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New Poll Shows Turmoil Ahead for Republicans

April 25, 2016 at 4:13 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 74 Comments

A new Suffolk University/USA Today poll finds that while 60% of Republican voters will support the eventual GOP nominee if their candidate is not chosen, a majority of Donald Trump supporters said they would vote for the businessman if he were to lose the nomination and run as a third-party candidate.

Meanwhile, 40% of Republicans whose favored candidate is not nominated said they will vote for the Democratic nominee, seriously consider a third-party candidate, stay home on Election Day in November, or are undecided.

Bonus Quote of the Day

April 25, 2016 at 12:19 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 47 Comments

“Somebody should be indicted over Right to Rise. I would sue them for fraud.”

— GOP donor Doug Deason, quoted by The Hill, about the super PAC that supported Jeb Bush’s presidential campaign.

Cruz-Kasich Deal Unravels Within Hours

April 25, 2016 at 11:35 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 76 Comments

Gov. John Kasich “said that Indiana’s voters should still back him, despite an alliance with Ted Cruz to clear the way for the senator in the state’s Republican primary,” The Hill reports.

Said Kasich: “I’ve never told them not to vote for me. They ought to vote for me.”

For members: Why the Cruz-Kasich Alliance Won’t Work

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Will Kasich Hand Trump the Nomination?

April 25, 2016 at 11:25 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 29 Comments

John Fund: “The best delegate trackers out there still think it likely that Donald Trump will fall short of the 1,237 delegates he needs to secure the GOP nomination on the first ballot.”

“But there’s one man who can cut a deal and instantly make Trump the de facto nominee: Ohio governor John Kasich. He would then probably be responsible for setting in motion devastating GOP losses in November of not only the White House but also control of the U.S. Senate.”

For members: How Trump’s Veep Pick Could Help Him Win the Nomination

Inside Trump’s Unique Campaign Strategy

April 25, 2016 at 11:00 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 20 Comments

Veteran political operative Roger Stone told the New Yorker that Donald Trump “listens to no one.”

Said Stone: “On his own, he conceptualized a campaign model that rejects all the things you do in politics—no polling, no opposition research, no issue shop, no analytics, no targeting, no paid advertising to speak of.”

He added: “He had this vision of an all-communication-based strategy of rallies, debates, and as many interviews as he can smash into a day. The campaign exists to support the logistics of the tour.”

Clinton Has Small Lead Over Trump In Fall Match Up

April 25, 2016 at 9:33 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 199 Comments

A new GW Battleground Poll finds Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump in a general election match up by just three points, 46% to 43%, with 11% undecided.

Said pollster Ed Goeas: “The Republican Party has a strongly favorable political environment for winning the White House. If a mainstream Republican candidate were the presumptive nominee, the GOP would likely be in a strong position for a lot of wins, top to bottom, in November.”

Why the Cruz-Kasich Alliance Won’t Work

April 25, 2016 at 9:14 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 18 Comments

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

The biggest news of the day is that Sen. Ted Cruz and Gov. John Kasich have joined forces in an effort to stop Donald Trump.

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Trump Losing Unbound Delegate Race to Cruz

April 25, 2016 at 9:12 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 9 Comments

“Of the 63 unbound delegates who have already been named, 26 have told TIME or other news outlets that they are either committed to support Cruz, lean towards supporting Cruz or refuse to support Trump on the first ballot. By contrast Trump has the public support of only one delegate in North Dakota. Another delegate in American Samoa is Trump’s local campaign chair, but he declined to confirm to Time that he will support Trump on the first ballot. Fifteen others declined to tell TIME their preference, and 15 more could not be reached for comment.”

How Trump’s Veep Pick Could Help Him Win the Nomination

April 25, 2016 at 9:01 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 11 Comments

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

If Donald Trump is close to the 1,237 delegates needed to secure the Republican nomination, his selection of a vice presidential running mate could help him get over the top.

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Don’t Expect a Concession Speech from Trump

April 25, 2016 at 8:20 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 40 Comments

Donald Trump mocked “candidates who praise their opponents during concession speeches, saying that if he lost the contest, Americans would probably not hear from him,” Yahoo News reports.

Said Trump: “They fight like hell for six months, and they’re saying horrible things, the worst things you can imagine. And then one of them loses, one of them wins. And the one who loses says, ‘I just want to congratulate my opponent. He is a brilliant man, he’ll be a great governor or president or whatever.'”

He added: “I’m not sure you’re ever going to see me there. I don’t think I’m going to lose, but if I do, I don’t think you’re ever going to see me again, folks. I think I’ll go to Turnberry and play golf or something.”

Trump Holds Big Lead In Pennsylvania

April 25, 2016 at 8:07 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 10 Comments

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Pennsylvania finds Donald Trump leading the GOP presidential race with 51%, followed by Ted Cruz at 25% and John Kasich at 22%.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders 51% to 41%.

Trump Headed Towards Landslide In Rhode Island

April 25, 2016 at 8:05 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 12 Comments

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Rhode Island finds Donald Trump leading the GOP presidential race with 61%, followed by John Kasich at 23% and Ted Cruz at 13%.

On the Democratic side, Bernie Sanders leads Hillary Clinton 49% to 45%.

A new Brown University poll finds Trump leading with 38%, followed by Kasich at 25% and Cruz at 14%.

Meanwhile, Clinton leads Sanders 43% to 34%.

Trump Way Ahead In Connecticut

April 25, 2016 at 8:02 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 21 Comments

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Connecticut finds Donald Trump leading the GOP presidential race with 59%, followed by John Kasich at 25% and Ted Cruz at 13%.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton edges Bernie Sanders 48% to 46%.

Quote of the Day

April 25, 2016 at 7:20 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 27 Comments

“So let me make things real simple, even if Donald Trump dresses up as Hillary Clinton, he shouldn’t be using the girl’s restroom.”

— Sen. Ted Cruz, quoted by ABC News, before apologizing to the audience for giving them the image of “Donald in a bright blue pantsuit.”

Cruz and Kasich Cooperate to Stop Trump

April 25, 2016 at 6:54 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 33 Comments

Sen. Ted Cruz and Gov. John Kasich “have agreed to coordinate in future primary contests in a last-ditch effort to deny Donald J. Trump the Republican presidential nomination, with each candidate standing aside in certain states amid growing concerns that Mr. Trump cannot otherwise be stopped,” the New York Times reports.

“In a statement late Sunday night, Mr. Cruz’s campaign manager, Jeff Roe, said that the campaign would ‘focus its time and resources in Indiana and in turn clear the path for Governor Kasich to compete in Oregon and New Mexico.’ Minutes after Mr. Roe’s statement, the Kasich campaign put out a similar message.”

Trump responded on Twitter: “Lyin’ Ted and Kasich are mathematically dead and totally desperate. Their donors & special interest groups are not happy with them. Sad!”

Biden Turns Focus to Taking Back Senate

April 25, 2016 at 6:03 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 19 Comments

Politico: “While most of the public attention has been on the presidential race — and President Barack Obama has so far been holding off on campaigning other than endorsing select candidates with statements and fundraising for party committees — the vice president has quietly embarked on a year-long legacy project for a little political poetic justice.”

Sanders Moves to Shape Democratic Agenda

April 25, 2016 at 6:01 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 48 Comments

“Even as his chances of winning the Democratic presidential nomination slip away, Sen. Bernie Sanders and his allies are trying to use his popularity to expand his political influence, setting up an ideological struggle for the soul of the Democratic Party in the post-Obama era,” the New York Times reports.

“Amid his unexpectedly strong showing in the Democratic primaries, Mr. Sanders has tapped his two-million-person donor list to raise money for liberal congressional candidates in New York, Nevada and Washington State. And in the waning months of Barack Obama’s presidency, Mr. Sanders’s allies are testing their muscle against the White House, mounting a public attack on the president’s housing secretary, Julián Castro, over his department’s sales of delinquent mortgages to banks and private equity firms.”

Transgender Rights Become Flashpoint In GOP Race

April 24, 2016 at 8:26 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 88 Comments

Washington Post: “Transgender rights have become an unlikely and heated issue in the presidential campaign after North Carolina enacted a law that, among other things, mandated that people use the bathroom that corresponds to the gender on their birth certificate.”

“Cruz has seized on Trump’s assertion that the North Carolina law, which also rolled back other protections for gay, lesbian and transgender people, was unnecessary and bad for business — corporations including PayPal and Deutsche Bank scrapped plans to create jobs in the state after the legislation was enacted. Trump said there has been ‘little trouble’ with allowing people to use the bathroom they want, though he later said that states should have the power to enact their own laws. Trump also said he would let transgender reality television star Caitlyn Jenner use the women’s bathroom at his properties.”

New York Times: Two states see tourist backlash after LGBT rights legislation

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Word of the Day

Gerrymander: The term “gerrymander” refers to the practice of manipulating the boundaries of electoral districts in order to benefit a particular political party or group.

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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