“Donald Trump’s unsubstantiated claim that the election is rigged against him because of a corrupt political system may have the effect of lowering turnout among his own supporters,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“Political science research into the topic suggests that both the perception of corruption as well as negative messages about political empowerment may limit voters’ desire to participate in the political process.”
“This election is not rigged.”
— Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL), quoted by CNN.
Playbook: “There’s been a lot of chatter over the last few days about whether Ryan did the right thing by speaking out against Trump. Why is he always the scold, people have asked? His handling of Trump will be dissected plenty over the next few months. Ryan has an incredibly complicated job and has to balance the needs of 245 other Republicans, many of whom wanted cover to break with Trump. But there’s no question he’s now bearing the brunt of the decision.”
“We’re not going to play the can-he-win-the-speakership-again game. There are far too many variables at play, like a) how much Trump loses by and b) what the margin is in the House. But Trump and his allies are signaling a long fight against Ryan. Put it all together, and you come up with a pretty simple question: Why would Ryan want to become speaker again?”
Stuart Rothenberg: “It would be a mistake to call Trump’s current path to an electoral college victory narrow. It is nonexistent. Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, once part of the Trump scenario, have never been ‘in play,’ and he is not competitive in 2012 states Obama won only narrowly, such as Virginia and Colorado. Trump is more likely to lose North Carolina than win it, which would put him under 200 electoral votes.”
“Frankly, the writing has been on the wall for months about this race. You simply needed to look at the candidates, their campaign teams, the map and the voters.”
“Polls conducted since the first presidential debate last month put Donald Trump on a pace to earn a smaller percentage of the vote than any major-party nominee in at least 20 years,” Politico reports.
“In matchups that include third-party candidates, Trump is winning, on average, 39.6 percent of the vote compared to 46.2 percent for Hillary Clinton in the dozen national polls using live-telephone interviewers conducted since September 26.”
A new USA TODAY/Rock the Vote Poll of young voters, conducted by Ipsos, finds Hillary Clinton is continuing to build a lead over Donald Trump among Millennials, 68% to 20%, followed by Gary Johnson at 8%.
A new NBC News/SurveyMonkey poll shows Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump nationally by six points, 46% to 40%.
Donald Trump told ABC News that Speaker Paul Ryan does not want a President Trump because of his own political ambitions in 2020.
Said Trump: “Well, maybe not, because maybe he wants to run in four years or maybe he doesn’t know how to win.”
He added: “Well, I don’t want to be knocking Paul Ryan. I think he could be more supportive to the Republican nominee.”
“Oscar nominee Gary Busey allegedly sexually assaulted a female Apprentice employee during his time on the show, five Apprentice employees tell The Daily Beast.”
“Donald Trump knew about the incident, laughed it off, and kept Busey on his TV series, these staffers said.”
“The Michigan Republican Party ousted one of its state leaders Monday for her refusal to support presidential candidate Donald Trump, in a move that shone a brighter spotlight on party divisions over the controversial nominee,” the Detroit Free Press reports.
President Obama wants you to vote early.
A new CBS News poll shows Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump nationally by nine points, 47% to 38%, with Gary Johnson at 8%.
Just two weeks ago, Clinton’s lead was four points.
Ars Technica: “A website used to fund the campaigns of Republican senators was infected with malware that for more than six months collected donors’ personal information, including full names, addresses, and credit card data.”
Rick Hasen: “The truth is, though, that not only does zero evidence exist that this sort of fraud has taken place on any regular basis, but multiple voting simply cannot happen in any practical sense on a scale to influence a presidential election. To vote five, 10, or 15 times one would have to either register five, 10, or 15 times in different jurisdictions or with false names or go five, 10, or 15 times to polling places claiming to be someone else whose name is on the voter rolls, in the hopes that this person has not already voted and you would not get caught. And to do this on a scale for a presidential election, in a place such as Pennsylvania with millions of voters, you would need to pay tens of thousands of people, all without any way of verifying how they voted. What a stupid way to try to steal an election!”
New York Times: Officials fight Trump’s claim of a rigged vote
“Two months after she was humiliated when she delivered a plagiarized speech at the Republican National Convention in Cleveland, Melania Trump emerged from near-total silence to defend her husband during the worst stretch of his candidacy, calling his behavior toward women ‘inappropriate’ but adding, ‘We are moving on,'” the New York Times reports.
“The campaign’s decision to deploy Ms. Trump as a character witness for her embattled husband came as top aides have struggled how to respond to reports that Mr. Trump forced himself on several women and the emergence of the ‘Access Hollywood’ tape.”
Here are the latest state polls from the presidential race:
Alaska: Trump 37%, Clinton 36%, Johnson 7% (Lake Research)
Utah: Trump 30%, McMullin 29%, Clinton 28% (Rasmussen)
Nevada: Clinton 46%, Trump 44%, Johnson 7% (CNN/ORC)
North Carolina: Clinton 48%, Trump 47%, Johnson 4% (CNN/ORC)
Ohio: Trump 48%, Clinton 44%, Johsnon 4% (CNN/ORC)
Colorado: Clinton 45%, Trump 37%, Johnson 10% (Quinnipiac)
Florida: Clinton 48%, Trump 44%, Johnson 4% (Quinnipiac)
Ohio: Clinton 45%, Trump 45%, Johnson 6% (Quinnipiac)
Pennsylvania: Clinton 47%, Trump 41%, Johnson 6% (Quinnipiac)
Utah: Clinton 23%, Trump 23%, McMullin 18% (Google Consumer Surveys)
Arizona: Clinton 39%, Trump 37%, Johnson 9% (HighGround)
Donald Trump “lashed out at Republican leaders, including House Speaker Paul Ryan, who have pushed back against the GOP nominee’s message that the election is being rigged against him,” Politico reports.
Said Trump: “Of course there is large scale voter fraud happening on and before election day. Why do Republican leaders deny what is going on? So naive!”
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.