A new Gallup poll finds Sen. Ted Cruz’s favorability rating among Republicans has dropped significantly — from 59% to 43% — since his speech at the Republican National Convention in which he refused to endorse Donald Trump as the party’s nominee.
Trump Finally Pivots 107 Days Late
“Three and a half months after sealing the Republican nomination, Donald Trump pivoted to contest the general election on Thursday night, expressing regret for his past failures to ‘choose the right words’ and delivering one of the most comprehensive, on-message rationales for his candidacy to date,” Politico reports.
“Speaking from prepared remarks on the heels of another staffing shakeup, Trump positioned himself as the champion of voiceless Americans against a corrupt and incompetent elite and the leader of an inclusive movement who repeatedly condemned ‘bigotry.'”
Washington Post: “The move marked a sharp departure from Trump, who has avoided apologizing or expressing regret in more than a year of campaigning, after a seemingly endless stream of feuds and controversies.”
Clinton Foundation Will Restrict Donors If Clinton Wins
“Facing criticism for some of the donations given to his family’s philanthropy, Bill Clinton said on Thursday that the Clinton Foundation would no longer accept foreign or corporate funds should Hillary Clinton win the presidency in November,” the New York Times reports.
State Poll Roundup: Thursday
Here are the latest polls from the presidential race:
Nevada: Clinton 44%, Trump 42% (Suffolk)
Georgia: Clinton 43%, Trump 43% (Opinion Savvy)
Bonus Quote of the Day
“I think it helps us to be a little bit behind, and we are. It lights a fire under us and reminds us what we need to do to get this done.”
— Trump campaign manager Kellyanne Conway, quoted by Politico.
Burr Faces the Perfect Storm In North Carolina
“Republicans are increasingly nervous about the Senate race in North Carolina, where Senator Richard Burr finds himself at sea in a year when some party insiders say a perfect storm may be gathering for Tar Heel State Democrats,” National Review reports.
“Burr faces Deborah Ross, a former state senator, in a race that few Republicans even considered competitive several months ago. Ross was not a top recruit, entering the race only after other Democratic hopefuls passed, and Burr — the well-liked chairman of the powerful Senate Intelligence Committee — seemed to have little to worry about. But with less than three months to go until election day, Burr has barely begun campaigning, and it’s increasingly clear that his reelection is threatened by two forces beyond his control: Donald Trump and Pat McCrory, the unpopular Republican Governor who’s also up for reelection this year.”
Quote of the Day
“In that speech, I concluded with the following line: ‘If Hillary Clinton can’t give us the truth, why should we give her the presidency?’ But weeks after the end of the 2016 GOP convention, I am confronted by an inconvenient fact: Despite what I wrote in that nationally televised speech about Hillary Clinton, I may yet have to vote for her because of the epic deficiencies of my own party’s nominee.”
— GOP speechwriter Richard Cross, writing in the Baltimore Sun,
When Will McConnell and Ryan Weigh In?
First Read: “If Trump’s poll position doesn’t soon change, there will be two key GOP voices that everyone will want to hear from, especially after this campaign shakeup — House Speaker Paul Ryan and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. Those two men have the potential power to declare the presidential race over, and to say that the Republican Party’s energies and resources should be devoted to saving the GOP House and Senate majorities. We’re not saying that moment is here or even a week or two away. But it’s definitely a story to watch.”
Clinton Can Now Easily Reach 270 Electoral Votes
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “New Hampshire’s new status is no small change, since we are putting Clinton over the 270-mark in the Electoral College (273 electoral votes, to be precise) with states we have classified as Likely Democratic or Safe Democratic. Clinton had previously been at 269 in those categories. To us, this means that Trump has to find a way not just to sweep all Republican states and the remaining states classified Leans Democratic (see our map, below) but to dislodge at least one Likely or Safe Democratic state. Anything can happen over the next dozen weeks, but we wouldn’t recommend betting your children’s college funds on a Trump administration.”
Trump’s Strategy Counts on Third Party Candidates
First Read: “The reaction to the news of the latest Trump campaign shake-up has ranged from shock and disbelief to laughter… But there is one strategic way it makes sense: Team Trump views the 2016 presidential contest as a race to 40%. Under that scenario, you somehow assume that Libertarian Gary Johnson will get more than 15% of the popular vote, and that the Green Party’s Jill Stein will get more than 5%.”
“And then you make a play for the base to carry you across the finish line. It’s essentially the game plan that helped elect — and then re-elect — controversial Maine Gov. Paul LePage in 2010 and 2014. Of course, there’s a problem with this base play: If the 2016 presidential race is a contest to 40%, well, Hillary Clinton probably gets there first, especially with Trump’s percentage currently sitting in the 30s in many key states. And it’s doubtful that Johnson and Stein will get a combined 20%-plus of the vote; it will likely be half of that — if not less.”
“Down in the polls and outflanked for now in the battleground map, Trump had two ways to go: One, try to broaden his appeal by changing his message and approach. Or two, double down on everything that’s gotten him this far. Trump has chosen Door No. 2, which is something 95%-99% of political professionals wouldn’t advise.”
How Sanders Avoided Disclosing His Personal Finances
“As a Democratic presidential hopeful, Sen. Bernie Sanders vociferously argued for political transparency, especially when money was concerned,” NBC News reports.
“But when federal law required Sanders to reveal, by May 15, current details of his personal finances, his campaign lawyer asked the Federal Election Commission for a 45-day extension. On June 30, Sanders’ campaign requested a second 45-day extension.”
“Now that Sanders’ second extension has expired, spokesman Michael Briggs confirmed to the Center for Public Integrity that the senator won’t file a presidential campaign personal financial disclosure after all.”
Gardner Supports a ‘Buffoon’ for President
Sen. Cory Gardner (R-CO), who previously called Donald Trump a “buffoon,” said he’s voting for him, the Colorado Springs Gazette reports.
Said Gardner: “That’s why I’m voting Republican up and down the ticket. A Republican president will make a difference, even a Republican president named Donald Trump.”
Schilling Wants to Run Against Warren
Former Red Sox pitcher Curt Schilling (R) told WRKO that he may challenge Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) in 2018.
Said Schilling: “I thought about it, and one of the things I would like to do is be one of the people responsible for getting Elizabeth Warren out of politics.”
GOP Chances to Retain Senate Slipping Away
FiveThirtyEight: “Since the conventions, however, Trump’s polling has worsened — overall and in states with key Senate races. In the eight states with competitive Senate races and both pre- and post-conventions polling, Trump had previously been down an average of about 6 percentage points; he’s now down an average of 9 points. And while Republican Senate candidates had been up by an average of a little more than 1 percentage point before the conventions in these eight states, they are now down by a little more than 1 point. That is, Republican Senate candidates in key states are still running ahead of Trump, but that cushion may no longer be enough to win now that Trump’s fortunes have worsened.”
Kasich Returns to New Hampshire with Eye on 2020
Cleveland Plain Dealer: “For Kasich, the trip will be his first to New Hampshire since finishing second to eventual GOP nominee Donald Trump in the February primary there. Kasich so far has refused to endorse Trump, citing the New York businessman’s inflammatory rhetoric. He has kept alive his political operation to campaign for down-ballot Republicans in races across the country this fall.”
“By getting involved in a New Hampshire race and sending word that he plans to gather with his allies there, Kasich is signaling that he also is keeping alive the option to run for president again in 2020. The all-important Granite State traditionally hosts the nation’s first primary.”
Trump Doubles Down on Nationalist Message
Washington Post: “At the lowest point of Donald Trump’s quest for the presidency, the Republican nominee might have brought in a political handyman to sand his edges. Instead, he put his campaign in the hands of a true believer who promises to amplify the GOP nominee’s nationalist message and reinforce his populist impulses.”
Trump Could Put Georgia Senate Seat In Play
Voters unhappy with either Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump and “casting a ballot for a third-party candidate could shake up Sen. Johnny Isakson’s (R-GA) battle for a third term. With polls showing Democrat Jim Barksdale in striking distance, both campaigns are quietly bracing for a possible Jan. 10 runoff,” the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.
How the Trump Campaign Learned It Was Losing
Politico: “The campaign is ‘feeling comfortable’ with the state of the race, Manafort told a TV interviewer… But in private, the top brass of the Trump campaign was growing increasingly alarmed at the dire numbers they were seeing — and aides knew they had to confront their boss with the truth. On Aug. 9, Tony Fabrizio, Trump’s chief pollster and a longtime party strategist, sat down with the nominee. The previous week had been a disaster, punctuated by Trump’s damaging confrontation with a Gold Star family. Fabrizio, who was joined by Manafort deputy Rick Gates, had just completed a fresh batch of polling and had an urgent message for the candidate: If you have another week like the last one, you won’t win.”
“According to interviews with over a dozen aides involved at various levels of the campaign, Trump’s team had already come to recognize the peril they faced.”
