Trump, Kasich Running Close In Ohio
A new Public Policy Polling survey in Ohio finds Donald Trump leading the GOP presidential race with 38%, followed by John Kasich at 35%, Ted Cruz at 15% and Marco Rubio at 5%.
Key finding: “The bottom has really fallen out on Marco Rubio’s image. For much of the year he’s been among the best liked of the Republican candidates, even if he wasn’t voters’ first choice. Now he’s the least popular candidate, with only 33% of voters seeing him favorable to 51% who have an unfavorable opinion.”
Cruz Grabbing Support from Collapsing Rubio
Nate Cohn: “There was a big shift in the Republican race over the last few days: Ted Cruz surged, almost entirely at Marco Rubio’s expense.”
“The Cruz surge was the clearest sign yet that Donald Trump might indeed be at a disadvantage in a one-on-one race. Viewed that way, Saturday was a bad night for Mr. Trump. Not only did the primaries and caucuses that day suggest he could lose if the field dwindled to one opponent, but the results also probably made a one-on-one race more likely by elevating Mr. Cruz at Mr. Rubio’s expense.”
“But not all is gloomy for Mr. Trump. The results made it likelier that he would face a candidate, Mr. Cruz, with serious limitations in the blue states that dominate the second half of the primary season.”
Trump Maintains Lead in Florida
A new Monmouth poll in Florida finds Donald Trump leading the GOP field with 38%, followed by Marco Rubio at 30%, Ted Cruz at 17% and John Kasich at 10%.
Said pollster Patrick Murray: “Rubio is within shooting distance in his home state with a week to go in this volatile nomination contest. It is telling, though, that Rubio is not even the clear victor in a direct face off with Trump. There goes the argument that Rubio would triumph if only it were a two person race.”
Cruz Set to Unveil Senate Endorsements
“Ted Cruz’s colleagues may loathe him, but they seem to have found somebody else they dislike more. With the prospect of Donald Trump’s nomination looming over the GOP, Cruz is set to unveil endorsements from more than four senators this week,” National Review reports.
“Until now, Cruz had failed to earn the endorsement of even a single Senate colleague, a fact Trump and other presidential rivals have been quick to use against the Texas freshman. But as many senators see Marco Rubio’s prospects dimming, some are beginning to make peace with Cruz, convinced that he’s the only candidate who can stop Trump.”
Kasich Now Has a Better Chance Than Rubio
According to PredictWise, Donald Trump has a 67% chance to win the Republican nomination, followed by Ted Cruz at 17%, John Kasich at 8% and Marco Rubio at 7%.
Two Very Bad Choices for Republicans
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Trump’s Lead May Be Shrinking in Michigan
A new Monmouth poll in Michigan finds Donald Trump currently has the support of 36% of likely GOP primary voters, followed by Ted Cruz at 23%, John Kasich at 21% and Marco Rubio at 13%.
Key finding: “In interviews conducted Thursday and Friday, Trump held a solid lead with 39% support compared to 22% for Cruz, 17% for Kasich, and 14% for Rubio. The race was much tighter in Saturday and Sunday interviews at 32% for Trump, 26% for Kasich, 25% for Cruz, and 12% for Rubio.”
More Latinos Seek Citizenship to Vote Against Trump
New York Times: “Over all, naturalization applications increased by 11 percent in the 2015 fiscal year over the year before, and jumped 14 percent during the six months ending in January, according to federal figures. The pace is picking up by the week, advocates say, and they estimate applications could approach 1 million in 2016, about 200,000 more than the average in recent years.”
Kasich Said He Could Win Brokered Convention
Gov. John Kasich told the Washington Post that he would not necessarily need to build a delegate lead to win the Republican presidential nomination at the convention.
Said Kasich: “The delegates will be smart, and they’ll figure it out. I was at a convention where Ronald Reagan challenged Gerald Ford. Ford won and the party was unified. But, you know, to say – I have more than you, therefore I should get it? Go out and earn it! Don’t be whining about how it’s gonna work. Go get what you need to be the legitimate winner!”
Gingrich Says Romney Killed His Chances to be Nominee
Newt Gingrich blasted Mitt Romney’s speech denouncing Donald Trump as “vitriolic and nasty,” Politico reports.
Said Gingrich: “I think if Mitt had really wanted to maneuver for the nomination, he wouldn’t have given the speech he gave last week. Because that speech was so harsh and so intense that it virtually guaranteed that I think both for the Trump people but also for a lot of the Cruz people, that Romney would just plain be unacceptable.”
Quote of the Day
“Maybe they’re going to put him on the ticket then.”
— Tad Devine, chief strategist for Sen. Bernie Sanders, suggesting to Politico that Sanders could be Hillary Clinton’s running mate.
Foreign Diplomats Express Concern Over Trump
Foreign diplomats are expressing alarm to U.S. government officials about what they say are inflammatory and insulting public statements by Donald Trump, Reuters reports.
“Officials from Europe, the Middle East, Latin America and Asia have complained in recent private conversations, mostly about the xenophobic nature of Trump’s statements… The three officials declined to disclose a full list of countries whose diplomats have complained, but two said they included at least India, South Korea, Japan and Mexico.”
“U.S. officials said it was highly unusual for foreign diplomats to express concern, even privately, about candidates in the midst of a presidential campaign. U.S. allies in particular usually don’t want to be seen as meddling in domestic politics, mindful that they will have to work with whoever wins.”
The Real Reason Conservatives Fear Trump
Jonathan Chait: “People get worked up during presidential campaigns. But the rise of Donald Trump has provoked conservative intellectuals to express their dismay in existential tones. Conservative writers have used terms like unmitigated, unalloyed, potentially unsalvageable disaster to describe a Trump nomination… Marco Rubio has made this kind of talk the lingua franca of his once relentlessly chummy campaign, warning that the Republican Party ‘would split apart’ were Trump to prevail. Trump’s opponents have planned for the kinds of dire, schismatic responses not seen in generations of American presidential politics: using the party’s summer convention, normally a scripted infomercial, to wrest the nomination from him. Or even bolting the GOP to start a third party.”
“The fear inspired by Trump is not merely that he would blow the party’s chances of winning the presidency (though he probably would), or even that he would saddle it with long-term damage among the growing Latino bloc (though he would do that as well). It is that Trump would release the conservative movement’s policy hammerlock on the Republican Party.”
Why Trump Needs to Win Florida and Ohio
First Read: “After five Republican contests over the weekend, Donald Trump has just an 87-delegate lead over Ted Cruz, 392-305. And as one plugged-in GOP rules expert tells us, that lead is probably narrower than that. Why? Well, 112 delegates (representing 9% out of 1,237 needed for the nomination) are unbound because there is NO statewide presidential vote — like in Colorado. This all underscores, once again, how important the winner-take-all states of Florida and Ohio on March 15 are to Trump’s path to 1,237. They aren’t luxuries, they’re necessities.”
Could Cruz End Up as the Establishment Choice?
Rick Klein: “What if the establishment lane was never open for business in the first place? What if the problem wasn’t traffic problems, or a Bush in the road, or that fancy boots got stuck in sticky pavement? With Chris Christie and Jeb Bush gone, and Marco Rubio and John Kasich left scrambling to win their home states, Republicans are facing the prospect of seeing Ted Cruz emerge as their main alternative to Donald Trump. That may be a prospect less likely than Trump as frontrunner: Cruz could wind up being the establishment’s actual choice in a winnowed field.”
“Trump can be beaten – his most recent showings suggest new and continuing vulnerabilities – though not by just anybody, it would appear. By all appearances, Rubio has only gotten weaker from attempts by the party’s elected leaders and money folks to rally behind him. Cruz needs to be careful what he wishes for, on a couple levels. Asked about a contested convention, Cruz said on CBS that powerbrokers choosing a nominee at a convention would be ‘illegitimate’ and ‘wrong.’ We’ll see how he feels as we get closer to Cleveland.”
Another Poll Shows Trump Way Ahead in Michigan
A new Fox 2 Detroit/Mitchell Research poll in Michigan finds Donald Trump leading the GOP presidential race with 42%, followed by John Kasich at 20%, Ted Cruz at 19% and Marco Rubio at 9%.
Inside the Rubio Meltdown
Washington Post: “Party leaders, donors and other supporters of Rubio portray a political operation that continues to come up short in its message, in its attention to the fundamentals of campaigning and in its use of a promising politician. The failures have all but doomed Rubio’s chances of securing the GOP nomination, leaving him far behind Trump and Cruz in both delegates and states won.”
For members: Why Rubio Could Finish Third in Florida
