No Precedent for Leaving Supreme Court Vacancy
SCOTUSblog: “In the wake of the death of Justice Antonin Scalia, questions have arisen about whether there is a standard practice of not nominating and confirming Supreme Court Justices during a presidential election year. The historical record does not reveal any instances since at least 1900 of the president failing to nominate and/or the Senate failing to confirm a nominee in a presidential election year because of the impending election. In that period, there were several nominations and confirmations of Justices during presidential election years.”
“In two instances in the twentieth century, presidents were not able to nominate and confirm a successor during an election year. But neither reflects a practice of leaving a seat open on the Supreme Court until after the election.”
Trump Holds Wide Lead in South Carolina
A new CBS News poll in South Carolina finds Donald Trump leading the GOP race with 42%, followed by Ted Cruz at 20%, Marco Rubio at 15%, John Kasich at 9%, Jeb Bush at 6% and Ben Carson at 6%.
In the Democratic race, Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders, 59% to 40%.
Did Trump Really Lose the Debate?
James Hohmann: “There is widespread consensus that Donald Trump had a very bad night in Greenville. The question is whether that will cause lasting damage, or if he continues to be coated in Teflon.”
“One of the problems for leaders of the chattering class is that they have been so wrong about Trump so many times for so many months that everyone is gun-shy about predicting his impending decline.”
Rick Klein: “Predictions of Trump doing damage to his own campaign have been almost comically wrong over the past six months … and perhaps Trump is indeed a better student than everyone in the political class has realized. But on a night where the importance of the race was highlighted anew, Trump’s rivals could portray him as flunking a big test.”
A CBS News/GfK Knowledge Panel survey finds 32% think Rubio won, followed by Trump at 24%, Kasich at 19%, Cruz at 12%, Carson at 8% and Bush at 5%.
Scalia’s Death Sets Off Epic Battle
New York Times: “Within hours of Justice Scalia’s death, both sides began laying the groundwork for what could be a titanic confirmation struggle fueled by ideological interest groups. The surprise opening also jolted the presidential campaign hours before a Republican debate in South Carolina, shifting the conversation toward the priorities each candidate would have in making such a selection.”
Los Angeles Times: “The battle lines were drawn within minutes of the death announcement, with Obama saying he would nominate a successor and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, who controls the schedule, saying that the Senate should not take up an appointment in the 11 months remaining in the president’s term. Republican presidential candidates immediately backed McConnell. Democrats objected, arguing that selecting a justice is Obama’s job — and deciding in prompt fashion is the Senate’s.”
For members: How Hillary Clinton could respond
Democrats See Gift in GOP Blocking Court Nominee
New York Times: “Democrats, sensing a prime opportunity to make Republicans pay a political price for bowing to their hard-liners, moved quickly on Saturday to stir up outrage from their own partisans.”
Said Hillary Clinton: “It is outrageous that Republicans in the Senate and on the campaign trail have already pledged to block any replacement that President Obama nominates.”
“Republican officials privately acknowledged that refusing to bring Mr. Obama’s appointment to a vote could prove difficult to sustain, particularly with the Senate controlled by a handful of Republican incumbents from moderate and liberal-leaning states. It was notable that Senator Rob Portman of Ohio, who faces re-election this year, made no pledge about blocking Mr. Obama’s pick in his statement regarding Justice Scalia’s death.”
Quote of the Day
“Joseph Stalin said, If you want to bring America down, you have to undermine three things: Our spiritual life, our patriotism, and our morality.”
— Ben Carson, quoted by CNN during last night’s GOP debate, using a fake quote.
The Nastiest GOP Debate
Politico: “The free-for-all unmasked the dynamics that have largely played out by press release or in one-off one-liners on the campaign trail. It’s a sign of the rising stakes in South Carolina, which could define the contours of the race over the next few months as a three-way contest among Trump, Cruz and an establishment-backed candidate like Rubio, Bush or Kasich. Ben Carson, a retired neurosurgeon who has trailed in polls, is also hoping the squabbling helps lift his soft-spoken brand, though he had few opportunities to stand out during the debate.”
“It’s unclear which blows hit their mark and who will emerge at the top of the battered heap of rivals. But each candidate urgently needed a strong showing.”
Reaction to the Republican Debate
If Donald Trump wins the GOP nomination, the Republican party as we know it is over.
In tonight’s debate, Trump blamed George W. Bush for 9/11 happening on his watch and confirmed that he would have impeached him for invading Iraq. Polls show that both George W. Bush and the Iraq war are still very popular with Republicans. But if everything we’ve seen over the last nine months holds, it seems likely that Trump will get 30% of the vote in South Carolina no matter what he says.
Jeb Bush was high energy tonight and took every swing he could at Trump. He was fighting like it was his last chance. He even took shots at John Kasich. If this version of Bush had been running for the last year, it might be a very different race today. It was his strongest debate by far.
Ted Cruz stayed away from a much-anticipated battle with Trump until the last half hour when it turned into one of the nastiest exchanges of the debates so far. Cruz attacked Trump hard, but Trump won. Cruz also went after Marco Rubio hard on immigration but didn’t win that exchange either. Perhaps Cruz was thrown off his game at the very beginning when John Dickerson corrected him on facts about Supreme Court nominations.
Rubio was better tonight than the last debate — a low bar, of course — but he still talks on 1.5X speed. It makes him sound like… yes, a robot. He landed some good punches and generally avoided damage by staying out of a fight with Trump.
Kasich is getting better at these debates but unless he has a stronger finish in South Carolina, it’s hard to see where he goes. He seems like a nice guy but he’s simply out of step with his party on too many issues.
Ben Carson needs to end his campaign now. He adds nothing to these debates with his repeated call outs for his website.
The bottom line: I’m not sure any candidate won this debate. It was like, as First Read foreshadowed last month, the final scene in Reservoir Dogs “where everyone has their weapons pointed at each other and, well, a lot of people are going to die.”
One final thought: The audience was an abomination. Letting them hoot and holler after every answer made the debate feel like it was taking place in a Roman coliseum. It was a total embarrassment for the Republican party.
The GOP Presidential Debate
The Republican presidential candidates meet for their ninth debate at 9 p.m. ET in South Carolina.
- Will Donald Trump finally come under fire from his rivals?
- Can Marco Rubio rebound after a disastrous performance in the last debate?
- Will news of Justice Antonin Scalia’s death change the course of the GOP race?
The debate will be broadcast and streamed live on CBS News.
How Clinton Could Respond on Supreme Court Vacancy
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Trump and Clinton Way Ahead in South Carolina
A new American Research Group poll in South Carolina finds Donald Trump leading the GOP presidential pack with 35%, followed by John Kasich at 15%, Marco Rubio at 14%, Ted Cruz at 12%, Jeb Bush at 10% and Ben Carson at 2%.
In the Democratic race, Hillary Clinton is crushing Bernie Sanders, 65% to 27%.
McConnell Says Senate Will Wait to Replace Scalia
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) “believes the U.S. Senate should wait 11 months for the next president to be sworn in before confirming a Supreme Court justice to replace the late Justice Antonin Scalia,” CBS News reports.
Said McConnell: “The American people should have a voice in the selection of their next Supreme Court Justice. Therefore, this vacancy should not be filled until we have a new president.”
Antonin Scalia Is Dead
Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia has died at a Texas ranch at the age of 79, Politico reports.
San Antonio Express News: “Scalia arrived at the ranch on Friday and attended a private party with about 40 people. When he did not appear for breakfast, a person associated with the ranch went to his room and found a body… A federal official who asked not to be named said there was no evidence of foul play and it appeared that Scalia died of natural causes.”
Sen. Ted Cruz called Scalia a “hero” and suggested “that the next President names his replacement.”
Rick Hasen: Justice Scalia’s Death and Implications for the 2016 Election, the Supreme Court and the Nation
Clinton Says Sanders Would Be Threat to Obama Legacy
“Hillary Clinton forcefully attacked Senator Bernie Sanders before a heavily black audience Friday, highlighting his criticism of President Obama, the Affordable Care Act and for what she suggested was a single-minded focus on economic fairness at the expense of racial justice,” the New York Times reports.
“One day after the two squared off at a debate that emphasized issues relating to race and gender, Mrs. Clinton made clear that she intends to run in this state’s primary by effectively seeking Mr. Obama’s third term — and claiming Mr. Sanders would be a threat to the first black president’s accomplishments.”
Internal Tracker Shows Trump Leading in South Carolina
Bush super PAC operative Mike Murphy posts South Carolina tracking numbers another GOP campaign: Donald Trump leads with 34%, followed by Ted Cruz at 17%, Jeb Bush at 12%, Marco Rubio at 10% and John Kasich “in single digits.”
How the Primaries are Rigged Against Sanders
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Carson Sees Fundraising Resurgence
Ben Carson “has raised about $2 million since the Feb. 1 Iowa caucuses, a startling windfall for a campaign that finished a distant-fourth in Iowa and dead last among eight active contenders in New Hampshire,” Politico reports.
“The haul is all the more startling because the campaign has been floundering for months… But a funny thing happened on the way to the Iowa caucus: Just as the vote was beginning, operatives and surrogates for Ted Cruz rapidly spread a false rumor that Carson would be leaving the Republican contest… The backlash from Carson loyalists was fierce, and the doctor’s campaign says it’s at the core of its sudden fundraising resurgence.”
