The Must-Win States for Trump and Clinton
Harry Enten: “Among the swing states, there are particular ones that Trump and Clinton need to avoid losing. If their opponent is ahead there, it’s an almost a sure sign to the candidates that they’re losing the election: For Trump, these are the light-red states (e.g., Ohio, Florida and Iowa); for Clinton, they are the light-blue states (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota and Virginia).”
Megyn Kelly Will Produce New Political Series
Fox News star Megyn Kelly will produce a new scripted series with “Fifty Shades of Grey” producer Michael De Luca following a presidential campaign trail and the embedded journalists who cover it, Variety reports.
“Verizon-owned streaming platform Go90 has ordered six half-hour episodes of the political comedy ‘Embeds.’ The series will follow five young reporters who are in way over their heads as they find themselves shaping the future of the country while experiencing raucous adventures in an unexpected world of sex, drugs, and swing states. Big-name politicians are expected to cameo throughout the series.”
Senate Will Delay Vacation to Override Obama Veto
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) said that the Senate will take up an expected veto override of legislation that lets families of 9/11 victims sue Saudi Arabia in U.S. courts before breaking for the elections, The Hill reports.
The Senate had been expected to leave town this week, but McConnell said it was “safe to say” that the Senate would be in town next week.
Photo Used In Skittles Tweet Was Taken by Refugee
Donald Trump Jr’s tweet comparing Skittles to refugees has caused a furor on social media, the BBC reports.
Now, the man who took the photo has revealed himself as a former refugee himself and said it was used without permission.
Said David Kittos: “This was not done with my permission, I don’t support his politics and I would never take his money to use it.”
Graham Says Trump Should Apologize
Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) told Bloomberg that Donald Trump’s admission last week that President Obama was born in the U.S. was “a start,” and suggested the Republican presidential nominee apologize.
Said Graham: “I would apologize. I think the whole movement was unseemly. I had a lot of distaste for it. No factual basis. I think he would be taking the high ground, but that’s up to him.”
He added: “I don’t think he did the country a service by pushing this.”
Reid Says Trump Not As Rich As He Claims
“Seeking to shake up a tight presidential race, Harry Reid declared Tuesday on the Senate floor that Donald Trump is a ‘swindler’ who is ‘not as rich as he would have us believe’ — as the Nevada Democrat moved to reprise the 2012 strategy that saw him hammer Mitt Romney repeatedly over his tax returns,” Politico reports.
Said Reid: “He was born with an inheritance but lost his daddy’s wealth … that’s why Donald Trump won’t release his tax returns. That’s certainly one of the reasons, of course: He is not worth nearly as much as he claims to be. That’s a secret he doesn’t want anyone to know. He wants everyone to think he’s this big, rich, rich man.”
State Poll Roundup: Tuesday
Four Pollsters With Same Data Had Different Results
Nate Cohn: “We decided to share our raw data with four well-respected pollsters and asked them to estimate the result of the poll themselves.”
The result? “A net five-point difference between the five measures, including our own, even though all are based on identical data. Remember: There are no sampling differences in this exercise. Everyone is coming up with a number based on the same interviews.”
Trump Used Charity to Settle Lawsuits
“Donald Trump spent more than a quarter-million dollars from his charitable foundation to settle lawsuits that involved the billionaire’s for-profit businesses,” the Washington Post reports.
“If the Internal Revenue Service were to find that Trump violated self-dealing rules, the agency could require him to pay penalty taxes or to reimburse the foundation for all the money it spent on his behalf. Trump is also facing scrutiny from the office of the New York attorney general, which is examining whether the foundation broke state charity laws.”
Trump Running Behind Where GOP Nominee Should Be
“An election forecast built by Vox and a team of political scientists projects that a generic Republican should win 50.9 percent of the two-party vote in 2016. But Donald Trump isn’t a generic Republican — and he is polling at 47.7 percent of the two-party vote, according to the Huffington Post Pollster. The difference between those numbers — 3.2 points, as of today — is what we’re calling the Trump Tax: the electoral penalty Republicans appear to be paying for nominating Trump.”
“What we appear to be seeing is a remarkable example of a major political party blowing a totally winnable national election.”
GOP Now Favored to Keep Senate
The Washington Post says Republicans are now favored to retain control of the U.S. Senate after this year’s elections.
“As of now, we list just four races as toss-ups: Indiana, Nevada, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania. Given Republicans currently have an effective 54-46 majority, Democrats would have to win three of those four toss-ups if Hillary Clinton wins the presidency — Vice President Kaine would be the tie-breaker in a 50-50 Senate — and all four if Trump wins the presidency.”
Colbert Shreds Trump for His Biggest Lie Yet
Stephen Colbert: “You don’t get to flog this issue for five years and then act like you’re correcting everybody else! We’re not crazy, we were there. We all saw you do it. Even the people who support you saw you do it, it’s why they support you!”
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One of Kaine’s Kids Backed Sanders
“As part of an appeal to millennials, Tim Kaine, the Democratic vice-presidential nominee, shared this tidbit about his three children on Monday: One of them supported Bernie Sanders over Hillary Clinton during the party’s primary season,” the Washington Post reports.
“Kaine’s disclosure came during a well-attended rally at Iowa State University in Ames, where Kaine — Clinton’s running mate for the past two months — urged young voters to rally around the Democratic ticket in November.”
Polling Averages Can Sometimes Be Misleading Too
Stuart Rothenberg: “On Election Day 2012, the RealClearPolitics polling average found incumbent President Obama “leading” Republican Mitt Romney by seven-tenths of a point – a statistical dead heat. The actual final result, an Obama victory of 3.9 points, was very different.”
“I cite these numbers not to challenge the RCP average or disparage the pollsters who got the race wrong… Still, the 2012 ‘miss’ should remind us that polling isn’t perfect and even ‘averaging,’ a reasonable strategy, can mislead. Averaging may smooth outliers, but what if one poll always seems to be an outlier, like the Los Angeles Times/USC tracking poll?”
The Six Week Election Day
Bloomberg: “Election Day starts this week. Beginning on Sept. 23, any Minnesotan can go to a local election office and complete an absentee ballot. The following Thursday, voters in neighboring Iowa have the same opportunity. Between Oct. 20-24, North Carolina, Nevada, and Florida get in the game. In Colorado, the entire election will be conducted by mail ballot. By the constitutionally mandated first Tuesday after a Monday in November, more than one-third of Americans will have already voted for president.”
“There are still battleground states that make no provision for early voting—Pennsylvania, Virginia, and New Hampshire stand out for their old-fashioned ways—but in those that do it has created a new kind of electoral arms race. Early voting is a particular gift to well-organized, well-funded campaigns, which can extend their turnout operations across as long as six weeks, locking down precise factions of the electorate in domino-like fashion, and sequence their persuasion efforts with a clear view of who has yet to vote.”
Quote of the Day
“Lester is a professional, but we’ll see what happens … By the way, Lester is a Democrat. It’s a phony system. They are all Democrats. It’s a very unfair system. I’ve worked pretty well within the system.”
— Donald Trump, in a Fox News interview, on debate moderator Lester Holt.
