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Trump Raises $90 Million in August

September 7, 2016 at 4:41 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Donald Trump and his joint committees raised $90 million in August, a substantial haul for a candidate late to fundraising but one that still significantly trails Hillary Clinton’s enormous summer totals,” CNN reports.

“A Trump campaign official said Wednesday the campaign had collected the $90 million despite its paltry fundraising operation. That total is expected to come largely from small-dollar donors, who have flocked to the Republican nominee thanks to his costly investment in digital fundraising tools. “

The Fight for the Senate Isn’t Over Yet

September 7, 2016 at 1:21 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Stuart Rothenberg: “Nine months ago, I thought that Democrats had a pretty easy road to a four-seat gain and a Senate majority in November. Now I’m not so sure.”

“The numbers, of course, still favor them. With 10 Republican-held Senate seats at risk this year and only a single Democratic-held seat in play, Democratic Senate gains are inevitable. But the fight for control in November remains surprisingly close, and it may not be until October or November before we know whether Democrats will gain the seats they need.”

Trump’s Ad Spending Makes No Sense

September 7, 2016 at 12:51 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

According to NBC News, Donald Trump’s campaign has narrowed his ad-spending gap with Hillary Clinton this week to just $2.8 million, $9.7 million to $6.9 million.

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State Poll Roundup: Wednesday

September 7, 2016 at 10:50 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Here are the latest state polls from the presidential race:

South Carolina: Trump 50%, Clinton 38% (First Tuesday)

Arizona: Clinton 35%, Trump 34% (Arizona Republic)

New Hampshire: Clinton 46%, Trump 41% (PPP)

Pennsylvania: Clinton 47%, Trump 42% (PPP)

Iowa: Clinton 45%, Trump 43% (PPP)

Florida: Trump 44%, Clinton 43% (PPP)

New Hampshire: Clinton 42%, Trump 37% (Emerson College)

Trump Ends Media Blacklist

September 7, 2016 at 9:50 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Donald Trump is ending his “blacklist” of media outlets,  The Hill reports.

“Trump’s presidential campaign had been denying press credential requests from the Washington Post, BuzzFeed, Univision, the Daily Beast, Politico and other news organizations over what the campaign considered unfair coverage. But starting Wednesday, the campaign will approve their credential requests.”

Clinton Holds Narrow Edge Nationally

September 7, 2016 at 9:45 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new George Washington University Battleground Poll finds Hillary Clinton just ahead of Donald Trump in the presidential race, 42% to 40%.

“The narrow race reflects a conflicted electorate in which voters are weighing many options. Poll respondents were presented with several possibilities for how they may vote in November. Roughly one-quarter of them said that they would likely vote for a third-party candidate or vote for a candidate ‘from the other political party than the one that you usually support.’ Thirteen percent said they might not vote at all, and 45 percent said they might split their tickets (vote for different parties for president and the rest of the ballot).”

For comparison, the HuffPost Pollster average shows Clinton with a five point lead nationally, 47% to 42%.

Who Is the More Secretive Candidate?

September 7, 2016 at 9:37 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Rick Klein: “In the evolving standards Donald Trump is using for disclosure, some twists have been added. ‘Let her release lease her emails and I will release my tax returns immediately,’ Trump told Bill O’Reilly on Fox, adding on to the promise that his returns would be disclosed as soon as his ‘routine audit’ is completed. And pressed by ABC’s David Muir on why he doesn’t release his own full medical records to coax Hillary Clinton into doing the same, ‘I think I will do that’ was his response.”

“If past is predictive, voters will see neither Trump’s full medical records nor his tax returns before Nov. 8. But his changing standards for what he might release, under which conditions, and when deserve their own attention and scrutiny. Yes, Clinton is known – and rightly – for secrecy. But the amount of information Trump has not provided about his own finances and personal health remain unprecedented in modern politics.”

First Read notes that the “Let her release her emails, and I’ll release my tax returns immediately” line undermines Trump’s audit argument. It implies the audit isn’t the real excuse.

Trump Now Thinks He Can Win Virginia

September 7, 2016 at 9:33 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Washington Post: “Donald Trump will spend more money this week in Virginia than anywhere else. Of the $3.5 million in advertising time he’s booked, $1.9 million will go into the commonwealth. More specifically, $1.4 million will be spent in the D.C. market.”

“This is notable because the Clinton campaign is so confident about its prospects that it has aired no ads on broadcast television in the state since Aug. 1. And the main pro-Clinton super PAC has canceled all of its reservations through the election.”

Key takeaway: “The consensus among the smartest Republican strategists is that the odds of Trump ultimately carrying Virginia are very low, unless the race breaks decisively his way nationally (which they do not believe will happen).”

Republicans Seek to Censure Obama Over Iran Payment

September 7, 2016 at 7:58 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Congressional Republicans want to censure the Obama administration for sending $400 million in ‘ransom’ to Iran on the same day as American prisoners were released – an issue they bet will play big on the campaign trail two months before election day,” the Washington Post reports.

“The move comes as new details are emerging about just how and when the Obama administration completed the transfer of $1.7 billion to settle claims related to the incomplete sale of military weapons before the Iranian Revolution in 1979.”

Data Drives Nearly Every Clinton Decision

September 7, 2016 at 7:36 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Politico: “What cities Clinton campaigns in and what states she competes in, when she emails supporters and how those emails are crafted, what doors volunteers knock on and what phone numbers they dial, who gets Facebook ads and who gets printed mailers — all those and more have Kriegel’s coding fingerprints on them.”

“To understand Kriegel’s role is to understand how Clinton has run her campaign — precise and efficient, meticulous and effective, and, yes, at times more mathematical than inspirational. Top Clinton advisers say almost no major decision is made in Brooklyn without first consulting Kriegel. He was one of her first hires and is among her highest-paid, and yet he remains virtually unknown outside the cloistered community of political number-crunchers.”

Outside GOP Groups Raise Big Money for Senate

September 7, 2016 at 7:32 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Two top outside groups designed to support Senate Republicans raised $42 million in August, a massive haul that shows the fervor with which GOP donors are training their focus – and dollars – on maintaining control of the upper chamber,” Politico reports.

Playbook: “We’ve all settled on the thought that Republicans will lose the Senate majority. But if outside groups keep pulling in tens of millions of dollars a month, the GOP can make a real play to stem the damage, or perhaps even keep the majority.”

Clinton Gets Nod from Dallas Newspaper

September 7, 2016 at 7:12 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

The Dallas Morning News endorses Hillary Clinton for president:

We don’t come to this decision easily. This newspaper has not recommended a Democrat for the nation’s highest office since before World War II — if you’re counting, that’s more than 75 years and nearly 20 elections. The party’s over-reliance on government and regulation to remedy the country’s ills is at odds with our belief in private-sector ingenuity and innovation. Our values are more about individual liberty, free markets and a strong national defense.

We’ve been critical of Clinton’s handling of certain issues in the past. But unlike Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton has experience in actual governance, a record of service and a willingness to delve into real policy.

Resume vs. resume, judgment vs. judgment, this election is no contest.

Which Way Will the Undecided Break?

September 7, 2016 at 6:51 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“A substantial bloc of Republican-leaning voters has declined so far to back either major-party candidate for president, suggesting Donald Trump has an opportunity to make the race more competitive by persuading them to return to the GOP,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“His challenge is formidable, however, since almost eight in 10 of these voters have sharply negative views of Mr. Trump and his Democratic rival, Hillary Clinton. That raises the prospect they might vote for a third-party candidate—or sit out the election.”

For members: Can Undecided Voters Help Trump Win?

Evan McMullin Accidentally Picked Running Mate

September 7, 2016 at 6:46 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Politico: “In all nine states where he has officially qualified on the presidential ballot, McMullin has listed a ‘Nathan Johnson’ as his vice presidential nominee. McMullin’s campaign won’t provide any more information about Johnson — including which of the thousands of people named Nathan Johnson the campaign is referring to — saying he is only a placeholder until McMullin names an actual running mate.”

“But in eight of the nine states, top election officials say McMullin’s campaign can’t pull Johnson’s name off the ballot, and that it’s ‘Nathan Johnson’ — not whomever McMullin eventually names as his pick for Vice President — that will appear on the ballot.”

Johnson Makes First Ad Buy In Western States

September 7, 2016 at 6:45 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“In a bid to propel his candidacy onto the presidential debate stage later this month, Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson is deploying an unusual advertising strategy to help him meet requirements for participation,” Bloomberg reports.

“The former New Mexico governor on Tuesday launched his first television ads of the 2016 campaign, almost exclusively targeting western states where libertarianism has stronger roots.”

To be included in the debates, Johnson needs to average 15% or higher in national polls.

GOP No Longer Sees Trump Costing Them Congress

September 7, 2016 at 6:43 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Even after the tumultuous Summer of Trump, Republicans still insist that he won’t doom their hopes of retaining control of Capitol Hill,” Politico reports.

“Returning to Washington after their long August recess, Republican lawmakers are cautiously optimistic that GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump can remain disciplined enough over the next two months to keep them from getting blown out — and give them a fighting chance to hold the Senate and protect their sizable House majority.”

Trump Has Long Embraced Pay-to-Play Politics

September 7, 2016 at 6:40 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

New York Times: “In the 1980s, Mr. Trump was compelled to testify under oath before New York State officials after he directed tens of thousands of dollars to the president of the New York City Council through myriad subsidiary companies to evade contribution limits. In the 1990s, the Federal Election Commission fined Mr. Trump for exceeding the annual limit on campaign contributions by $47,050, the largest violation in a single year. And in 2000, the New York State lobbying commission imposed a $250,000 fine for Mr. Trump’s failing to disclose the full extent of his lobbying of state legislators.”

Pervasive Pessimism Seen Across the Country

September 7, 2016 at 6:36 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The presidential campaign has intensified long-standing political divisions, but there is one area of broad agreement among voters in both red states and blue states — a pervasive pessimism that no matter the outcome, the election will do little to unify the country,” according to a Washington Post-SurveyMonkey survey of all 50 states.

“Americans also say they fear they are being left behind by the cultural changes that are transforming the country. Asked whether the America of today reflects their values more or less than it did in the past, large majorities of registered voters in every state say the country reflects their values less.”

“But almost hidden behind those broad findings is another striking reality of America at the end of President Obama’s tenure in the White House. Those groups that fall roughly into the coalition that helped elect Obama to successive terms are more likely — in some cases significantly so — to say the country reflects their values more than it did in the past. Obama has pushed policies and taken executive actions that have played directly to that coalition.”

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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