Sam Wang: “The narrowing of the race seems to be driven by a break in undecided voters toward Trump. Since early August, Donald Trump has gained about 4.0 percentage points, and is nearing his previous highs for the year. During the same period, undecided voters have decreased by a similar amount.”
“Until now, undecided voters have been running about 4 points ahead of where they were in 2012. Many of those undecideds were probably disaffected Republicans unwilling to support Trump, a radical candidate unlike any that the U.S. has seen in over 100 years. Trump is not saying a lot relative to his usual inflammatory and divisive statements. It appears that this approach is bringing home the Republican base – and increasing his favorability rating.”
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