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Why Nevada Is So Hard to Poll

February 20, 2016 at 8:05 am EST By Taegan Goddard 6 Comments

Clare Malone: “For starters, when it comes to surveying public opinion, Nevada is still very much the Wild West, and pollsters may be unwilling to gamble their reputations on the state: Nevada is among the hardest places to poll in the nation, with a spotty track record to prove it.”

“Nevada populace’s is still pretty unfamiliar with caucusing, making for difficult polling work.”

“Nevadans are also notoriously hard to pin down for a survey. Many work night shifts, thanks to the state’s thriving hotel and gaming industry, meaning that they aren’t home to answer the phone in the evening, when polling calls are typically placed… And given that the state’s population is highly transitory — the bright lights and job prospects on the Strip draw people in like moths to a flame — phone calling can itself be a highly inefficient process.”

Cruz and Carson Met in a Storage Closet Last Night

February 19, 2016 at 10:02 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 75 Comments

Daily Beast: “The meeting, called by Ted Cruz in an attempt to mend fences with Ben Carson ahead of the South Carolina primary, was held on Thursday night before the Conservative Review convention. The two huddled in the unusual venue for nearly 20 to 25 minutes, as Carson’s Secret Service detail stood outside, according to a Republican operative who witnessed the strange scene.”

“Carson, whose campaign has spent the weeks after Iowa blasting Cruz for lying to voters in the Hawkeye State, agreed to meet him for five minutes, according to a source close to Carson’s campaign, to try to put to bed the issue of his dirty campaign tricks in Iowa, during which Cruz’s campaign told caucus-goers that Carson had dropped out of the race.”

Trump Hails Mass Execution of Muslims

February 19, 2016 at 10:00 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 124 Comments

At a campaign event in South Carolina, Donald Trump praised the mass execution of Muslims in the Philippines by telling an apocryphal story about General John Pershing, MSNBC reports.

Said Trump: “He took fifty bullets, and he dipped them in pig’s blood. And he had his men load his rifles and he lined up the fifty people, and they shot 49 of those people. And the fiftieth person he said ‘You go back to your people and you tell them what happened.’ And for 25 years there wasn’t a problem, okay?”


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Campaigns Flying Blind in Nevada

February 19, 2016 at 9:56 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 24 Comments

Politico: “There have been only two public surveys in Nevada this week, and pollsters warn that the caucuses — a system only recently implemented in the state and typically attended by very few Nevadans — are nearly impossible to predict. That’s frightening for those wondering whether Clinton can sustain her Nevada firewall or whether Sanders’ momentum can bring a surge of young voters to the caucuses.”

For members: We May Be Surprised in Nevada

Bush Staffers Already Looking for an Exit

February 19, 2016 at 9:53 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 26 Comments

“Several Jeb Bush campaign workers are already shopping their résumés with Florida political consultants as expectations mount inside his team that their candidate won’t push on after South Carolina,” Politico reports.

Said one Bush donor: “I can unequivocally tell you that people are looking for work, because they say they’ve been led to believe that they won’t have a job because the campaign won’t be around any longer or their jobs won’t because the campaign won’t have any money.”

High Stakes for Republicans in South Carolina

February 19, 2016 at 9:51 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 3 Comments

“The Republican presidential candidates hurtled across South Carolina on Friday, one day before the state’s primary, as polls showed the race tightening after an often nasty week of campaigning,” the New York Times reports.

“As the Republican field winnows, nearly all of the remaining contenders need to deliver strong performances. A big victory by Mr. Trump would give him momentum that could add a sheen of inevitability to his candidacy heading into the crucial March 1 contests, when 12 states vote, many of them in the South.”

For members: Setting expectations in South Carolina

Rubio Surges In New South Carolina Poll

February 19, 2016 at 3:27 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 118 Comments

A new Opinion Saavy poll in South Carolina finds Donald Trump leading with 27%, followed by Marco Rubio at 24%, Ted Cruz at 19%, Jeb Bush at 11%, Ben Carson at 8% and John Kasich at 7%.

For members: South Carolina primary cheat sheet

DNC Fundraising Effort Helped Clinton Get New Donors

February 19, 2016 at 3:08 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 54 Comments

Washington Post: “Behind the scenes at the DNC’s summer meeting last August, campaign officials for Hillary Clinton were making a hard sell to the state parties… they urged state officials to sign onto an ambitious fundraising endeavor that would allow Clinton’s presidential bid, the DNC and the state parties to scoop up and share big checks from wealthy donors. It would mark the earliest creation of a joint fundraising committee between a presidential candidate and the party, and it would be the biggest ever, thanks to a 2014 Supreme Court decision that knocked down a cap on how much donors could give to federal campaigns in a single year.”

“A record 32 state parties signed on to the fund, allowing the committee to solicit donations 130 times greater than what a supporter can give to Clinton’s campaign for the primary.”

“But the states have yet to see a financial windfall. Meanwhile, Clinton’s own campaign has been a major beneficiary, getting an infusion of low-dollar contributions through the committee at a time when rival Bernie Sanders’s army of small donors is helping him close in on her financially. The fund is run by Clinton campaign staff, and its treasurer is Clinton’s chief operating officer.”

Trump Accused of Financially Threatening Woman

February 19, 2016 at 2:38 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 58 Comments

“Donald Trump, embroiled in a long-running legal battle with former students of his defunct Trump University, has been accused in recently filed court papers of threatening to financially ruin the woman who is a lead plaintiff in the suit,” Yahoo News reports.

“Trump’s comments, according to the filings, came in a secret deposition he gave just two months ago, on Dec. 10 — the same day he was making international headlines over his pledge to ban Muslim immigrants from the country.”

Trump In the Poll Position

February 19, 2016 at 11:36 am EST By Taegan Goddard 78 Comments

Alan Abromowitz: “These trends suggest that Donald Trump should be considered a solid favorite to win the Republican presidential nomination. Since 1996, no candidate leading by such a wide margin in national polls after the New Hampshire primary has failed to win a major party nomination. The only caveat here is that Trump is a very unusual Republican frontrunner. No Republican frontrunner since Barry Goldwater in 1964 has generated anything approaching the level of resistance among Republican Party leaders and elected officials that Trump has generated.”

“So far, however, their resistance has had little impact on GOP voters, partly because the party ‘establishment’ has been unable to unite behind a single alternative to Trump and partly because many of these party leaders and elected officials dislike Ted Cruz even more than they dislike Donald Trump. The results of the South Carolina primary on Saturday and the Nevada caucuses three days later should provide further evidence about whether Trump’s march to the GOP nomination will continue unimpeded or suffer a serious setback. Based on the most recent polling in both states, the former seems much more likely than the latter.”

Setting Expectations in South Carolina

February 19, 2016 at 11:01 am EST By Taegan Goddard 9 Comments

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

The New Hampshire primary didn’t winnow the Republican presidential field very much — only Chris Christie and Carly Fiorina left the race — but South Carolina might. It’s hard to overstate how important South Carolina is for so many of the candidates.

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More Democrats See Sanders as Electable

February 19, 2016 at 9:21 am EST By Taegan Goddard 259 Comments

A new Associated Press-GfK poll finds that 72% of Democrats now believe Sen. Bernie Sanders could win the general election, a 21 percentage point increase from the last time the survey was conducted in December.

“Clinton’s campaign has argued that as voters learned more about his record, Sanders will begin to lose support. Instead, it seems that as Sanders has gotten more scrutiny, support for him has only grown. While Clinton continues to be the Democratic candidate who’s most well-liked within her own party, Sanders is gaining on her.”

How Pope Francis Helped Donald Trump

February 19, 2016 at 9:07 am EST By Taegan Goddard 27 Comments

Rick Klein: “Usually Trump needs creativity – and a certain amount of gall – to shamelessly change the subject at just the right moment. With one answer to a reporter aboard his plane, the pope did the hard work for Trump. Sure, having perhaps the world’s most prominent religious leader say you’re ‘not Christian,’ just days before a primary dominated by religious voters, may not seem helpful. But Trump has shown there’s no public feud he can’t win.”

“It’s hard to imagine evangelicals who might have supported Trump suddenly abandon him because the leader of the Catholic Church raises questions about his values and compassion. And – in classic Trump style – he used the episode to display indignation and anger. His hardline anti-immigration message gets some late airing, blocking out questions about, say, his positions on abortion and the war in Iraq.”

Your South Carolina Primary Cheat Sheet

February 19, 2016 at 8:55 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

The HuffPost Pollster polling averages in South Carolina show Donald Trump way ahead of his rivals with a close battle for second place between Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio.

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Exchange of the Day

February 19, 2016 at 8:18 am EST By Taegan Goddard 115 Comments

Hillary Clinton was interviewed by Scott Pelley on CBS News:

PELLEY: You know, in ’76, Jimmy Carter famously said, “I will not lie to you.”

CLINTON: Well, I have to tell you I have tried in every way I know how literally from my years as a young lawyer all the way through my time as secretary of state to level with the American people.

PELLEY: You talk about leveling with the American people. Have you always told the truth?

CLINTON: I’ve always tried to. Always. Always.

PELLEY: Some people are gonna call that wiggle room that you just gave yourself.

CLINTON: Well, no, I’ve always tried —

PELLEY: I mean, Jimmy Carter said, “I will never lie to you.”

CLINTON: Well, but, you know, you’re asking me to say, “Have I ever?” I don’t believe I ever have. I don’t believe I ever have. I don’t believe I ever will. I’m gonna do the best I can to level with the American people.

Why Spend Money on Ads?

February 19, 2016 at 8:17 am EST By Taegan Goddard 2 Comments

Optimus calculates that the air time Donald Trump’s Monday press conference received from cable news networks was worth more than $1 million in paid media.

Quote of the Day

February 19, 2016 at 8:14 am EST By Taegan Goddard 6 Comments

“Listen, that’s between Donald and the pope… I’m not going to get in the middle of that. I’ll leave it to the two of them to work it out.”

— Sen. Ted Cruz, quoted by the Dallas Morning News, on Donald Trump’s dispute with Pope Francis.

A Big Gap Between Insiders and Voters

February 19, 2016 at 8:12 am EST By Taegan Goddard 43 Comments

John Fund: “One factor that has sustained and elevated the rise of Trump and Sanders is a gap between what political insiders think and the views of the broader electorate. Insiders in both parties believe Trump would be a weak general-election candidate. For example, the Quinnipiac poll shows him winning only 17 percent of Hispanics, a full ten points below Mitt Romney’s 2012 showing. Ditto with Bernie Sanders. Despite a more favorable attitude toward socialism among young people, the general public is not likely to warm to a radical once the implications of his views are known. Remember, Bernie hasn’t had a single negative ad run against him from the right.”

“But the general public doesn’t share the insider view. In the Quinnipiac poll, a full 78 percent of Republicans believe Donald Trump “would have a good chance” of winning in November. Among Democrats, 69 percent believe the same thing about Bernie Sanders.”

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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