on Twitter.
How an Ultimate Insider May Still Bring Great Change
Joe Klein: “We are about to experience a radical change in American politics: a woman may well be our next President. It’s a transformation that’s been lost in the roil of the campaign. Clinton is so familiar a character that she has been disaggregated from her gender. She is the experienced candidate, the status quo candidate, the Establishment candidate; she is the awkward, slippery, morally challenged candidate.”
“All true, but she is also a woman—and women are different from men…. when you think about it, having an intellectually mature and experienced President would be a seismic shift away from the long run of ‘outsiders’ in the oval office. And guys, if you don’t believe that having a female President would be a dramatic rupture from male governance, well, your wives probably have a list of reasons why it would.”
Bonus Quote of the Day
“Nah. They don’t get out and vote. They don’t vote.”
— Former Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer (R), quoted by the Boston Globe, on whether Latino voters could help Hillary Clinton win Arizona.
Clinton Maintaining Solid National Lead
A new CNBC poll finds Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by nine points nationally, 43% to 34%.
A new Fox News poll shows Clinton up by just three points, 44% to 41%.
For comparison, the HuffPost Pollster polling average shows Clinton leading by eight points, 49% to 41%.
For members: No, the Presidential Race Isn’t Tightening
Maybe It’s Not a Change Election
“More Americans than at any time in Barack Obama’s presidency now say that things in the United States are going well, a sharp uptick in positive views and the best reviews of the country’s trajectory since January 2007,” according to the latest CNN/ORC poll.
“Overall, 54% say things in the country today are going well, 46% badly.”
How Trump Is Actively Trying to Suppress the Vote
A must-read Businessweek piece explains how Donald Trump’s campaign has “three major voter suppression operations under way” aimed at three groups: idealistic white liberals, young women, and African Americans.
On Oct. 24, Trump’s team began placing spots on select African American radio stations. In San Antonio, a young staffer showed off a South Park-style animation he’d created of Clinton delivering the “super predator” line (using audio from her original 1996 sound bite), as cartoon text popped up around her: “Hillary Thinks African Americans are Super Predators.” The animation will be delivered to certain African American voters through Facebook “dark posts”—nonpublic posts whose viewership the campaign controls so that, as Parscale puts it, “only the people we want to see it, see it.” The aim is to depress Clinton’s vote total. “We know because we’ve modeled this,” says the official. “It will dramatically affect her ability to turn these people out.”
Democrats Poised to Pick Up 10-20 House Seats
Cook Political Report: “Less than two weeks from Election Day, Democrats are on track to pick up between 10 and 20 House seats, a slight uptick in their fortunes but still well short of the 30 seats they need for the majority. Low enthusiasm for the top of the GOP ticket remains a concern for down-ballot Republicans, but Trump isn’t as much of a drag outside of well-educated suburbs, which could limit Democrats’ gains. View our full House ratings here.”
On the podcast: Can Democrats put more House seats in play?
Please Re-Elect Gerald
After a disheartening presidential campaign, we could use more political ads like this one:
How Trump Will Dominate GOP Politics After the Election
Businessweek: “Almost every public and private metric suggests Trump is headed for a loss, possibly an epic one. His frustrated demeanor on the campaign trail suggests he knows it. Yet even as he nears the end of his presidential run, his team is sowing the seeds of a new enterprise with a direct marketing effort that they insist could still shock the world on Election Day.”
“Beginning last November, then ramping up in earnest when Trump became the Republican nominee, Kushner quietly built a sprawling digital fundraising database and social media campaign that’s become the locus of his father-in-law’s presidential bid. Trump’s top advisers won’t concede the possibility of defeat, but they’re candid about the value of what they’ve built even after the returns come in—and about Trump’s desire for influence regardless of outcome.”
Quote of the Day
“Here’s a woman, she makes a speech for 15 minutes, she goes to home, goes to bed. Honestly, she has less energy than Jeb Bush. I mean it. I mean it.”
— Donald Trump, quoted by Politico, suggesting that Hillary Clinton has “low energy” like his former primary rival.
Chaffetz Is Now Back to Voting for Trump
Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R-UT) “again reversed his position on Donald Trump’s presidential candidacy on Wednesday night, saying he’d vote for the Republican nominee but wouldn’t endorse him,” Politico reports.
“Chaffetz is one of six Republican members of Congress who have recommitted to voting for Trump after yanking their support.”
Trump Supporters Warn of Revolution
New York Times: “Big crowds still mob Donald Trump when he comes to town, with fans waiting in long lines to attend his rallies, where they eagerly jeer his Democratic rival and holler happily at his message.”
“But beneath the cheering, a new emotion is taking hold among some Trump supporters as they grapple with reports predicting that he will lose the election: a dark fear about what will happen if their candidate is denied the White House. Some worry that they will be forgotten, along with their concerns and frustrations. Others believe the nation may be headed for violent conflict.”
Republicans Worry About Driving Away Women
Washington Post: “A growing number of prominent Republican women are worried that as members of their male-dominated party step up to defend Donald Trump against accusations of sexual assault, they are causing irreparable damage to the GOP’s deteriorating relationship with female voters.”
“The controversy also comes as the Republican Party continues to struggle to attract women, who make up a majority of the electorate and who have supported the Democratic presidential candidate in every election going back to 1992. President Obama won women by 11 points in 2012, and several polls show Clinton leading among women by an even bigger margin this year.”
GOP Hold on State Legislatures Could Slip
“The Republican Party’s grip on U.S. state legislatures could loosen in next month’s election as Democrats seek to link Republican candidates to the sinking fortunes of the party’s White House candidate, Donald Trump,” Reuters reports.
“The bipartisan National Conference of State Legislatures (NCSL) estimates 18 legislative chambers in 12 states could switch party control, including in Arizona, Colorado, Kentucky, Minnesota, Nevada, Washington and Wisconsin.”
Cruz Says GOP May Block Nominees Indefinitely
“In a vintage return to his confrontational style, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) indicated that Republicans could seek to block a Democratic president from filling the vacant Supreme Court seat indefinitely,” Politico reports.
Said Cruz: “There will be plenty of time for debate on that issue… There is certainly long historical precedent for a Supreme Court with fewer justices.”
Foundation Fundraisers Steered Business to Bill Clinton
“Two chief fundraisers for the Clinton Foundation pressed corporate donors to steer business opportunities to former President Bill Clinton as well, according to a hacked memo published Wednesday by WikiLeaks,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“The memo, part of a cache of emails stolen from Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton’s campaign manager, resurfaces an issue that she has had a hard time shaking: questions over the relationship between the Clintons’ charity work and their personal business.”
GOP Likely Faces Less Power Next Year
New York Times: “If the most likely scenario holds — a Hillary Clinton victory, a narrow Democratic majority in the Senate and a diminished Republican House majority — Republicans will have to make crucial and onerous decisions they are now beginning to confront.”
“Do they try to find a way to cooperate with Democrats and get something done after years of stasis in Washington, perhaps as a way to move beyond the Trump phenomenon? Or do they dig in against Democrats and the new president as a bet on a Republican comeback in the 2018 midterm elections, adopting a noncooperative strategy to recapture the Senate majority and pad their numbers in the House?”
Clinton Lead Expands to 14 Points In New Poll
A new AP-GfK poll shows Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 14 points nationally, 51% to 37%, followed by Gary Johnson at 6% and Jill Stein at 2%.
