Washington Post: “Looking at quarterly averages of Obama’s approval, you can see how stark the improvement has been by party. Democrats have slowly looked at Obama more favorably since the beginning of 2015, but independents have begun to look at Obama much more favorably. After a sharp slide following his reelection, independents turned their opinions of Obama around at the beginning of 2014. Over the past year, that’s escalated. And since ratings from Democrats and Republicans are more stable, that shift by independents moves the needle a lot.”
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A Different Kind of Choice In 2016
Dan Balz: “His political instincts are as rash as hers are cautious. Her policy proposals are as detailed and numerous as his are broad and few in numbers. Her public appearances are controlled and careful. His are the political equivalent of The Truman Show. She says he is unqualified to be president. He says she is unfit to serve.”
“There are certainly ideological differences between the two. But this is not an election that presents voters with the kind of choice they had in 2012. President Obama and former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney had sharply different views about social and cultural issues, the size and scope of government, the best ways to create jobs and projecting U.S. power abroad.”
The Hidden Danger of Donald Trump
Adam Gopnik: “One can argue about whether to call him a fascist or an authoritarian populist or a grotesque joke made in a nightmare shared between Philip K. Dick and Tom Wolfe, but under any label Trump is a declared enemy of the liberal constitutional order of the United States—the order that has made it, in fact, the great and plural country that it already is. He announces his enmity to America by word and action every day. It is articulated in his insistence on the rightness of torture and the acceptable murder of noncombatants. It is self-evident in the threats he makes daily to destroy his political enemies, made only worse by the frivolity and transience of the tone of those threats. He makes his enmity to American values clear when he suggests that the Presidency holds absolute power, through which he will be able to end opposition—whether by questioning the ownership of newspapers or talking about changing libel laws or threatening to take away F.C.C. licenses.”
“To say ‘Well, he would not really have the power to accomplish that’ is to misunderstand the nature of thin-skinned authoritarians in power. They do not arrive in office and discover, as constitutionalists do, that their capabilities are more limited than they imagined. They arrive, and then make their power as large as they can.”
Clinton’s Campaign Dwarfs Trump’s
“At the outset of the general election, Hillary Clinton’s campaign looks like a well-oiled juggernaut next to Donald Trump’s vastly smaller, self-funded operation,” a Politico analysis of FEC reports found.
“Through the end of last month, the period covered by the most recent FEC filings, Trump’s campaign had spent less than a third as much Clinton’s ($57 million to $182 million) and had assembled a staff about one-tenth the size of her (70 employees to 732), with a fraction as many offices (Trump last month paid $101,000 in rent vs. $328,000 for Clinton), the analysis found.”
Oklahoma Governor Vetoes Anti-Abortion Bill
Oklahoma Gov. Mary Fallin (R) vetoed a bill that would have effectively banned abortion in her state, The Oklahoman reports.
“She said the measure was vague and would not withstand a constitutional legal challenge. Senate Bill 1552 would have made it a felony for physicians to perform abortions. It also contained a provision to revoke their medical licenses unless the abortion was necessary to save the life of the mother.”
Why Trump Is Surging in the Polls
Politico: “The main reason for Trump’s surge over the past few weeks? He is earning increasingly larger shares of the Republican vote — even as some prominent GOP leaders, like House Speaker Paul Ryan, haven’t yet committed to supporting their party’s apparent nominee. But rank-and-file Republican voters are lining up behind Trump in large numbers, closing the gap with Clinton’s support among Democrats, which had been higher during earlier stages of the campaign.”
Perry Would Be Willing to be Trump’s Running Mate
Former Texas Gov. Rick Perry (R), who once called Donald Trump “a cancer on conservatism,” told CNN that he would be willing to serve as the presumptive Republican nominee’s vice president.
Trump Says Clinton Will Abolish the 2nd Amendment
Donald Trump told the National Rifle Association that Hillary Clinton would take away the right to bear arms, moments after the gun group endorsed the presumptive GOP nominee at its annual meeting, CNN reports.
Calling the endorsement a “fantastic honor,” Trump dove right into attacking Clinton, saying she “wants to abolish the Second Amendment.”
Said Trump: “We’re not going to let that happen. We’re going to preserve it, we’re going to cherish it.”
Lawmakers Seek to Impeach Obama Over Bathrooms
“Oklahoma’s Republican-dominated legislature has filed a measure calling for President Obama’s impeachment over his administration’s recommendations on accommodating transgender students, saying he overstepped his constitutional authority,” Reuters reports.
“Lawmakers in the socially conservative state are also expected to take up a measure as early as Friday that would allow students to claim a religious right to have separate but equal bathrooms and changing facilities to segregate them from transgender students.”
Extra Bonus Quote of the Day
“Trump is a dick.”
— Former Obama speechwriter Jon Favreau, quoted by Politico.
Trump Said There Would Be No Housing Collapse
“Just months before the U.S. housing market started to crash, beginning the downward spiral that sent the globe on the road to the massive 2008 financial crisis, Donald Trump was advising Trump University students that he didn’t think there was a bubble in the real estate market,” BuzzFeed reports.
“The comments from Trump in an October 2006 audiobook were one of numerous times Trump said through Trump University that he didn’t think there was a housing bubble. In another Trump University audiobook released earlier that year, Trump said to take talk of real estate bubble talk with a ‘pinch of salt.'”
Do Trump Supporters Lie to Pollsters?
Harry Enten: “Trump did worse than the polling forecast in 19 states; he did better in 15 states. That hardly suggests that Trump outperforms his polling. Still, the difference isn’t so great that we can say Trump usually underperforms his polling. It’s a fairly even split, with Trump missing his average poll by just 1 percentage point in the median state. Two of Trump’s worst performances relative to the polls were in Kansas and Iowa — both states held low-turnout caucuses, which Trump won’t have to deal with in the general election. Overall, Trump’s percentage of the vote versus the polls is about what you’d expect of the average politician.”
For members: How Many People Don’t Admit They Support Trump?
Trump Once Paid No Income Taxes
“The last time information from Donald Trump’s income-tax returns was made public, the bottom line was striking: He had paid the federal government $0 in income taxes,” the Washington Post reports.
“The disclosure, in a 1981 report by New Jersey gambling regulators, revealed that the wealthy Manhattan investor had for at least two years in the late 1970s taken advantage of a tax-code provision popular with developers that allowed him to report negative income.”
Bonus Quote of the Day
DNC Will Offer Concessions to Sanders
“In an attempt to head off an ugly conflict at its convention this summer, the Democratic National Committee plans to offer a concession to Sen. Bernie Sanders — seats on a key convention platform committee — but it may not be enough to stop Sanders from picking a fight over the party’s policy positions,” the Washington Post reports.
“Allies of both Clinton and Sanders have urged Democratic leaders to meet some of Sanders’s more mundane demands for greater inclusion at the Philadelphia convention. Their decision to do so is expected to be finalized by the end of the week, according to two people familiar with the discussions. But growing mistrust between Sanders supporters and party leaders have threatened to undermine that effort.”
Sanders Quietly Reassures Democrats
“As tensions were escalating between Bernie Sanders and Democratic Party leaders over the chaos caused by his supporters at a Nevada convention, Dick Durbin got an unexpected call from the Vermont senator,” Bloomberg reports.
“Durbin, the No. 2 Democrat in the Senate, came away from the conversation on Wednesday convinced that Sanders, who has all but lost the presidential nomination battle to Hillary Clinton, understands the need for party unity and will do his part to defeat presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump.”
GOP Donors Shift Focus to Congress
“Hundreds of millions of dollars that Republican groups had been poised to spend in the 2016 presidential election are now increasingly likely to move into Senate and House races, as many big donors look to distance themselves from the party’s presumptive nominee, Donald J. Trump,” the New York Times reports.
“These groups and their Democratic counterparts have already spent more than $25 million on advertising in Senate general election races alone, according to Kantar Media/CMAG, significantly outpacing both the 2014 and 2012 campaigns in outside spending. And more than $134 million in advertising for Senate races alone has been reserved by groups for the general election.”
Trump Addresses the NRA
“Donald Trump will have another chance to reassure wary conservatives still reluctant to back a candidate who once expressed support for an assault weapons ban and contributed to anti-gun Democrats when he speaks at the National Rifle Association’s national convention Friday,” NBC News reports.
“Since expressing support for the ban and a longer waiting period for gun purchases in 2000, Trump’s done an about-face on the issue. He’s since called gun bans ‘a total failure,’ opposed an expansion of background checks and called for concealed carry permits to be valid across all 50 states.”