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Brexit Vote Shows Why Trump Can Win

June 24, 2016 at 9:46 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 211 Comments

James Hohmann: “Britain’s stunning vote to leave the European Union suggests that we’ve been seriously underestimating Donald Trump’s ability to win the presidential election.”

“When you consider all his controversies and self-inflicted wounds over the past month, combined with how much he’s getting outspent on the airwaves in the battleground states, it is actually quite surprising that Trump and Hillary Clinton are so close in the polls. He’s holding his own, especially in the Rust Belt.”

“The British campaign to exit the European Union… like Trump’s, was fueled by grievance. Those agitating to cut off formal ties to the continent were less organized and less funded than those who wanted to stay connected, but that deficit didn’t matter in the end, because the energy was against the status quo.”

Trump Promotes Own Business at Surreal Press Conference

June 24, 2016 at 9:41 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 64 Comments

First Read: “In what has to be one of the more surreal press conferences in U.S. presidential-campaign history, Donald Trump praised the British vote to leave the European Union in a place — Scotland — that overwhelming voted to remain; he said the falling British pound would be good for business; and he touted the opening of his new golf course in Scotland.”

Said Trump: “I love to see people to take their country back.”

“He said that Britain’s declining currency was good for business, including at his new golf course… One of Hillary Clinton’s greatest weaknesses is the perception that she has used her political standing to make money. But Trump overshadows that when he takes his presidential campaign to Scotland — the day after the Brexit vote — to christen a new resort/golf course and talk about how a falling currency is good for business.”

Sanders Says He’ll Vote for Clinton

June 24, 2016 at 9:00 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 126 Comments

Bernie Sanders said that he will vote for Hillary Clinton for president in November, “the strongest expression of support yet from the Vermont senator for his rival, though he later left the door open that he might change his mind,” CNN reports.


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What Does the Brexit Vote Mean?

June 24, 2016 at 7:20 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 176 Comments

A reader writes in the Financial Times:

“A quick note on the first three tragedies. Firstly, it was the working classes who voted for us to leave because they were economically disregarded, and it is they who will suffer the most in the short term. They have merely swapped one distant and unreachable elite for another. Secondly, the younger generation has lost the right to live and work in 27 other countries. We will never know the full extent of the lost opportunities, friendships, marriages and experiences we will be denied. Freedom of movement was taken away by our parents, uncles, and grandparents in a parting blow to a generation that was already drowning in the debts of our predecessors. Thirdly and perhaps most significantly, we now live in a post-factual democracy. When the facts met the myths they were as useless as bullets bouncing off the bodies of aliens in a HG Wells novel.

When Michael Gove said, ‘The British people are sick of experts,’ he was right. But can anybody tell me the last time a prevailing culture of anti-intellectualism has led to anything other than bigotry?”

Quote of the Day

June 24, 2016 at 7:14 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 52 Comments

“I have a lot of friends living in Germany that have always been very proud Germans, to a level that you wouldn’t believe.”

— Donald Trump, quoted by the Los Angeles Times, commenting on the ramifications of the Brexit vote.

Trump Hails Brexit Vote

June 24, 2016 at 7:11 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 30 Comments

Donald Trump cheered Britain’s vote to leave the European Union, Politico reports.

Said Trump: “They’re angry over borders. They’re angry over people coming into the country and taking over, and nobody even knows who they are. They’re angry about many, many things.”

He added: “Basically, they took back their country. That’s a great thing.”

Another Scottish Independence Vote Likely

June 24, 2016 at 7:08 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 61 Comments

Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon “says she believes a second referendum on Scottish independence is ‘highly likely’ after the rest of the UK voted to leave the EU,” the Guardian reports.

“Speaking in Edinburgh, Sturgeon said she was deeply disappointed by the result of the UK referendum but said it had exposed a clear divide between Scottish and English voters, after Scotland voted heavily in favour of remaining.”

Britain Votes to Leave the European Union

June 24, 2016 at 6:29 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 159 Comments

“Britain has voted to leave the European Union, a historic decision sure to reshape the nation’s place in the world, rattle the Continent and rock political establishments throughout the West,” the New York Times reports.

“Not long after the vote tally was completed, Prime Minister David Cameron, who led the campaign to remain in the bloc, appeared in front of 10 Downing Street to announce that he planned to step down by October, saying the country deserved a leader committed to carrying out the will of the people.”

“The stunning turn of events was accompanied by a plunge in the financial markets, with the value of the British pound and stock prices in Asia plummeting.”

BBC: What happens now?

Can the European Union Survive?

June 24, 2016 at 6:15 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 24 Comments

“The EU must reinvent itself to survive after Britain’s vote to leave. It may be too late,” the AP reports.

“The damning verdict of British voters was the worst setback to the EU since the germ of a more integrated Europe first took shape in the ruins left by World War II. And it threatens to be wildly contagious — even before the ballots were all tallied, populist leaders in some of the EU’s founding nations were clamoring for a vote on EU membership in their own countries.”

“From Paris to Berlin to Brussels, EU leaders agree they need to change in response to the British referendum. Yet they disagree on how — on whether to tighten their union or rethink it to address those who increasingly distrust all things EU.”

McConnell Kills Senate Effort on Guns

June 23, 2016 at 6:59 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 137 Comments

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) “cut the legs out from a bipartisan effort to keep suspected terrorists from buying guns,” The Hill reports.

“In doing so, McConnell, a master of the Senate’s arcane rules, provided cover for vulnerable Republicans who wanted to be seen as supporting the effort, but did not want to cross the National Rifle Association.”

New York Times: “The solution was a procedural maneuver by which the majority leader, Mitch McConnell, Republican of Kentucky, scheduled the bill for a vote on a motion to table it. By voting not to table it, Republicans could keep it alive without advancing or defeating it outright — putting it in a sort of legislative purgatory.”

Clinton Failed to Hand Over Key Email

June 23, 2016 at 6:55 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 74 Comments

“Hillary Clinton failed to turn over a copy of a key message involving problems caused by her use of a private homebrew email server, the State Department confirmed Thursday,” the AP reports.

“The disclosure makes it unclear what other work-related emails may have been deleted by the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee.”

Trump Converts $50 Million Loan Into a Donation

June 23, 2016 at 3:53 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 63 Comments

Donald Trump’s campaign announced that he “has forgiven more than $50 million in loans he made to finance his presidential bid, converting them into contributions in an effort to reassure GOP donors that he is personally invested in the effort,” the Washington Post reports.

“By turning the loans into donations, Trump’s campaign cannot repay the candidate, even if a surplus arises.  The campaign, however, can continue to reimburse Trump’s companies, and those of his children, for campaign-related expenses, including travel.”

Why Did Trump Pay This Firm $730K?

June 23, 2016 at 3:51 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 36 Comments

Washington Post: “The rapid series of payments — $730,637 over five days — made Left Hand the 10th biggest vendor to the Trump campaign for the entire election cycle. But why it was hired, and what work it provided, remains a mystery even to some top Trump aides.”

“The campaign’s use of the mysterious pop-up firm has surfaced at a time of financial tumult for the Trump operation, which began June low on funds and has come under scrutiny for making large reimbursements to his companies.”

CNN Snags Ex-Trump Campaign Manager

June 23, 2016 at 2:07 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 109 Comments

Former Donald Trump campaign manager Corey Lewandowski is joining CNN as a political commentator, Politico reports.

It’s a salaried position and will make Lewandowski exclusive to CNN, effective immediately.

What Trump’s Money Troubles Tell Us

June 23, 2016 at 2:00 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 48 Comments

Matt Bai: “We can derive at least three pretty relevant insights on the state of Trump’s candidacy from his political penury…First, as long as he has to rely on free exposure to compete with Clinton, Republican leaders should probably relinquish all hope of ever seeing a more responsible, electable version of their nominee… Second, Trump has just about wasted the small window he had, after the contested primaries and before the convention, to reassure Republican influencers and consolidate their support.”

“Trump’s so-called campaign is really just a small project in his business empire, populated by a handful of junior executives and based entirely on personal celebrity…my guess is he still wants to be president about as much as I want to be on ‘Dancing With the Stars’…  And that right there is the real problem for Republicans… They’ve allowed their party to become an elaborate prop in a tasteless stunt, used by a man who to this point shows very little seriousness of purpose… It’s not that Trump can’t win with a lot less money than his opponent. It’s that he’d probably have a lot more money if he were actually running to win.”

Dead Heat In North Carolina

June 23, 2016 at 1:26 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 66 Comments

A new Public Policy Polling survey in North Carolina finds Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are dead even at 43% each, with Libertarian Gary Johnson at 4%, Green Party candidate Jill Stein at 2%.

In a two person race, Trump leads 48% to 46%.

Poll Finds Clinton Ahead In Arizona

June 23, 2016 at 1:16 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 91 Comments

A new Predictive Insights poll in Arizona finds Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump in the GOP presidential race, 47% to 42%.

Kirk Distances Himself from His Own Party

June 23, 2016 at 1:12 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 26 Comments

Sen. Mark Kirk’s (R-IL) new ad could easily be mistaken for one run by a Democrat.

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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