“Clinton Releases Health Stats to Public, Trump to Dr. Oz”
— NBC News, September 15, 2016
Nearly Half Say Voter Fraud Happens Often
“Nearly half of Americans say that voter fraud occurs at least somewhat often according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll, a viewpoint at odds with studies showing it rarely occurs in U.S. elections,” the Washington Post reports.
“The poll also finds 63% of voters are confident that votes in this year’s presidential election will be counted accurately, down from about 7 in 10 in 2004.”
First Read: “Folks, there is scant evidence that widespread voter fraud takes place in our system. This is what happens when political rhetoric spirals out of control — and it undermines our democracy.”
Many Swing States Lag In Income Growth
A Wall Street Journal analysis of state-by-state income data “shows that more than half of the 13 states where the presidential race appears closely contested have seen below-average income growth since 2008. Among the eight laggards, three states saw the lowest wage growth in the U.S. during that time—Nevada, Georgia and Arizona.”
“The new data show how America’s uneven economic recovery is adding another layer of unpredictability to an already volatile electoral map. The traditional realm of battleground states has expanded, putting into play states such as Arizona and Georgia, which haven’t gone to a Democratic presidential candidate in at least 20 years.”
Making the Race About the Other Guy
This piece is only available to Political Wire members.
If you compare the chart below to the recent national polls, you’ll find that Hillary Clinton’s lead tends to shrink when she gets more media attention and widens when Trump is the focus. The exception to this was during the Democratic convention when Clinton was able to get her message out essentially unfiltered.
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball digs deeper into the numbers:
Over the period of July 5 to Sept. 13, there’s a weak negative correlation (-.29) between Trump’s polling margin in the HuffPost Pollster average and the margin between what percentage of respondents say they’ve heard about Trump minus the percentage who say they’ve heard about Clinton. That is, there appears to be at least a little bit of an inverse relationship between the relative level of coverage of Trump on the campaign trail and his polling margin. The more coverage, the worse his margin is, and vice versa. This correlation is stronger (-.49) over the past month (Aug. 13 to Sept. 13), moving beyond the convention period.
With two historically unpopular candidates this makes sense. It also explains the tightening in the polls over the last few weeks in which Clinton has been the focus of unflattering news coverage. During this time, Trump has also uncharacteristically stuck to the script outlined by his campaign managers.
Clinton Barely Ahead In Latest National Poll
A new CBS News/New York Times poll shows Hillary Clinton barely ahead of Donald Trump among likely voters, 46% to 44%.
In a four-way match Clinton and Trump are tied, 42% to 42%, with Gary Johnson at 8% and Jill Stein at 4%.
Key takeaway: “Clinton is ahead of Trump among voters under 30 but she is not getting the level of support Barack Obama received in 2012. 48% of young voters are currently backing her, while Obama won 60% of the young vote in 2012. Only 29% of young voters are supporting Trump, but 21% say they’ll vote for someone else or won’t vote.”
For members: If Clinton Loses, This Is Probably Why
Lawmaker Caught Slapping Man Over Campaign Sign
The day police released a video that shows Florida state Rep. Keith Perry (R) hitting a man as they argued over a campaign sign, Perry emailed a public apology, calling the incident a “silly disagreement,” the Gainesville Sun reports.
Why Trump Can Still Win Florida
Politico: “But at its core, the race is about race, about motivating white versus non-white voters. The whiter the electorate, the likelier it is Trump wins. And older whites are keeping Trump in the hunt.”
“Without the backing of older whites, polls indicate Trump would lose Florida — in this retirement mecca, the elderly are still a force at the ballot box. Of Florida’s 12.4 million active registered voters, more than 3.3 million are older than 65 years old, making them the largest age group on the rolls (followed by those 50 to 64). The elderly also have the highest turnout rate in Florida.”
“When it comes to race, non-Hispanic whites are 65 percent of the overall voter rolls and are the most-reliable voters.”
Exchange of the Day
Ivanka Trump talks to Cosmopolitan about her father’s new childcare and maternity leave policy:
Cosmopolitian: OK, I just wanted to make sure I understood. In 2004, Donald Trump said that pregnancy is an inconvenient thing for a business. It’s surprising to see this policy from him today. Can you talk a little bit about those comments, and perhaps what has changed?
Ivanka Trump: So I think that you have a lot of negativity in these questions, and I think my father has put forth a very comprehensive and really revolutionary plan to deal with a lot of issues. So I don’t know how useful it is to spend too much time with you on this if you’re going to make a comment like that.
Will Trump Nominate Peter Thiel to Supreme Court?
“Donald Trump has made it clear he will nominate Peter Thiel to the Supreme Court if he wins the presidency, Thiel has told friends, according to a source close to the PayPal co-founder,” the Huffington Post reports.
“It’s not clear whether Trump has indeed offered to nominate Thiel ― only that Thiel has said Trump would nominate him and that Trump’s team has discussed Thiel as a possible nominee. Both sources requested anonymity, given that Trump and Thiel have each demonstrated a willingness to seek revenge against parties they feel have wronged them. In Thiel’s case, he secretly financed lawsuits against Gawker.com with the intention of destroying the publication. He succeeded, and his role in the assault was only revealed in the final stages.”
Demographic Shifts for Clinton Are Overrated
Nate Cohn: “So here’s a simple question: Why haven’t these demographics swept Hillary Clinton to a big polling lead and a smooth glide to victory? Donald J. Trump, after all, has alienated just about every growing demographic group and every category that helped push Mr. Obama to victory.”
“The biggest reason is that demographic change was an overrated contribution to Mr. Obama’s victory, and it will help Mrs. Clinton only at the margins this year. Analysts have conflated all of the effect of higher turnout and percentage of support among nonwhite voters with demographic shifts. In truth, the turnout and support were far more powerful components.”
For members: The Obama Coalition Isn’t Coming Together — Yet
Bonus Quote of the Day
“I don’t know folks, do you think Hillary Clinton would be able to stand up here for an hour? I don’t know.”
— Donald Trump, quoted by the Daily Beast, finally breaking four days of near silence about Hillary Clinton’s health.
Is Trump Just Campaigning Better?
Josh Barro: “Obviously, it’s been a rough few weeks for Hillary Clinton, and most of the poll analysis has focused on how she has hurt herself and what she can do to improve her position.”
“But here’s the thought that’s making me nervous: What if the shift in the polls is more about Donald Trump campaigning better?”
“Specifically, what if it’s about the fact that he brought in a reasonably competent campaign manager, Kellyanne Conway, on August 17, started listening to her advice, and became somewhat less self-destructive and more on-message?”
Even Trump’s Charity Is a Scam
A Washington Post editorial:
“Mr. Trump has cultivated the persona of a generous man, repeatedly claiming on television he would donate to charity “out of my wallet” and accepting honors from groups he appeared to support. In fact, an exhaustive investigation by Post reporter David A. Fahrenthold shows that Mr. Trump retooled his foundation about a decade ago to act as an intermediary for other people’s charitable giving, a racket from which Mr. Trump gained in reputation and from which he may even have occasionally profited.”
“Mr. Trump does not appear to have given his own money to the Trump Foundation since 2008, and by then Trump funds had become a tiny slice of the organization’s revenue. Since then, the available records suggest, a charitable group that bears the billionaire’s name has been funded by others. That has not stopped Mr. Trump from claiming credit for doling out other people’s cash.”
Trump Checkup Said to Reveal He Is Overweight
“After a whiplash-inducing morning of mixed messages, Donald Trump on Wednesday opened a small window into some of the results from his most recent physical examination, revealing that he is overweight and takes a statin, a type of drug that lowers cholesterol,” the New York Times reports.
“Mr. Trump gave the quick synopsis on Dr. Mehmet Oz’s television show after the Republican presidential nominee’s aides had said that he would, then that he would not, broach the topic with the doctor on the show.”
“A Trump aide said that Dr. Oz, who focuses heavily on obesity, declared Mr. Trump ‘slightly overweight’ with a weight of 236 pounds (although earlier reports put his weight at 267 pounds.)”
State Poll Roundup: Wednesday
Here are the latest state polls from the presidential race:
Ohio: Trump 48%, Clinton 43% (Bloomberg)
South Carolina: Trump 53%, Clinton 38% (Trafalgar)
Nevada: Trump 44%, Clinton 42% (Monmouth)
Florida: Trump 46%, Clinton 41%, Johnson 8%, Stein 2% (CNN/ORC)
Ohio: Trump 47%, Clinton 44%, Johnson 6%, Stein 1% (CNN/ORC)
Pennsylvania: Clinton 48%, Trump 40% (GBA Strategies)
Clinton’s National Lead Narrows
A new Quinnipiac poll shows Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump nationally among likely voters by five points, 48% to 43%.
With third party candidates in the race, results are too close to call, with Clinton leading 41% to 39%, and Gary Johnson at 13$ and Jill Stein at 4$.
A new Economist/YouGov poll shows Clinton leading by two points, 42% to 40%.
Hacked Email of the Day
From the DC Leaks archive of hacked emails from Colin Powell’s personal email account, via Will Rahn, CBS News.
Quote of the Day
“Political probabilities are not like blackjack. There is only one roll of the dice, and 35% probability events happen frequently in real life.”
— Citigroup’s chief global political analyst Tina Fordham, quoted by Fox Business, warning that a “35% probability for a Trump victory is more meaningful than investors may be appreciating.”
