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Is Trump Losing Altitude?

March 8, 2016 at 9:35 am EST By Taegan Goddard 15 Comments

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

After two poor debates, increasing attacks from all sides and a disappointing weekend, it’s a distinct possibility that Donald Trump’s campaign is finally coming back to earth. A new Washington Post/ABC News poll also suggests Trump may be weakening.

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Trump Says Convention Fight Would Be Unfair

March 8, 2016 at 8:50 am EST By Taegan Goddard 94 Comments

Donald Trump “threw cold water on the possibility of Republicans holding a brokered convention in the event he does not lock up the necessary number of delegates to secure the nomination,” The Hill reports.

Said Trump: “I think that whoever is leading at the end should sort of get it. That’s the way that democracy works.”

He added: “I don’t know that that’s going to happen. But I’ll tell you, there are going to be a lot of people that will be very upset if that doesn’t happen. I think that would be pretty unfair.”

Is the GOP Really Settling on Ted Cruz?

March 8, 2016 at 8:45 am EST By Taegan Goddard 86 Comments

David Brooks: “It’s 2 a.m. The bar is closing. Republicans have had a series of strong and nasty Trump cocktails. Suddenly Ted Cruz is beginning to look kind of attractive. At least he’s sort of predictable, and he doesn’t talk about his sexual organs in presidential debates!”

“Well, Republicans, have your standards really fallen so low so fast? Are you really that desperate? Can you remember your 8 p.m. selves, and all the hope you had about entering a campaign with such a deep bench of talented candidates?”


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Poll Suggests Romney Speech Backfired

March 8, 2016 at 8:04 am EST By Taegan Goddard 65 Comments

A new Morning Consult poll finds that 31% of GOP voters are more likely to vote for Donald Trump after Mitt Romney’s speech condemning him, while 20% are less likely and 43% said it had no impact.

Romney Gives Rubio Some Help

March 8, 2016 at 7:52 am EST By Taegan Goddard 32 Comments

New York Times: “Offering Senator Marco Rubio of Florida a much-needed boost, if not an outright endorsement, Mitt Romney has recorded get-out-the-vote calls for Mr. Rubio’s presidential campaign that are being sent to voters in the four states voting.”

Why Bloomberg Didn’t Run

March 8, 2016 at 7:46 am EST By Taegan Goddard 24 Comments

Politico: “The former mayor concluded that he’d lose in November or lose later in the House. Either way, it would probably put Donald Trump in the Oval Office.”

“The data Bloomberg’s team put together showed that any path would kill Clinton and leave the Republican nominee largely untouched — even if that Republican was Trump. Clinton has extremely high negative numbers they found, but also extremely high loyalty among Democrats. Bloomberg would win states in three-way races, and turn them green on pollster Doug Schoen’s projected map, but they were all blue states.”

Cruz Bets on Knocking Rubio Out In Florida

March 8, 2016 at 7:43 am EST By Taegan Goddard 29 Comments

“Ted Cruz is threatening to make one of the biggest gambles of the 2016 season: diving into Florida to knock off Marco Rubio,” Politico reports.

“Cruz has little chance of winning the March 15 Florida primary… The aim: pull enough voters away from Rubio to ensure Donald Trump wins the state’s 99 delegates and deny the Florida senator any pick-up opportunity elsewhere by forcing him to defend his turf. Doing that gives Trump a bigger lead in delegates, but it means Cruz has calculated he can catch up.”

Trump Holds 10-Point Lead In Illinois

March 8, 2016 at 7:37 am EST By Taegan Goddard 15 Comments

A new Chicago Tribune poll in Illinois finds Donald Trump leading the GOP field with 32%, followed by Ted Cruz at 22%, Marco Rubio at 21% and John Kasich at 18%.

The primary is on March 15.

New Anti-Trump PAC Formed

March 8, 2016 at 7:29 am EST By Taegan Goddard 14 Comments

A new political action committee called the Trump Has Tiny Hands PAC was registered with the Federal Election Committee yesterday.

Trump Way Ahead In Florida

March 8, 2016 at 7:10 am EST By Taegan Goddard 14 Comments

A new SurveyUSA poll in Florida finds Donald Trump leading the GOP field with 42%, followed by Marco Rubio at 22%, Ted Cruz at 17% and John Kasich at 10%.

Trump Trails In Head-to-Head Races with Cruz and Rubio

March 8, 2016 at 7:05 am EST By Taegan Goddard 23 Comments

A new ABC News/Washington Post poll finds Donald Trump continues to lead the GOP field nationally with 34%, followed by Ted Cruz at 25%, Marco Rubio at 18% and John Kasich at 13%.

But in hypothetical two-way matchups, Cruz leads Trump by 54% to 41% and Rubio leads Trump by 51% to 45%.

Trump’s National Lead Holds Steady

March 8, 2016 at 6:00 am EST By Taegan Goddard 4 Comments

A new NBC News/Survey Monkey poll finds Donald Trump leading the GOP race nationally with 38%, followed by Ted Cruz at 20%, Marco Rubio at 18% and John Kasich at 9%.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders, 55% to 38%.

Is Trump Finally Fading?

March 8, 2016 at 5:16 am EST By Taegan Goddard 14 Comments

New York Times: “Mr. Trump had a rough week. He faced attacks from the party establishment and criticism for his debate performance on Thursday before barely outpacing Sen. Ted Cruz on Saturday in Kentucky and Louisiana, and losing to him in Kansas and Maine, where Mr. Trump was considered a favorite.”

“But it is not clear whether he struggled to win because he had lost ground or because anti-Trump voters had consolidated around Mr. Cruz… The outcome on Tuesday could be telling. If Mr. Trump were to replicate his Super Tuesday performance, he would take about 35% of the vote in Michigan and 42% in Mississippi. If he were to lose significant ground from last week’s vote, it could present an opening for one of his rivals.”

Politico: Is Trump peaking? We’ll find out today.

Bonus Quote of the Day

March 7, 2016 at 9:32 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 101 Comments

“He took our problems in 2012 with Hispanics and made them far worse by espousing forced deportation. Looking back, we should have basically kicked him out of the party.”

— Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), quoted by Politico, on Donald Trump.

Florida Newspaper Won’t Endorse

March 7, 2016 at 7:16 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 67 Comments

The Florida Sun Sentinel will note make an endorsement for the Republican presidential primary because “the kind of person who should be running is not in the race.”

“We cannot endorse businessman Donald Trump, hometown Sen. Marco Rubio or Sen. Ted Cruz because they are unqualified to be president… Gov. John Kasich is the best of the bunch, but if you measure a candidate by the caliber of his campaign, Kasich’s lack of traction and organization make a vote for him count for little.”

Some Rubio Advisers Urging Him to Drop Out

March 7, 2016 at 7:02 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 44 Comments

“A battle is being waged within Florida Sen. Marco Rubio’s campaign about whether he should even remain in the Republican presidential race ahead of his home state primary on March 15,” CNN reports.

“Rubio himself is ‘bullish’ on his odds of winning the critical primary, despite some advisers who are less hopeful and believe a loss there would damage him politically in both the short- and long-term.”

Establishment Now Pushing for Contested Convention

March 7, 2016 at 6:05 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 50 Comments

Washington Post: “In private conversations in recent days at a Republican Governors Association retreat here in Park City and at a gathering of conservative policy minds and financiers in Sea Island, Ga., there was an emerging consensus that Trump is vulnerable and that a continued blitz of attacks could puncture the billionaire mogul’s support and leave him limping onto the convention floor.”

“But the slow-bleed strategy is risky and hinges on Trump losing Florida, Illinois and Ohio on March 15; wins in all three would set him on track to amass the majority of delegates. Even as some party figures see glimmers of hope that Trump could be overtaken, others believe any stop-Trump efforts could prove futile.”

Bloomberg Won’t Run for President

March 7, 2016 at 5:11 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 131 Comments

Michael Bloomberg, “who for months quietly laid the groundwork to run for president as an independent, will not enter the 2016 campaign,” the New York Times reports, “citing his fear that a three-way race could lead to the election of a candidate who would imperil the security and stability of the United States: Donald Trump.”

Bloomberg said that Trump has run “the most divisive and demagogic presidential campaign I can remember, preying on people’s prejudices and fears.”

He added that he was alarmed by Trump’s threats to bar Muslim immigrants from entering the country and to initiate trade wars against China and Japan, and he was disturbed by Trump’s “feigning ignorance of David Duke.”

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Can’t Win Technique: The “can’t win technique” is a campaign strategy used during the primary season.

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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