A new American Research Group poll in South Carolina finds Donald Trump leading the GOP presidential race with 33%, followed by Marco Rubio at 16%, Ted Cruz at 14%, John Kasich at 14%, Jeb Bush at 9% and Ben Carson at 3%.
In the Democratic race, Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders, 61% to 31%.
A tracking poll from South Carolina House Republicans finds Trump leading with 34%, followed by Cruz at 16%, Rubio at 15%, Bush at 15%, Kasich at 8% and Carson at 7%.
New York Times: “It is as if Mrs. Clinton’s campaign, based partly on revealing the power of female voters, has instead revealed something else: a generational schism that threatens to undermine it. Mrs. Clinton lost the women’s vote in New Hampshire by 11 percentage points. Broken down by age, the results were even more striking: She led by 19 points among women 65 and older, but trailed by a huge margin, 59 points, among millennial voters, ages 18 to 29.”
New York Times: “His style has rendered him, weirdly, almost comedy-proof. Election parodies traditionally exaggerate candidates. But Mr. Trump exaggerates himself — he’s the frilled lizard of politics, inflating his self-presentation to appear ever larger. Satire exposes candidates’ contradictions and absurdities. But Mr. Trump blows past those, while his supporters cheer.”
“Whatever anyone thought of Mr. Trump as a candidate, the consensus was that he would be a one-man stimulus program for comedians. He’s given them plenty of material, but little of it has stuck. As Mr. Trump has defied conventional politics and confounded conventional pundits, so has he frustrated conventional satire.”
Politico: Trump to phone in to Late Night with Stephen Colbert
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Sen. Charles Grassley (R-IA), chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, told Radio Iowa that he had not ruled out holding hearings on President Obama’s eventual nominee to replace Justice Antonin Scalia on the Supreme Court.
Said Grassley: “I would wait until the nominee is made before I would make any decisions. This is a very serious position to fill and it should be filled and debated during the campaign and filled by either Hillary Clinton, Senator Sanders or whoever’s nominated by the Republicans.”
Sen. Ted Cruz “is getting hammered by his Republican rivals over what they call a pattern of unethical campaign tactics and inaccurate statements by the Texas senator who has shaped his White House bid around trust,” the AP reports.
“Cruz has had some trouble getting all his facts straight in debates, has used campaign tactics that some find suspicious and had an ad by an outside group temporarily pulled for questions about its accuracy. His opponents are blunter, calling him simply a liar.”
A new CNN/ORC poll in South Carolina finds Donald Trump leading the GOP field with 38%, followed by Ted Cruz at 22%, Marco Rubio at 14% support, Jeb Bush at 10%, Ben Carson at 6% and John Kasich at 4%.
Key takeaway: “The poll suggests Trump’s support may have softened after Saturday’s debate among the GOP candidates. In interviews conducted before the debate, 40% backed Trump, compared with 31% who said they supported him after the raucous matchup between the remaining candidates in the field.”
In the Democratic race, Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders, 56% to 38%.
CNBC financial commentator Larry Kudlow announced that he will not run for the U.S. Senate in Connecticut this year, the Hartford Courant reports.
Said Kudlow: “The best course for me was to do exactly what I’m doing, which I love. That was the bottom, bottom line… I love being a broadcaster. I love it so much that I don’t want to give it up.”
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A brawl over President Obama’s pick to fill the Supreme Court vacancy created by the death of Justice Antonin Scalia is already spilling from the presidential campaign into some of the most hotly contested Senate races.
Incumbent Republicans in five important swing states have already called for the U.S. Senate to disregard any nominee put forth by President Obama.
In New Hampshire, the New Hampshire Union Leader reports that Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R) says “the Senate should not move forward with the confirmation process until the American people have spoken by electing a new President.”
In North Carolina, the Winston Salem Journal reports that Sen. Richard Burr (R) said “the vacancy left open by Justice Antonin Scalia should not be filled until there is a new president.”
In Ohio, the Columbus Dispatch reports that Sen. Rob Portman (R) says the Senate “should hold off confirming a replacement for Antonin Scalia on the U.S. Supreme Court until a new president takes office in January.”
In Pennsylvania, the Allentown Morning Call reports that Sen. Pat Toomey (R) “joined fellow Republicans in arguing that a nominee to replace Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia should be picked by the next president instead of President Obama.”
In Wisconsin, the Wisconsin State Journal reports that Sen. Ron Johnson (R) “does not want President Obama to nominate a replacement for U.S. Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia.”
That’s five Senators in very competitive races who have sided with leaving Scalia’s seat on the court vacant for at least another 11 months. Republican candidates in several other swing states — Illinois, Colorado, Nevada and Florida — have either not yet taken a position or have not been nominated yet.
Democrats only need four seats to take control of the Senate (assuming they also win the White House). It’s a near certainty that the battle for the Senate will ride on this issue.
A new Wason Center poll in Virginia finds that Donald Trump leads the GOP presidential race with 28%, followed by Marco Rubio at 22%, Ted Cruz at 19%, Ben Carson at 7%, John Kasich at 7% and Jeb Bush at 4%.
In the Democratic race, Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders 52% to 40%.
The Virginia primary is on March 1.
Former Goldman Sachs partner Peter Kiernan is quoted by Bloomberg referring to the speaking fees paid to Hillary Clinton as “Hillary’s Goldman handcuffs.”
“It’s because he fears me, because I’m the only guy standing up to him.”
— Jeb Bush, quoted by Politico, on why Donald Trump constantly attacks him.
Donald Trump spoke to radio host Michael Savage and added fuel to the conspiracy theory that Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia was murdered, saying that one of the details of his death was “pretty unusual.”
“The worst attack ever in this country? It was during his presidency.”
— Donald Trump, quoted by the New York Times, attacking former President George W. Bush.
Rick Klein: “If Donald Trump captures the Republican Party’s nomination, the party itself will almost need a new name. He’s not running for the GOP but against it – against the party’s formal structure, its biggest players, and, yes, some of its core values. Consider his actions just since this past weekend. Trump is accusing the Republican Party of breaking its pledge to treat him fairly, in an implicit threat of a third-party run; saying that the GOP’s most-recent, two-term president tied the nation into a war; mocking the two leading establishment candidates, Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio, for energy level and propensity to perspire, respectively; and calling his leading rival, Ted Cruz, ‘very unstable’ and the biggest liar he’s ever come into contact with.”
“The biggest shocker is that Trump might win South Carolina and much more because of such statements, not in spite of them. For those who have come up under existing power structures – and that list includes Bush, Rubio, Cruz, and John Kasich – Trump’s continued strength is confounding, dangerous, and yet very much reality.”
Rush Limbaugh has a theory: “I think Trump strategically was making a move on independents and Democrats in South Carolina since it’s open. And I think that he wants to wrap this up ASAP. I think he wants a blow ’em out, going-away win in South Carolina. I think he just wants to wrap this up.”
“Marco Rubio, currently running third in the race for the Republican presidential nomination, must be hoping that scenic Vancouver can give him a push past frontrunners Donald Trump and Ted Cruz,” the National Post reports.
“The Florida senator’s latest campaign ad, titled Morning Again in America, opens with three seconds of beautiful stock footage featuring our skyline and harbour.”
The Public Policy Polling survey in South Carolina that shows Donald Trump leading the GOP presidential race also shows his support is built on a base of voters among whom religious and racial intolerance pervades.
Most interesting: “70% think the Confederate flag should still be flying over the State Capital, to only 20% who agree with it being taken down. In fact 38% of Trump voters say they wish the South had won the Civil War to only 24% glad the North won and 38% who aren’t sure. Overall just 36% of Republican primary voters in the state are glad the North emerged victorious to 30% for the South, but Trump’s the only one whose supporters actually wish the South had won.”
First Read: “Maybe more importantly, this political fight over Scalia’s eventual successor could finally break the U.S. Senate, Congress, and all of Washington. Think about: The past congressional fights have been over things like the debt ceiling, the sequester, and the fiscal cliff. But this is the Supreme Court — something that isn’t as esoteric to most Americans. Ditto the fact that a vacancy could last a year or longer. This is a big deal. It’s maybe not a constitutional crisis yet. But it could certainly head that way.”
Jon Ralston: “The Clinton panic is palpable. Clinton spent Monday in Nevada and sent her husband to fill in at Florida events after her campaign clearly sensed the firewall buckling here. … There is a dearth of reliable public polling in Nevada, but no one on either side has asserted the race is not in reach for Sanders.”
James Hohmann: “Clinton aides have bent over backwards to lower expectations as Saturday approaches, exaggerating the share of the electorate that will be white.”
First Read notes “the body language tells us where the race is despite the lack of a single good public poll out there. Hillary Clinton is nervous (see her additional campaigning in Nevada yesterday), while Bernie Sanders seems like the guy who’s feeling confident (see his campaigning in Michigan, not Nevada, yesterday).”
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.
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