A new Public Policy Polling survey in Florida shows Donald Trump way ahead of the GOP field with 45%, followed by Marco Rubio at 25%, Ted Cruz at 10%, John Kasich at 8% and Ben Carson at 5%.
In a two-man race with Rubio, Trump still leads by double digits at 52% to 38%.
A new SurveyUSA poll in Georgia finds Donald Trump leading Republicans with 45%, followed by Marco Rubio at 19%, Ted Cruz at 16%, Ben Carson at 8% and John Kasich at 6%.
A new WABE poll finds Trump leading with 41%, followed by Rubio at 18%, Cruz at 15%, Carson at 7% and Kasich at 7%.
A new Monmouth poll in Virginia shows Donald Trump leading the GOP primary field with 41%, followed by Marco Rubio at 27%, Ted Cruz at 14%, John Kasich at 7% and Ben Carson at 7%.
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Sen. Marco Rubio finally went after Donald Trump hard in a debate. He attacked relentlessly and landed some solid punches — particularly by exposing the fact that Trump really doesn’t have a plan to replace Obamacare. (Of course, Rubio doesn’t have a health care plan either.) Rubio also slammed Trump for comparing Middle East peace to a real estate deal. Rubio had Trump against the ropes for most of the night and clearly got under his skin.
As soon as Ted Cruz smelled blood, he also turned his attacks on Trump. He was especially effective raising questions about the audit of Trump’s tax returns and the fraud charges surrounding Trump University. If Trump wins the GOP nomination, expect Democrats to use both issues quite effectively against him in the general election.
The interesting thing about Rubio and Cruz attacking Trump is that it wasn’t as much about convincing Trump voters to switch allegiance as it was about being seen the Trump alternative. Rubio clearly won that argument. He was much more effective than Cruz.
But for someone who was attacked literally from both sides for more than two hours, Trump actually did fairly well. After months of practice, Trump is much better at these debates. I’m not sure he would have held up to these attacks a few months ago. But neither Rubio or Cruz came close to landing a knockout punch. They drew blood, but Trump was still standing.
Trump is not good when talking about actual issues but he’s great when talking about winning. He repeatedly referred to his huge lead in the polls and his big victories in New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada. It’s effective for two reasons: 1. It suggests the attacks by Rubio and Cruz are from desperate candidates and 2. the media loves to cover the horserace.
John Kasich was a non-factor in the debate. But after Rubio established himself as the leading Trump-alternative, expect the calls for him to leave the race to get louder. The longer he stays in the race, the more he helps Trump. He’s now playing the role of spoiler.
Ben Carson talked about fruit salad.
The runaway winner of this debate was the Democratic party. If there are many more nights like this one, the Democratic nominee will have a much easier time in November. It was a truly pathetic mess.
The five remaining Republican presidential candidates meet in Houston for a debate at 8:30 p.m. ET.
The debate will be broadcast on CNN.
For members: Can Trump Be Stopped at Tonight’s Debate?
A Bloomberg poll of Super Tuesday states in the South find that Donald Trump continues to hold a substantial lead with 37% support, followed by Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz tied at 20%.
In hypothetical head-to-head GOP primary match-ups, Trump beats Rubio 48% to 44% and Cruz 49% to 40%.
“He’s just generally a loser as a person and a candidate. You can’t nominate a nut job and lose and expect it doesn’t have consequences.”
— Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), quoted by the AP, predicting that Donald Trump will win the Republican nomination but lose the general election.
“Marco Rubio’s campaign is preparing for a contested Republican Convention as one option to take the GOP nomination away from Donald Trump and Ted Cruz,” CNN reports.
Rubio’s campaign manager laid out the two paths for donors: “The first showed the number of states and delegates Rubio would need to clinch the nomination outright before July’s convention. The second was the scenario in which none of the candidates gain the simple majority delegates needed to clinch the nomination before the convention, unleashing a messy and potentially unpredictable battle where multiple candidates are vying for the title.”
Former Mexican president Vicente Fox explained to Fusion his views on Donald Trump’s plan to build a wall on the U.S.-Mexican border.
Said Fox: “I’m not going to pay for that fucking wall! He should pay for it. He’s got the money.”
Sen. Harry Reid told CNN that he’s stunned to see Mitt Romney demanding Donald Trump’s tax returns.
Said Reid: “All I know, I can’t imagine Romney having the gall coming after anybody’s returns. Let’s look at his. He never gave us his tax returns. Who was the brainchild who got him to do that? Romney never gave us his tax returns. He did not — he gave us his summary, he didn’t give us our tax returns.”
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Early last year, the concept of “lanes” to the Republican nomination took over as the preferred metaphor for the Republican presidential race.
The Washington Post broke down the race into five lanes: religious voters, Tea Partiers, very conservative voters, establishment voters and Libertarians.
The winner of two or more of these lanes, it was assumed, would be in a good position to win the nomination.
While this is an interesting narrative for journalists to use while analyzing a crowded field of 17 candidates, it’s been a disaster for campaign strategists. As Donald Trump’s campaign gained traction over the summer, his rivals did nothing to stop him.
Most saw Trump as an unorthodox candidate who was not competing in their so-called “lane.” The other candidates safely assumed they could ignore Trump because they had plotted their own strategy to win their “lane” of the Republican primary.
However, the most interesting “lane” turned out to be Trump’s, as David Corn notes:
It seems to be a lane all its own. At times, it doesn’t seem to be part of the regular GOP highway. Maybe it’s an HOV lane. Or an off-road bypass. Trump can blast away at the party elite, defend Planned Parenthood, tick off the pope, decry the Iraq War, and accuse George W. Bush of lying and call for his impeachment, and the voters in his lane—which, according to exit polls, includes a healthy mix of Republicans who say they are evangelical Christians—don’t mind at all. Like Kramer in the 150th episode of Seinfeld, Trump has repainted the lanes, and his is wide enough to include a mishmash of voters. His folks care not about the usual Republican conventions.
So while Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, and the others have been content to fight for segments of the electorate, Trump has been competing for all Republican votes.
That’s the only formula for winning.
Nevada Gov. Brian Sandoval announced that he’s declining a possible nomination for the U.S. Supreme Court, the Reno Gazette Journal reports.
Said Sandoval: “Earlier today, I notified the White House that I do not wish to be considered at this time for possible nomination to the Supreme Court of the United States. I have also spoken to Senators Reid, Heller and McConnell and expressed the same desire to them. The notion of being considered for a seat on the highest court in the land is beyond humbling and I am incredibly grateful to have been mentioned.”
Huffington Post: “Multiple Republican campaign sources and operatives have confided that none of the remaining candidates for president have completed a major anti-Trump opposition research effort. There are several such efforts being run by outside conservative organizations. But those efforts are still gathering intel on the businessman after having started late in the primary season, these sources told The Huffington Post. And they worry that it may come too late. … For those hoping to blunt Trump’s momentum, the late start on opposition research is no small problem. One operative compared it to not having ammunition at the precise moment when there is a collective realization that a Trump candidacy needs to be shot down.”
“It is treated as a truism among Republicans that a vast reservoir of damaging opposition research remains untouched. It’s a suspicion that Democrats aren’t challenging. Indeed, one Democratic opposition research said that they’ve spent the past eight months compiling material on Trump as he’s risen up the ranks. That’s actually not a lot of time. Democrats had started focusing on Mitt Romney in 2009 — a full two years before he ran again for the presidency. But those eight months have produced some good. That researcher estimated that of all the material they’ve compiled — court and property records, newspaper clips and videos — approximately 80 percent of it has yet to surface in this election cycle.”
Former KKK grand wizard David Duke is encouraging his radio listeners to vote for Donald Trump, The Hill reports.
Duke said voting for Trump’s rivals, including Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz, is “really treason to your heritage,” calling the Republican establishment “your enemy.”
A new Monmouth University Poll in Texas finds Ted Cruz leading with 38%, followed by Donald Trump at 23%, Marco Rubio at 21%, Ben Carson at 6% and John Kasich at 5%.
A new Quinnipiac poll in Florida finds Donald Trump leading the GOP presidential with 44%, followed by favorite son Marco Rubio at 28%, Ted Cruz at 12%, John Kasich at 7% and Ben Carson at 4%.
Said pollster Peter Brown: “Florida is the single biggest prize of the primary season because it is the largest state to allocate its delegates on a winner-take-all basis. If Sen. Rubio can’t win in his own home state, it is difficult to see how he can win elsewhere.”
“Donald Trump said he’d likely look for someone with political experience as a running mate if he wins the nomination — maybe even someone he has run against,” Bloomberg reports.
Said Trump: “I would want somebody that could help me with government, so most likely that would be a political person. You want somebody that can help you with legislation, getting it through.”
Trump didn’t mention any names from the 2016 Republican field, but did say that “some of the people I’ve dealt with I do have a lot of respect for and I like.”
Joe Klein: “Trump knows exactly what he’s doing. His policy ignorance is a strategy. Every position he takes is carefully calibrated to elicit a reflexive response from his supporters. His campaign is about fears that have existed since before we became sapiens–fear of the other, fear of going hungry, the joy of martial triumph. He has been brilliant at picking those primal scabs. He has an uncanny ability to find the perfect brickbat to throw at his opponents: ‘low-energy’ for Jeb Bush, ‘nasty’ for Cruz, ‘not a feminist’ for Hillary Clinton. He hasn’t taken on Rubio yet, but I’m sure the attack will be precise and devastating.”
“His has also been the perfect campaign for television. He is outrageous, which is more fun than substance or sobriety. Outrage brings ratings, the one true currency in the desperately competitive world of broadcast news. This is another primal truth that Trump has figured out: the qualities that the Great American Audience now values most are the least presidential.”
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.
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