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Investigations Cloud de Blasio’s Future

April 15, 2016 at 6:00 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“It was not even a month ago that Mayor Bill de Blasio led a boisterous rally in Foley Square to celebrate the passage of key elements of his affordable housing plan. It was meant to be a pivotal moment in Mr. de Blasio’s tenure, a victory that would position him to better attend to New York City’s nuts-and-bolts needs — something of a requisite as he approaches re-election next year,” the New York Times reports.

“In the past two weeks, though, the mayor’s fortunes have swung wildly in the opposite direction. His ability and style as a manager have come under excruciating scrutiny, as four separate investigative agencies pursue inquiries into possible wrongdoing on the part of his administration.”

Is Trey Gowdy Planning a Benghazi Surprise?

April 14, 2016 at 6:38 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 124 Comments

Washington Post: “Gowdy, after blowing through several previous deadlines he set, has said to expect a final report ‘before summer,’ and Republicans say they are drafting it now. In another indication that the rollout is approaching, Gowdy last month stopped giving Democrats transcripts of witness interviews. This move, ostensibly to prevent leaks, diminishes the minority’s ability respond to allegations contained in the majority report.”

“Depending on how long the declassification review takes, the Benghazi report is on track to drop by mid-July, just before Congress recesses for the conventions and at a time when Republicans will be in need of a distraction from the Trump-Cruz standoff. If the review takes longer (they typically last from a few weeks to a several months), it could come out in September, in the campaign’s homestretch.”

“Either scenario would confirm what critics of the panel have said all along (and what Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy incautiously confirmed) — that the panel is a political exercise designed to damage Clinton.”

Unfair Primary System Actually Helps Trump

April 14, 2016 at 5:28 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 20 Comments

Harry Enten: “Donald Trump has a point… After getting shut out at the Colorado conventions, Trump has been complaining that the Republican primary process is undemocratic and rigged. I don’t agree with the ‘rigged’ part, as the rules have been known for some time, but it’s true that some Republican votes are worth a lot more than others. ‘One person, one vote’ — or the idea that every voter should have equal say in an election — is not the rule in the GOP primary system. The irony, however, is that Trump has benefited from this imbalance.”


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Trump’s Favorite Bible Verse

April 14, 2016 at 5:17 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 114 Comments

Donald Trump said his favorite Bible verse involves an “eye for an eye,” Politico reports.

Said Trump: “Well, I think many. I mean, you know, when we get into the Bible, I think many. So many. And some people—look, an eye for an eye, you can almost say that. That’s not a particularly nice thing. But you know, if you look at what’s happening to our country, I mean, when you see what’s going on with our country, how people are taking advantage of us, and how they scoff at us and laugh at us.”

How to Choose a Leader

April 14, 2016 at 12:57 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 3 Comments

In the mail: How to Choose a Leader: Machiavelli’s Advice to Citizens by Maurizio Viroli.

Polls Show Trump Can Still Win Before Convention

April 14, 2016 at 12:27 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 10 Comments

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

As story after story shows, Donald Trump’s disorganized campaign has put him at a severe disadvantage in the delegate fight with Ted Cruz. Many experts now assume Trump will not reach the 1,237 majority needed to win the nomination outright.

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Trump Way Up In Pennsylvania

April 14, 2016 at 11:45 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 36 Comments

A new Monmouth poll in Pennsylvania finds Donald Trump leads the GOP presidential race with 44%, followed by Ted Cruz at 28% and John Kasich at 23%.

Said pollster Patrick Murray: “It looks like Trump should be able to bank the 17 statewide delegates in Pennsylvania.  The real question is how the directly elected district delegates will vote at the convention in July.”

Most Trump Voters Want Him to Bolt Party

April 14, 2016 at 11:03 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 90 Comments

A new CBS News poll finds 63% of Donald Trump’s supporters say that if he earns more delegates than the other candidates but does not become the party nominee, then he should run as an independent or third party candidate.

Among Republican primary voters overall, a third think in that case he should run independently.

House Races Move Towards Democrats

April 14, 2016 at 9:30 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 58 Comments

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “This week we’re making 14 House rating changes, with all but one of them favoring the Democrats. This has been a common theme for us in recent weeks. Two weeks ago, we offered ratings of a potential Hillary Clinton-versus-Donald Trump presidential race, which tilted the competitive Electoral College states toward the Democrats. Last week, we moved six Senate races and two gubernatorial races toward the Democrats. This is mostly because of the increasingly likely odds of the GOP nominating Trump or Cruz for president.”

“However, these House changes do not represent a massive upgrade of Democratic odds for taking the House. Many of them simply take some already unlikely targets for Republicans off our list of competitive races, and they don’t change the overall House prospects all that much.”

What Happens to Rubio’s Delegates?

April 14, 2016 at 8:43 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 13 Comments

MSNBC: “When he suspended his campaign, Marco Rubio said he wasn’t running for president but urged local GOP officials to let him keep his delegates… It turns out, however, that Rubio won’t get to keep them all. The Florida senator’s strategy is hitting some turbulence… because several state parties have determined Rubio does not get to hold onto all his delegates. Only 34 of the 172 delegates Rubio won in the primaries will be immediately up for grabs on the first ballot in Cleveland. That development is opening up a fierce competition to win these lapsed Rubio delegates, which are located in Oklahoma, Minnesota and Louisiana.”

Contested Convention May Alter Veepstakes

April 14, 2016 at 8:09 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 42 Comments

CNN: “Traditionally, by this point in the election cycle, the likely nominee would have begun planning their coronation at the convention and gotten started on interviewing and vetting potential vice presidential nominees to share the spotlight. In fact, vice presidential nominees are often voted on by delegates before the presidential candidates, saving the top of the ticket for the last night of the convention.”

“But this year is anything but traditional, and that means upending the usual way a nominee would go about picking a ticket mate as well as how the convention will go about confirming them.”

Ryan Becomes GOP’s Top Fundraiser

April 14, 2016 at 8:04 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 10 Comments

House Speaker Paul Ryan “doesn’t want to be the Republican nominee in this year’s presidential election, but his high-profile presence and behind-the-scenes work raising money for the GOP could position him to seize the spotlight four years from now,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“Mr. Ryan raised $17.2 million in the first three months of 2016, outpacing his predecessor as speaker, John Boehner, as GOP fundraiser-in-chief… More than $11 million of the money Mr. Ryan raised from January through March went to the National Republican Congressional Committee, the House GOP campaign arm, surpassing the $7 million record set by Mr. Boehner in the second quarter of 2012.”

Politico: “Paul Ryan’s massive $17 million fundraising haul this quarter was fueled by some of the nation’s richest people and large corporate political action committees, which cut five- and six-figure checks to the speaker’s burgeoning political operation.”

Inside Cruz’s Strategy to Win from Behind

April 14, 2016 at 8:01 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 11 Comments

Washington Post: “Cruz’s decision to lavish attention on parochial power brokers 3,000 miles away from the next big contest underscored his novel approach to the final three months of the Republican presidential race: He is effectively creating his own primary calendar, map and electorate in hopes of cobbling together enough support to prevent front-runner Donald Trump from clinching the nomination outright.”

“It is a strategy born of necessity for the senator from Texas, who now acknowledges that his best path to the nomination is through a contested convention decided by thousands of little-known activists.”

Trump Meets with Megyn Kelly

April 14, 2016 at 7:19 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 22 Comments

Fox News anchor Megyn Kelly said that her meeting with Donald Trump allowed the two to “clear the air,” The Hill reports.

Said Kelly: “The meeting was at my request and Mr. Trump was gracious enough to agree to it. We met for about an hour, just the two of us, and had a chance to clear the air.”

She added: “Mr. Trump and I discussed the possibility of an interview, and I hope we will have news to announce on that soon.”

Trump and Cruz Both Less Popular Than Romney

April 14, 2016 at 7:09 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 23 Comments

A new Washington Post-ABC News poll finds that 31% of Americans have a favorable view of Donald Trump while 67% are unfavorable — nearly identical to an early March Post-ABC poll which found he would be the most disliked major-party nominee since at least 1984.

Ted Cruz fares better with 36% favorable and 53% unfavorable among the public at-large; his strongly unfavorable mark is 20 percentage-points below Trump’s level (33% for Cruz vs. 53% for Trump).

Both Trump and Cruz are less popular than Mitt Romney at this point in the 2012 campaign, a year in which the eventual Republican nominee was haunted by weak personal ratings.

Cruz Suggests He’s Already Considering Running Mates

April 14, 2016 at 6:31 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 29 Comments

Sen. Ted Cruz suggested he is already in the process of assessing potential vice presidential candidates, when asked whether he would consider a unity ticket with Marco Rubio, Politico reports.

Said Cruz: “Anyone would naturally look at Marco as one of the people who would be a terrific person to consider for VP. We’re in the process now of considering a number of different options.”

Trump Campaign Manager Will Not Be Prosecuted

April 13, 2016 at 7:57 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 39 Comments

A Florida prosecutor has decided not to prosecute Trump campaign manager Corey Lewandowski for battery after a run-in with a journalist, Politico reports.

“Many lawyers said they just didn’t think jurors would think of this case as a battery, even though it met the technical threshold for the crime under Florida law, which essentially defines battery as unwanted touching.”

Bonus Quote of the Day

April 13, 2016 at 7:48 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 28 Comments

“This is going to blow over. I believe this is some frustration that has bubbled up.”

— RNC chairman Reince Priebus, quoted by Politico, downplaying Donald Trump’s latest tirade against the Republican Party while adding that he will “soon get over it.”

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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