Jack Shafer: “It would stand to reason that the documentation of Trump’s lies… would hobble his candidacy. Yet it appears to have had little to no effect. What to conclude from this? Perhaps … Trump supporters don’t know about the fact-checker’s findings, which seems wildly unlikely given the saturation coverage his lies have enjoyed. My guess is that Trump supporters don’t believe and just don’t care what the fact checkers say.”
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Top Republicans Won’t Rule Out Backing Trump
Boston Globe: “But for all the precepts Trump has ignored during this campaign, his fellow Republicans are grappling with a traditional one: partisan loyalty. Few top Republicans — even those who denounce his comments and policies — appear ready to swear off supporting him in a general election.”
“While Trump continues to drive establishment Republicans to distraction, just a handful have declared they would not support him if he becomes the GOP nominee. Republicans may be uncomfortable or offended by Trump’s bombast, but they are clearly nervous about turning their backs on the elements of their party showing the most energy this campaign.”
Now It’s Even Easier for Candidates to Help Super PACs
The FEC “has quietly given the green light to federal candidates who want to solicit contributions for super PACs by meeting in small groups — so small that there can be just two other people in the room,” the Washington Post reports.
“In addition, the little-noticed advisory opinion gives permission to a candidate’s campaign consultant and other aides to solicit large donations for a super PAC, as long as they make clear that they are not making the request at the direction of the candidate.”
Trump Maintains Lead in New Hampshire
A new American Research Group survey in New Hampshire finds Donald Trump leading the GOP presidential field with 21%, followed by Marco Rubio at 15%, John Kasich at 13%, Chris Christ at 12%, Ted Cruz at 10%, Jeb Bush at 6%, Ben Carson at 6%, and Carly Fiorina at 5%.
On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton edges Bernie Sanders, 46% to 43%.
Trump and Cruz Tied in Iowa
A new Gravis Marketing survey in Iowa finds Donald Trump and Ted Cruz deadlocked at 31% each in the GOP presidential race, followed by Marco Rubio at 9%, Ben Carson at 7%, Jeb Bush at 4% and Mike Huckabee at 4%.
In the Democratic race, Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders, 49% to 31%.
Clinton Casts a Wide Net for Donors
“Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign is building the most expansive fundraising network in recent memory, taking its prospecting far beyond the usual Democratic strongholds on the East and West coasts,” The Hill reports.
“Those familiar with Clinton’s fundraising operation say she’s tapping smaller cities to avoid running dry in California and New York, which have only so many Hollywood producers and trial lawyers. One source familiar with her schedule noted that many of the places Clinton is mining for cash are in Super Tuesday states, allowing her to double up with campaign events and fundraisers.”
We’re About to Find Out If Trump Is the Real Deal
“Donald Trump, the poll leader for the last five months in the Republican presidential race, is about to find out whether he has permanently changed the rules of politics, or if some of those old standards still linger,” the New York Times reports.
“His long-promised ‘next phase’ defined by new spending, such as a wave of television commercials, has so far failed to materialize, week after week. His advisers have not revealed the existence of any pollsters on their staff or any advertising team. He has no real research operation to examine his own vulnerabilities or those of his opponents and, based on Federal Election Commission filings, little in the way of a voter contact operation to identify and turn out his supporters.”
Politico: 13 times Trump looked finished but wasn’t
Quote of the Day
“A liberal Democrat would say Barack Obama has been a pretty influential president. He got Dodd-Frank, the stimulus, the deal with Iran. All these things that they were able to get done, they’d look at it and say, ‘This guy’s been pretty consequential.'”
— Sen. Marco Rubio, quoted by the New York Times, embracing the comparison many make between him and Obama.
Bernie vs. The Media
Sen. Bernie Sanders’s “long-simmering disdain for the media seems to have reached a boiling point,” the Washington Post reports.
“With the first-in-the-nation Iowa caucuses barely five weeks off, hardly a stop goes by where the Democratic presidential hopeful doesn’t ding those chronicling his race against front-runner Hillary Clinton.”
“Such bashing is far more common for Republicans, who have long complained about a liberal bias among journalists… For Sanders, the complaints are more likely to be about the corporate giants who own news outlets. While those at his rallies lap up such critiques, experts say Sanders’s message is less likely to win over the more moderate Democrats he needs in order to catch Clinton.”
Rubio Gets Caught on Shifting Immigration Position
Wall Street Journal: “Throughout the Florida Republican’s career in public office, Mr. Rubio has struggled to balance the competing demands of immigrant-rights advocates and the hard-liners who oppose any attempt to legalize undocumented immigrants… In trying to navigate the competing demands of warring factions in the immigration debate, Mr. Rubio is at risk of pleasing no one, making this issue one of the single biggest impediments in his quest for the presidency.”
Political Animals
In the mail: Political Animals: How Our Stone-Age Brain Gets in the Way of Smart Politics by Rick Shenkman.
Scientific American: “In this presidential election year, historian and journalist Shenkman offers a timely look into psychological patterns that drive political behavior. He describes how irrelevant events such as shark attacks, droughts and sports outcomes can stimulate instincts that change how we vote. Football fans whose teams win, for example, are more likely to support incumbent candidates. Shenkman details, in particular, four ways that people behave irrationally when it comes to politics: we become apathetic about our government, we incorrectly size up our leaders, we punish politicians who tell hard truths and we fail to apply empathy to political decisions.”
Highly recommended.
Rubio Dips In Year End Polls
Bloomberg: “Marco Rubio is dipping in national polls going into the final week of 2015. While the drop is slight, and far from irreversible less than six weeks away from the Feb. 1 Iowa caucuses, where the first votes will be cast in the fight for the Republican presidential nomination, it is happening at a time when the U.S. senator from Florida needs to be moving in the opposite direction.”
For members: Why Rubio may not be the GOP establishment favorite.
Huckabee Says Voters Will Abandon GOP
Mike Huckabee said that the Republican Party is at risk of losing its members if lawmakers continue to make decisions that ignore their values, The Hill reports.
Said Huckabee: “You sense it on the campaign trail. One of the things you see is a seething rage… The Republicans folded. That’s why people in the Republican Party are just bolting for the door.”
Rubio Insists He’s Not Running a Passive Campaign
Sen. Marco Rubio outlined his campaign trail activity to donors in a conference call and “pushed back on the recent media narrative that he’s running a passive campaign,” Politico reports.
“He also revealed that he now had about 100 full-time staffers, most of whom, he said, are conducting voter contact. And he mentioned his upcoming swing through Iowa, a three-day bus tour with seven events across the state.”
Erik Eisele, reporter for the Conway Daily Sun: “We had roughly 20 minutes with him on Monday, and it was like watching a computer algorithm designed to cover talking points. He said a lot, but at the same time said nothing. It was like someone wound him up, pointed him towards the doors and pushed play. If there was a human side to senator, a soul, it didn’t come across through… Marco Rubio is a man so stuck on script it doesn’t even matter when the cameras are off.”
Carson Reverses Course on Campaign Shakeup
Politico: “Ben Carson moved quickly to shut off speculation about a high-level campaign shakeup Wednesday, just hours after he stoked the notion of wholesale personnel changes in a pair of interviews in his Maryland home. In a late-scheduled appearance on CNN, Carson distanced himself from interviews … in which he hinted that a shakeup was imminent, comments that were echoed and augmented by aides who applauded him for being back in charge of his campaign.”
Quote of the Day
“They love you know, bombastic remarks, they love silly remarks. So I think this is more of an indictment of the media, actually, than it is of Trump.”
— Sen. Bernie Sanders, quoted by Politico, saying Donald Trump is “very smart” at manipulating the media.
Huckabee Will Quit If Not Top 3 in Iowa
Mike Huckabee — who’s been a long-shot candidate relegated to the undercard primary debates — said if he doesn’t finish in the top three in Iowa, he’ll end his campaign, Politico reports.
Said Huckabee: “If we can’t come within striking distance of the victory or win it, then I think we recognize that it’s going to be hard to take that onto the other states.”
Christie and Bush Plead with New Hampshire Voters
New York Times: “Now, as Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey and Jeb Bush grasp for some way to dissuade the proud New Hampshire electorate from supporting Mr. Trump, they are turning to a new, blunter instrument: guilt.”
“The don’t-screw-this-up pleadings to honor what many here see as their civic birthright reflect how anxious Mr. Bush and Mr. Christie are to find some way to bring down Mr. Trump, who leads his nearest competitor in New Hampshire by double digits in polls.”
