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Why Trump May Have an Electoral College Advantage

September 16, 2016 at 2:11 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

Much has been made of the demographic advantages, such as the growing number of Latino voters, that Hillary Clinton has in the presidential race. But she’s also got a major weakness: Current polling shows her support is less optimally distributed than Barack Obama’s was in 2008 and 2012.

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Young Voters Force Clinton Campaign Reset

September 16, 2016 at 1:38 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Hillary Clinton’s once-commanding lead among young voters has collapsed as millennials look toward third-party candidates, a development that helps explain why the presidential race has tightened substantially in recent weeks,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“Young voters are a pillar of the Democratic coalition, and the Clinton campaign is making a new effort to keep them in the fold. On Friday, First Lady Michelle Obama will campaign for Mrs. Clinton on a college campus in the battleground state of Virginia.”

“Sen. Bernie Sanders, a sensation among younger voters during the Democratic primaries, will campaign for Mrs. Clinton this weekend, and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, a liberal icon, will attend campaign events this weekend at two Ohio universities.”

For members: The Obama Coalition Isn’t Coming Together — Yet

Kennedy Won’t Stop Talking About Rival and Prostitution

September 16, 2016 at 12:59 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Louisiana State Treasurer John Kennedy said he won’t back off asking about allegations that his opponent in the U.S. Senate race was allegedly involved with prostitutes, the Baton Rouge Advocate reports.

Said Kennedy: “The most prestigious publisher in the world has alleged that he was serviced by not one, not two, not three but four prostitutes and has cheated on his wife. He says it’s a lie. I didn’t write that. Simon and Schuster did. He needs to sue them if it’s not true.”


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Trump Says Obama Was Born in the United States

September 16, 2016 at 11:39 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Donald Trump reversed himself and acknowledged the fact that President Obama was born in the United States, the AP reports.

Said Trump: “Not to mention her in the same breath but Hillary Clinton and her campaign of 2008 started the birther controversy. I finished it. I finished it. You know what I mean. President Barack Obama was born in the United States, period. Now we all want to get back to making America great again.”

Clinton Seeks to Halt Third Party Drift

September 16, 2016 at 10:59 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Hillary Clinton and her Democratic allies, unnerved by the tightening presidential race, are making a major push to dissuade disaffected voters from backing third-party candidates, and pouring more energy into Rust Belt states, where Donald Trump is gaining ground,” the New York Times reports.

“With Mrs. Clinton enduring one of the rockiest stretches of her second bid for the presidency, her campaign and affiliated Democratic groups are shifting their focus to those voters, many of them millennials, who recoil at Mr. Trump, her Republican opponent, but now favor the Libertarian nominee, Gary Johnson, or the Green Party candidate, Jill Stein.”

Senate Dysfunction Blocks Criminal Justice Reform

September 16, 2016 at 10:57 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“A major criminal-justice overhaul bill seemed destined to be the bipartisan success story of the year, consensus legislation that showed lawmakers could still rise above politics and take on a serious societal problem,” the New York Times reports.

“Then the election got in the way. With Donald J. Trump demanding ‘law and order’ and Senate Republicans divided on the wisdom of reducing federal mandatory minimum sentences, the effort that began with real promise stalled, and now its Senate authors acknowledge there is virtually no chance for action on the measure this year.”

‘This is Pure Madness’

September 16, 2016 at 8:44 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Maureen Dowd joins Chris Riback on Political Wire Conversations for a discussion on the 2016 campaign and her new book, The Year of Voting Dangerously: The Derangement of American Politics.

Listen here:

Subscribe via iTunes or RSS to get new episodes automatically downloaded to your phone. Follow @chrisriback on Twitter.

Special thanks to the Cook Political Report for sponsoring this episode!

Going Birther Again Makes No Sense for Trump

September 16, 2016 at 8:44 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

First Read: “The only way Trump addressing the Birther story makes sense is through the logic that ‘any day the campaign is about you is a good day.’ Besides that, addressing it doesn’t make sense. Either he doubles down on his past statements, which only complicates the campaign trying to woo African Americans and to seize on the ‘Deplorables’ controversy. Or he repudiates his past Birther statements, which raises the question if he has a political core. How can you beat the Birther drums for five years and then say you’re sorry 50-plus days before an election? If so, what does he believe? And what is he for?”

“One other point here: With his poll numbers improving, Trump appears to be getting a little cocky (this, Dr. Oz, criticizing the African-American pastor). As we know, Hillary Clinton can sometimes be a terrible frontrunner. Maybe Trump isn’t a good one as well.”

Rick Klein: “What matters in Donald Trump going birther again isn’t his current stance – even if one could be established as consistent, final, and coming from the candidate himself. What matters isn’t – or isn’t only – his long history with the matter, from bringing President Obama’s birth status to the public eye (that wasn’t Hillary Clinton’s doing) to his unsubstantiated claim to have sent private investigators to Hawaii. What matters is how he is still talking about it, and the obvious inferences as to why. It’s a blunt appeal to Obama hatred, including those for whom race is part of the reason to hate. Perhaps just as critically, it’s another Trump distraction – putting himself at the center of attention, and taking scrutiny away from other corners. Trump has used distraction and deflection as tools throughout the campaign. Again, he’s where he wants to be – the focus of frenzy he will surely call a media obsession.”

Trump Can Win

September 16, 2016 at 7:57 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Rich Lowry: “If you aren’t seriously contemplating the biggest black-swan event in American electoral history, you aren’t paying attention.”

“Fifteen months ago, Donald Trump was a reality-TV star with a spotty business record and a weird penchant for proclaiming he was on the verge of running for president. Now, he’s perhaps a few big breaks and a couple of sterling debate performances away from being elected 45th president of the United States.”

“And, no, stranger things haven’t happened.”

The Hardening of Hillary

September 16, 2016 at 7:53 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Todd Purdum: “For all the public grind of this campaign, for all her public presence on the world stage over the past two decades, Clinton herself has increasingly spent her days in a kind of purdah, suppressing spontaneous utterances and surrounded by loyalists whose chief role is her care and feeding. She communicates only through a veil of unyielding self-protection, surrounded by a curtain of defensiveness.”

“So nowadays, almost no one outside Clinton’s innermost circle ever sees the tender side that loyal aides and friends insist is such a palpable part of her personality, but I can attest that it is there.”

Bonus Quote of the Day

September 16, 2016 at 7:36 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“I don’t care. My facts are good. My facts are good. I don’t get enough credit for having my facts right. They’ll say I’m wrong even when I’m right.”

— Donald Trump, quoted by Politico, on being fact checked during the debates.

Reid Hits Back at Trump

September 16, 2016 at 7:27 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) “punched right back at Donald Trump for poking fun at his grisly eye injury,” Politico reports.

Said Reid: “Donald Trump can make fun of the injury that crushed the side of my face and took the sight in my right eye all he wants — I’ve dealt with tougher opponents than him. I may not be able to see out of my right eye, but with my good eye, I can see that Trump is a man who inherited his money and spent his entire life pretending like he earned it.”

Undecided Voters Are Breaking To Trump

September 16, 2016 at 7:18 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Sam Wang: “The narrowing of the race seems to be driven by a break in undecided voters toward Trump. Since early August, Donald Trump has gained about 4.0 percentage points, and is nearing his previous highs for the year. During the same period, undecided voters have decreased by a similar amount.”

“Until now, undecided voters have been running about 4 points ahead of where they were in 2012. Many of those undecideds were probably disaffected Republicans unwilling to support Trump, a radical candidate unlike any that the U.S. has seen in over 100 years. Trump is not saying a lot relative to his usual inflammatory and divisive statements. It appears that this approach is bringing home the Republican base – and increasing his favorability rating.”

Quote of the Day

September 16, 2016 at 7:14 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The media may be a dirty filter at times, but it’s the filter through which you communicate to the American people. It impedes your effectiveness if you view this as a relentlessly adversarial relationship.”

— David Axelrod, in an interview with NPR.

Is Gary Johnson a Threat to Clinton?

September 16, 2016 at 7:07 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Gary Johnson was never supposed to be a problem for Hillary Clinton… But as national and battleground polls tighten and Democrats’ hand-wringing grows more urgent, operatives both within and allied with Clinton’s political operation who are looking around to explain Trump’s new polling strength are growing increasingly wary of the former New Mexico governor,” Politico reports.

“For now, Clinton’s national team and Democrats close to them chalk up Johnson-focused concerns to classic liberal panic, especially as they think his window is closing.”

First Lady Stumps for Clinton

September 16, 2016 at 6:56 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“With virtually unmatched popularity at her back, First Lady Michelle Obama debuts on the stump for Hillary Clinton Friday, hoping to galvanize suburban voters behind a candidate she once fiercely opposed,” CNN reports.

“At a campaign rally in northern Virginia, Obama will work to convince her and her husband’s supporters that Clinton is also worthy of their votes. The rally on the campus of George Mason University is timed ahead of the commonwealth’s October 17 voter registration deadline.”

Presidential Race Is a Near Dead Heat

September 15, 2016 at 7:51 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Fox News poll finds Hillary Clinton barely edging Donald Trump in the presidential race among likely voters, 41% to 40%, with Gary Johnson at 8% and Jill Stein at 3%.

In a two-way matchup, likely voters give Trump the edge over Clinton 46% to 45%.

For members: Well, That Got Close Quickly

A Defiant Trump Refuses to Say Obama Born In U.S.

September 15, 2016 at 7:47 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Donald Trump said in an interview “that he remains unwilling to say that President Obama is born in the United States, that he is more bullish than ever on his chances to win and that he is not exploring the launch of a new media company in case he loses the race,” the Washington Post reports.

“Trump also made a far-from-subtle push — in the interview and in a letter from his doctor released Thursday — to be seen as vigorous and healthy, as his Democratic rival, Hillary Clinton, returned to the campaign trail after being treated for mild pneumonia.”

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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