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A Nightmare for Hillary Clinton

February 10, 2016 at 9:35 am EST By Taegan Goddard 291 Comments

First Read: “Bernie Sanders bested Clinton by 22 points (!!!) in a state she carried in the 2008 presidential contest. And the exit poll numbers seem even worse, even among the groups Clinton is supposedly strong with: Sanders beat her among women by 11 points (55%-44%), Democrats (52%-48%), and moderates (58%-39%). He crushed her among his core groups, winning young voters (83%-16%), independents (72%-25), and liberals (60%-39%). And then there are these terrible numbers: Clinton lost among Democrats caring the most about honest and trustworthiness by 86 points (91%-5%), and she even lost among the Dems who want their candidate to care about people like them by 65 points (82%-17%).”

“Warning sign: Caring about people like them is the Bill Clinton brand, folks!!! The silver lining for Hillary: The map is about to get a lot better for her (see below). But as we wrote yesterday, it will get worse first — Sanders is going to continue to outraise her, the Nevada caucuses (on Feb. 23) are going to be closer than anyone thought, and the outside forces are set to be unbearable (Bloomberg! Biden! Shakeup!).”

Wonk Wire: Bernie’s brand is the future of the Democratic party

Donald Trump Is the Republican Party

February 10, 2016 at 9:23 am EST By Taegan Goddard 9 Comments

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

One thing is striking when looking through the New Hampshire primary results: Donald Trump won almost every education level and every income level. His support was actually evenly divided across all “lanes” of the Republican electorate.

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Democrats Focus Next on Nevada

February 10, 2016 at 8:43 am EST By Taegan Goddard 53 Comments

Jon Ralston: “Nevada Democrats caucus on Feb. 20, so Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders will descend on the state this week, along with national media types eager to roll the dice, gamble on the future and see which campaign craps out.”

“The Democratic caucus in ’08 was vicious between Clinton and Obama. But I’m not sure I have ever seen such a pitched battle for one demographic as those two battling over the Hispanic vote, including putting a student college leader in the crossfire. The Hispanic vote was only about 14 percent of the caucus turnout in ’08, but in a close race it could be pivotal… I still think Hillary has a slight edge over Bernie because of her superior staff and appeal to minorities, but it could be close.”

Meanwhile, BuzzFeed reports the Clinton campaign is already forecasting a closer race in Nevada.


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Clinton Taps Ex-Obama Operative

February 10, 2016 at 8:30 am EST By Taegan Goddard 18 Comments

“Hillary Clinton’s campaign is planning to formalize a key role for Jen O’Malley Dillon, the former deputy campaign manager for President Obama’s 2012 re-election campaign,” a source confirms to NBC News.

“The news comes on the heels of a significant loss for Clinton in New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation primary Tuesday night.”

Trump Proves His Supporters Will Actually Vote

February 10, 2016 at 8:30 am EST By Taegan Goddard 36 Comments

“Donald Trump served notice on Tuesday to those who have refused to take his 2016 White House campaign seriously: The celebrity real-estate developer and former reality show host is no joke,” Reuters reports.

“While Trump had been expected to win New Hampshire’s nominating contest, he swamped the Republican field by almost 20 points, demonstrating that his passionate, anti-establishment supporters could be relied on to show up and vote when it counts.”

CNN: “Trump isn’t playing by anyone’s rules, and it didn’t hurt him here. After a close second-place finish in Iowa and a big win in New Hampshire, and with a clear lead in the national polls, it’s hard to argue that Donald Trump isn’t the Republican presidential front-runner.”

Also interesting: 270 to Win notes Trump significantly outperformed the polls.

Bush Plans Scorched-Earth Attack on Rivals

February 10, 2016 at 7:19 am EST By Taegan Goddard 55 Comments

“Jeb Bush is already laying the groundwork for a brutal South Carolina campaign against establishment rivals John Kasich and Marco Rubio,” Politico reports.

“In an internal memo circulated late Tuesday evening, the campaign distributed talking points to top campaign aides and surrogates, highlighting lines of attack they plan to take against both candidates.”

Quote of the Day

February 10, 2016 at 7:01 am EST By Taegan Goddard 31 Comments

“This campaign is not dead.”

— Jeb Bush, quoted by Politico, after finishing fourth in New Hampshire.

Bush and Rubio In Race to the Bottom

February 10, 2016 at 6:55 am EST By Taegan Goddard 10 Comments

Politico: “The two warring Floridians spent much of the New Hampshire campaign eyeing each other, with Bush blasting Rubio in millions of dollars in ads. But in the end, both of them ended up finishing behind Donald Trump, John Kasich, and, barring a last-second shift in the counting, Ted Cruz.”

“Now, friends and longtime allies agree, both Rubio and Bush are leaving the primary so badly battered that the chances of either of the rival Floridians nabbing the GOP nomination are tougher than ever.”

Said one Rubio adviser: “South Carolina is gonna be a bloodbath.”

Mike Allen: “Rubio is bleeding: Marco Roboto moment was no paper cut. A reality unthinkable four days ago: Marco could be dead if he doesn’t bounce back in S.C. primary 10 days from now, Feb. 20.”

A Terrible Night for the GOP Establishment

February 10, 2016 at 6:55 am EST By Taegan Goddard 25 Comments

Politico: “Far from winnowing the crowded field of mainstream GOP contenders and allowing it to unify around a standard-bearer, New Hampshire thrust it further into chaos. Marco Rubio, after taking steps last week to coalesce the backing of the party’s upper echelons, saw his momentum halted in the state, which punished him for delivering an overly scripted debate performance.”

“The establishment lane is now more crowded than ever, with Rubio, Jeb Bush, and New Hampshire runner-up John Kasich heading for a brutal fight in South Carolina – a state known for its rough-and-tumble political culture. Chris Christie, who was also competing for establishment support, is reassessing his campaign’s future.”

For members: The Worst Possible Result for the GOP Establishment

Gilmore Admits He Won’t Win

February 10, 2016 at 6:54 am EST By Taegan Goddard 14 Comments

Jim Gilmore conceded he won’t win the Republican presidential nomination, USA Today reports.

Said Gilmore: “I entered the race having been out of office for a considerable amount of time. I wasn’t a sitting governor, my father wasn’t president, and my brother wasn’t president.”

He told one supporter: “I don’t think we’ll win this thing, but let’s see if we can get some recognition.”

The Democratic Primary Will Soon Be About Race

February 10, 2016 at 6:52 am EST By Taegan Goddard 18 Comments

Politico: “If Sanders is truly going to become a Barack Obama-style Clinton-slayer of 2016, he knows he’s going to need to start racking up Obama-level support among non-white voters, and quickly, because the Democratic primary is about to come down to race.”

“The Sanders campaign understands this, which is why the first campaign stop after his blowout victory in New Hampshire is a breakfast meeting Wednesday with the Rev. Al Sharpton in Harlem’s iconic Sylvia’s restaurant.”

Christie Heads Home to New Jersey

February 9, 2016 at 10:39 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 55 Comments

Gov. Chris Christie said he is taking a pause from the campaign trail to “take a deep breath” and evaluate his presidential campaign’s future after a poor showing in New Hampshire, The Hill reports.

Said Christie: “We are going to go home to New Jersey tomorrow and we are going to take a deep breath, see what the final results are tonight, because that matters.”

Quote of the Day

February 9, 2016 at 10:19 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 53 Comments

“It’s on me. I did not do well on Saturday night, and it will never happen again.”

— Sen. Marco Rubio, quoted by CNN, explaining his poor performance in the New Hampshire primary.

The Worst Possible Result for the GOP Establishment

February 9, 2016 at 10:05 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 16 Comments

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

For the Republican establishment, having Donald Trump win the New Hampshire primary by a wide margin is a big problem. He’ll continue to dominate the race as he has for months. But the bigger problem is that there is no viable alternative for GOP leaders to rally around.

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Trump and Sanders Win New Hampshire

February 9, 2016 at 8:01 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 342 Comments

The television networks have called the New Hampshire presidential primaries:

Donald Trump wins the Republican race, with John Kasich in second and Ted Cruz and Jeb Bush vying for third place.

Bernie Sanders won the Democratic race convincingly.

Exit Polls Show Big Wins by Trump and Sanders

February 9, 2016 at 7:05 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 110 Comments

Decision Desk HQ released it’s own exit polls as polls closed and found Donald Trump leading with 36%, followed by Ted Cruz at 15%, John Kasich at 15%, Marco Rubio at 11% and Jeb Bush at 10%.

On the Democratic side, Bernie Sanders leads Hillary Clinton 62% to 37%.

The network exit polls show Trump at 32%, Kasich at 16%, Cruz at 14%, Rubio at 12%, Bush at 10% and Christie at 9%

On the Democratic side, Sanders leads Clinton, 58% to 42%.

Half of New Hampshire Voters Decided Since Debate

February 9, 2016 at 5:48 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 41 Comments

Early exit polls in New Hampshire find that nearly half of Republican primary voters say they finally picked their candidate only within the last few days, or after Saturday’s Republican presidential debate, according to ABC News.

Also interesting: Nearly half of Republicans say they’re looking for a candidate from “outside the political establishment.”

Keep an Eye on Jeb

February 9, 2016 at 4:59 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 21 Comments

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

GOP strategist Alex Castellanos emails with his thoughts ahead of the New Hampshire primary:

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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