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Trump Is In a Deep Hole

June 27, 2016 at 9:50 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Rick Klein: “Live by the polls, die by the polls, kill the polls that give you bad news. As Donald Trump fights polling he views as unfair, the top line numbers in the new ABC News/Washington Post poll are the least of Trump’s problems. The poll shows that two-thirds of voters see Trump as biased against women and minorities, and two-thirds think his comments about the judge in the Trump University case were racist. Sixty-four percent see him as unqualified for the presidency, and 70 percent say the idea of Trump as president gives them anxiety.”

“Given those numbers, a 51-39 Hillary Clinton edge actually looks narrow. Clearly, there’s room for movement in either direction for Trump. But he’s dug himself a hole that suggests he could dip significantly lower before he’s done litigating polling quibbles.”

Who’s Leading the Veepstakes Hunt?

June 27, 2016 at 9:47 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

There seems to be a growing consensus in media reports over who might be on each presidential candidate’s shortlist for running mate.

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Trump Predicts Break Up of European Union

June 27, 2016 at 9:29 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Donald Trump told the Times of London that the European Union’s days are numbered.

Said Trump: “The people have spoken. I think the EU is going to break up. I think the EU might break up before anybody thinks in terms of Scotland. I really think that without the immigration issue [the EU] wouldn’t have had a chance of breaking up … the people are fed up, whether it’s here or in other countries. You watch: other countries will follow.”

Asked what he would do to curb the number of migrants entering southern Europe, he said: “I would not allow them in.”


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Experts Say Trump Is Lying About His Fundraising Haul

June 27, 2016 at 9:25 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“If it only took one email for Donald Trump to raise more than $3.3 million, just think of the possibilities for the future of his campaign,” the Daily Beast reports.

“Of course, the operative word here is “if”—as in, if Team Trump’s boast about raising so much, so quickly were true. It’s probably not.”

“Donald Trump’s fundraising operation has been riddled with rookie errors—it’s been unsophisticated, untested and very small throughout his presidential bid, leading digital marketing experts to question whether it would be possible to actually raise the extraordinary figures he claims to have raised in a single fundraising email he sent last week.”

Comparing Two National Polls

June 27, 2016 at 9:00 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

First Read looks at the two national polls out over the weekend:

“The biggest difference between the NBC/WSJ and WaPo/ABC polls? Our poll has Democrats with a four-point party ID advantage, while the WaPo/ABC poll has Democrats with a 12-point party ID edge. So when in doubt, average them out — and in the latest RealClearPolitics average, Clinton leads Trump by nearly seven points in a head-to-head matchup. And remember, seven points was the final margin of the 2008 Obama-McCain contest.”

Trump Explores Clinton’s ‘Legendary Lies’

June 27, 2016 at 8:18 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Donald Trump launched a 10-part video series outlining what he calls “legendary lies” told by democratic opponent Hillary Clinton.

Two Really Unpopular Candidates

June 27, 2016 at 7:35 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll: “The most disliked of all is Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump, who is viewed unfavorably by a full 60 percent of the electorate, while only 29 percent offer a positive rating of the GOP standard-bearer (-31 rating). Hillary Clinton is not far behind, with 33 percent of voters giving her a favorable rating compared to 55 percent who give her a negative rating (-22).”

“For the Republican Party, it’s 28 percent positive/ 48 percent negative (-20). The Democratic Party is slightly less unpopular at 37 percent positive and 43 percent negative (-6).”

Dick Morris Says He’s Advising Trump

June 27, 2016 at 7:23 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Just published: Armageddon: How Trump Can Beat Hillary by Dick Morris.

Morris tells the Daily Caller that he sends “several” memos to Trump campaign staffers “each day” but has no interest in joining the campaign in any official capacity.

Supreme Court Continues Leftward Trend

June 27, 2016 at 7:15 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

New York Times: “The court issued liberal decisions in 56 percent of cases so far this term, according to a widely accepted standard developed by political scientists that considers signed decisions in argued cases. The share is only slightly lower than in the 2014-15 term, which had the highest share of liberal decisions since the court led by Chief Justice Earl Warren in the 1950s and 1960s.”

For members: Democrats Dream of Remaking the Supreme Court

Democrats See Chance at Taking House

June 27, 2016 at 7:11 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Democrats are scrambling to make the most of the unexpected yet slender opportunity Donald Trump has given them to challenge for the House majority,” Politico reports.

“Party operatives increasingly believe that Trump’s unpopularity could create a wave that would endanger Republicans’ 30-seat edge in the House. Now, Democrats are diving into the forbidding district-by-district math, scrutinizing under-the-radar and cash-starved House candidates who haven’t gotten attention from Washington thus far, to try and get their campaigns in good enough fighting shape to take advantage of a potential Trump backlash.”

Few Want to Speak at the GOP Convention

June 27, 2016 at 7:06 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Politico: “With the convention less than a month away, Politico contacted more than 50 prominent governors, senators, and House members to gauge their interest in speaking. Only a few said they were open to it — and everyone else said they either weren’t planning on it, didn’t want to, weren’t going to Cleveland at all, or simply didn’t respond.”

“The widespread lack of interest, Republicans say, boils down to one thing: the growing consensus that it’s best to steer clear of Trump.”

Anti-Trump Efforts Moves to Cleveland

June 27, 2016 at 6:12 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Anti-Trump forces will be sending an ‘advance team’ to Cleveland this week to begin preparing their effort to strip the Republican presidential nomination from Donald Trump,” Politico reports.

“In a Sunday night conference call with allies around the country, the leaders of the effort described a slow-building organization that would begin setting up a command center outside the arena where the Republican National Convention will be held next month.”

RNC Seeks to Drive Wedge Over Clinton’s VP Pick

June 26, 2016 at 9:18 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 65 Comments

“The Republican National Committee is planning to cleave liberal voters away from Hillary Clinton as part of a campaign to counteract her forthcoming pick of a vice presidential running mate,” the Huffington Post reports.

“In a detailed memo outlining its strategy to combat Clinton’s VP choice, the committee says it will frame the selection as both a cynical play to certain constituencies and as an emotional letdown for voters who backed Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) in the Democratic primary.”

Crisis In Europe Intensifies

June 26, 2016 at 9:17 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 20 Comments

“Britain’s political crisis intensified on Sunday after its decision to leave the European Union, with the opposition Labour Party splitting into warring camps, Scotland’s leader suggesting that its local Parliament might try to block the departure and many Britons wondering if there was a plausible way for the nation to reconsider its drastic choice,” the New York Times reports.

“Hanging over the jockeying for power was intensifying discussion of whether the British exit, or “Brexit,” might somehow be avoided or circumvented.”

For members: Did David Cameron Just Outsmart the Brexiters?

Will Negative Ads Even Work this Year?

June 26, 2016 at 8:19 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 17 Comments

New York Times: “In a year when so many staples of American politics have faltered — television advertisements, polling, big-ticket endorsements, to name a few — will the negative campaign, whether wielded by Mr. Trump or Mrs. Clinton, be the reliable weapon it has proved to be in presidential campaigns over the course of American history? Is there anything left to say about two candidates who are so well known and so polarizing?”

Quote of the Day

June 26, 2016 at 3:01 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 131 Comments

“We have a candidate who doesn’t need to figure out what’s going on in order to say what he wants to do.”

— Trump adviser Paul Manafort, in an interview on Meet the Press.

Clinton Leads In Four Battlegrounds

June 26, 2016 at 2:17 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 166 Comments

The CBS News battleground tracker finds Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump in four key states:

  • Florida: Clinton 44%, Trump 41%
  • Colorado: Clinton 40%, Trump 39%
  • Wisconsin: Clinton 41%, Trump 36%
  • North Carolina: Clinton 44%, Trump 42%

Gingrich Says He’s Not Being Vetted

June 26, 2016 at 1:43 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 90 Comments

Newt Gingrich told Fox News that he is not being vetted as a potential vice presidential pick for presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump.

Said Gingrich: “Nobody has called me. Nobody has said would you like to be. Nobody has said, ‘Would you be willing to be considered?'”

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RINO: Republican In Name Only — or RINO, for short — is a disparaging term that refers to a Republican candidate whose political views are seen ….

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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